1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach — Tips & Analysis

Borussia Mönchengladbach +0.5: Köln do not beat anyone by much. They have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 16 games, and they now play this derby without both of their centre forwards. Ache and Dallinga are out, which leaves Bülter leading the line. Köln have won only three of those last 16 games and they let in more than 2 goals a game. They have also scored exactly one goal in three of their four league games. Gladbach are in a bad place. They sit bottom of the league with no points from four games and they have let in 16 goals in those four. They do keep scoring though, more than a goal a game, and 8 of their last 12 games had 3 or more goals. Alexander Blessin takes charge for the first time here, which gives a broken side a fresh start. The derby itself backs the away team. Gladbach have won nine of the last 20 meetings to Köln's seven, and the last five finished 3-3, 1-3, 3-3, 3-1 and 0-0. An open 2-2 is the honest read, and that is the sort of result this pick is built on. The risk is obvious. Gladbach have lost four in a row and their defending has been a mess, so a Köln win by 2 is live. We still back Gladbach to come away from this derby without losing.