Liverpool vs Manchester City — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.25: Liverpool have no centre forward fit, and that shapes this whole game. Isak, Gakpo and Ekitike are all out or major doubts, and Chiesa is a worry too. Wirtz or Barcola through the middle is the likely fix, and neither is a natural number nine. A side improvising up front rarely runs up a big score. Liverpool have been hard to beat at Anfield, with six wins, four ties and two losses there, letting in just over a goal a game. Their recent run has been tight at the back and blunt in front of goal. City are the better side right now. They sit top of the league on five straight wins, and they let in only 1 goal a game in their away games. They tend to take hold of a game rather than trade punches, and Foden is serving the last of his ban. Both teams come back from three weeks away from club football, and rust slows these nights down. A 1-2 City win is the honest read, and we want the night to stay in that low-scoring range or quieter rather than open up. The warning is the history. City have won the last three meetings 4-0, 2-1 and 3-0, and the last 20 games between these two averaged just over 3 goals a game. City score more than 2 goals a game, so they can put a night out of sight. With Liverpool short of forwards, we still want the quieter game.