Southampton vs Portsmouth — Tips & Analysis

Southampton -0.75: Portsmouth travel to this derby with seven players ruled out, among them Anderson, Murphy and Ogilvie. Southampton are missing only Jander. The gap in available bodies is wider than the gap in the table. Southampton have been strong at St Mary's, where they have won 5 of their 8 home games, tying 2 and losing 1. They score almost 3 goals a game at home, and they have won 7, tied 5 and lost 4 of their last 16 games. Portsmouth score just over a goal a game and let in just over one. They have lost by 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 14 games, so a heavy afternoon is in them. Both sides have had three weeks off, so legs will be fresh and the game should stretch. Southampton's home attack is the clear difference, and a patched up Portsmouth side has to live with it for 90 minutes. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest score, and that lands on the right side of this bet. Any win by 2 or more makes it comfortable. The risk is the derby itself. Four of the last five meetings ended level, and the two most recent finished 1-1 and 0-0. Portsmouth dig in for this game, so a tie is a live result even with so many out. We are still with Southampton to win it and win it well.