Lazio vs Monza — Tips & Analysis

Monza +1: Lazio keep winning, but they win small. They have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 13 games, and their recent league wins read 2-0, 2-1, 1-0 and 1-0. That is the shape we are backing. Lazio are third with 13 points from five games and still unbeaten in the league, so this is no knock on them. Their midfield is patched up though. Rovella is out, Marusic and Gudmundsson are missing too, and Cataldi has only just got back into training. Monza are better than 15th makes them look. They have six wins in their last 14, they score more than a goal a game, and they have scored in each of their last six. Their games are busy as well, bringing just over 3 goals in total on average. Lazio's quality should still tell at the Olimpico. A 2-1 Lazio win is the honest read, and that is not quite enough for this pick. We want Monza to go one better and take a point, which their scoring run makes realistic. A Lazio side missing three players after three weeks off is a fair target. The clear risk is history. Lazio have not lost any of the last six meetings with Monza, winning three of the last five. We still think Monza stay close enough here.