Arouca vs Estrela — Tips & Analysis

Arouca -0.25: Arouca at home is the backbone of this pick. They have 5 wins, 1 tie and 1 loss at their own ground. They score more than 2 goals a game there and let in just over one. Estrela's away games are wide open. They have let in at least 2 goals in each of their last five away games. They have won only 2 of their last 11 games, and they have not won by 2 or more in any of them. The game should be open. Estrela have had 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 11, and every away trip has been end to end. That suits the home side, because Arouca have the better defence and let in just over a goal a game. A 2-1 Arouca win is the honest read, and that is exactly the kind of result we want here. Two things could beat us. Estrela tie a lot, six of their 11 games, and they have scored at least twice in every away game. That makes a 2-2 live. Arouca also have a brand new manager. Vítor Severino was appointed on 4 October, and this is his first game and his first job as a head coach anywhere. We are still backing Arouca to win it.