Tips — Monday, 12 October 2026

💬 Albacete are the weakest team in this division right now. They have one point from eight games, a goal difference of minus 10, and their last five results read LLLDL. They also travel with six players injured, including Samu Obeng and Antonio Puertas, who are both out long term. Valladolid are a different side at home. They have won four of their six games at the Jose Zorrilla, scoring just over a goal a game there and letting in a goal a game. On the road they have not won at all, so this is the kind of game their season is built on. The catch is that Valladolid barely score. They manage under a goal a game overall and have won by 2 or more goals only twice in their last 15. So expect a nervy afternoon decided by one goal, with Albacete holding out for an hour before they crack. A 1-0 home win is the most likely score, and a home win of any kind does the job. The worry is recent history. Valladolid have won only one of the last six against Albacete, and they did not score at all in four of the last five meetings. A goalless afternoon is a real danger with this attack. We still want Valladolid at home here.

💬 Atalanta have stopped winning games by big margins, and that is the case here. They have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 16 games. At home they have scored under a goal a game across eight matches, so goals are hard work for them right now. They are also without Hien and Kossounou from the middle of defence. Venezia are bottom of Serie A with no points from five games. They have lost all five and are nine goals worse off than their opponents. Their team news is grim too. Adorante is out with a hernia, and centre-backs Bella-Kotchap and Sverko are missing as well. So we are not arguing that Venezia get a result here. We are backing them to lose this narrowly. Atalanta have won four of the last five games between the two sides and lost none, and those meetings averaged just over 2 goals. All four of those Atalanta wins came by 2 or more goals, so the history is a worry. A 1-0 Atalanta win is the most likely score, and a one goal game is exactly what we want. The danger is a collapse from a patched up away side. Venezia have lost by 2 or more goals in four of their last 15 games. Both teams have also had more than three weeks off, so fitness and team news are a guess. We still expect Atalanta to win this without ever pulling clear.

💬 Oviedo cannot score, and that is the heart of this one. They have managed under a goal a game at their own ground across eight home matches, and four of those eight ended in ties. Their attack is also stripped bare. Christopher Ramos, Carlos Fernandez, Estanis Pedrola and Juan Cruz are all out injured. The solid part of Oviedo is the defence, which lets in under a goal a game at home. Eibar are the league leaders and have won their last five, so they do not need a wild game to take this. They let in under a goal a game on the road as well, so they are happy to control a game and win it by one. The history between these two backs that up. The last 11 meetings averaged under 2 goals, only two of the 11 had 3 or more goals, and five ended in ties. A 0-1 Eibar win is the most likely score, and a game like that keeps us well on the right side of this. The clear danger is Eibar's attack. They score 2 goals a game, and 11 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals. If they go ahead early and Oviedo have to push out, this could open up. But Oviedo do not have the forwards to chase a game like that, so we want the quiet version.

💬 Two blunt attacks meet here, and that is why we want the quiet game. Only 2 of every 5 meetings between these two have gone past 2 goals. Torino have barely made a chance across their last four games. They score just over a goal a game and they have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 16. Torino have won only 1 of their last 5, so this is not a side about to run riot. Udinese travel without Gueye, Piotrowski and Zaniolo, which strips out most of their midfield. They score more than a goal a game and let in more than a goal. Both teams come back from 23 days off, so both will be rusty and the first half should be tight. A 1-1 is the most likely score. Both sides have one goal in them and neither looks like finding a second. The risk here is real. Udinese's last five away games have been busy ones, with more than 2 goals scored and more than 2 let in. Torino have also had 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 16 games. If this one opens up early we are beaten. The state of both attacks says it stays low, so we are taking the quiet game.

💬 Metz are the most stubborn away side in this division, and that is the main reason we are on Dijon. Four of Metz's last five away games have been ties. They score about a goal a game on the road and let in just over one. Metz have also tied 6 of their last 11 games, so their average winning or losing margin is close to nothing. They keep games level. Dijon are the better side here. They have won 6, tied 4 and lost only 3 of their last 13, and they score more than a goal a game. Metz have won just 2 of their last 11. Metz also have a brand new head coach in charge for the first time, so caution is likely from the away side. Both teams come back from more than three weeks off, and Dijon are missing four players. That points to a slow, scrappy night rather than an open one. A 1-1 tie is the most likely score, and a shared night suits us fine. The worry is Dijon's own ground. Their last seven home games read 3 wins, 1 tie and 3 losses, and they have let in more at home than on their travels. So this is not the comfortable home night their 13-game record hints at. Metz still look too blunt to win it, so we are happy to take Dijon.

💬 Tallaght has been a busy ground lately, and that is the case for goals here. Rovers are unbeaten in their last 10 at home, winning 8 and tying 2. In those games they have scored almost 3 goals a game and let in just over one. Across all games, Rovers have had 3 or more goals in 12 of their last 19. Bohemians match that appetite. They score almost 2 goals a game and have won their last 5 league games. Bohemians have also had 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 19 games. They sit 3rd on 59 points, three behind Rovers, with a title race still on. Neither side can afford to sit back and play for a point. A 2-1 Rovers win is the most likely score, and three of the last five meetings between these two finished exactly that. That is the kind of open night we want. Two things give us pause. Rovers are missing three forwards in Asamoah, Mandroiu and Gaffney, which blunts the home attack. Only half of the last 20 meetings produced more than 2 goals, and Bohemians played a cup tie just three days ago. A tired, careful night between two sides with plenty to lose is how this goes wrong. We still back the goals.

💬 Neither of these two can find the net right now, and that is the case for the quiet game. Coventry have scored one goal in five league games. That goal came in a 1-0 win at Nottingham Forest, their most recent game. In the four league games before that, they did not score at all. They are also missing five players, including Awoniyi, who was sent off. Newcastle are not much better. They have scored under a goal a game across their last six away trips, winning 2, tying 1 and losing 3. They have made very few chances in their last four games, and seven of their own men carry knocks. Two teams who cannot score, both short of bodies, after 23 days off. That is the recipe for a nervous night with very few clear chances. A 0-1 Newcastle win is the most likely score. They have enough control to win a poor game by the only goal without ever cutting loose. The catch is what else happened in Coventry's run. They lost 0-5 and 0-3 in it, so when they get picked apart, they get picked apart badly. Coventry's games have also had 3 goals in total on average. One rout and we lose this. Both attacks are too cold for that, so we still think the goals stay scarce.

💬 Tenerife at the Heliodoro are very hard to score against, and that is why we are with them. They have let in under a goal a game across their last seven home games, winning 5, tying 1 and losing 1. Only 1 of their last 14 games has been a loss by 2 goals or more, so heavy beatings are not their thing. Girona are tidy on the road but toothless. They have given up a pile of chances in their last three away games and made very little of their own. Girona score just over a goal a game, and they have won 4, tied 5 and lost 5 of their last 14. That is a beatable away side, not a team that comes to Tenerife and takes over. The last 10 meetings between the two averaged just over 2 goals, so expect a tight, low scoring night. A 1-0 for Tenerife is the most likely score. One set piece or one scramble decides games like this, and the home side look likelier to get it. Girona are in better form though, with 3 wins in their last 5 and three points more than Tenerife. Away from this ground Tenerife were beaten 0-5 at Castellon, so the solid defending is a home thing only. On their own patch they are a different side, so we are happy to be with the hosts.

💬 Sevilla have stopped creating, and that is the main reason we lean to the quiet game. They have made very few chances across their last four games and have been grinding out 1-0 wins instead. Sevilla score just over a goal a game and let in just over one. Their last five away games read 3 wins, 1 tie and 1 loss, with almost 2 goals scored and a goal let in. That is control, not fireworks. Levante are no juggernaut either. They have won 6, tied 3 and lost 5 of their last 14, and they let in more than a goal a game. Marcao is out for Sevilla and Levante list three men as doubtful, Etta Eyong among them. Both sides come back from more than three weeks off, so expect rust and a slow build. A 1-1 is the most likely score. Levante take something off the fifth placed side without being good enough to beat them, and the total stays down. Now the honest part. Levante have won 5 of their last 6 at home and scored more than 2 goals a game in that run. The last two meetings ended 2-0 and 3-0, and the last 20 have averaged 3 goals in total. This one is close, so treat it as our pick of the game rather than a lock. We still want the low scoring night.

💬 Famalicao do not win games by big margins. They have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 14 games, and they have tied eight of those 14. That is the main reason we are on Alverca staying close. Famalicao score just over a goal a game and let in almost a goal a game, so their matches are tight by habit. At their own ground they have won once and tied four times in seven. Alverca are the worry. They have won once and lost five of their six away games. They barely score on the road and let in more than a goal a game away from home. They also travel without five injured players, including Bastien Meupiyou and Nabil Touaizi. Famalicao are missing Tommie van de Looi, and Romeo Beney is suspended. The last three meetings averaged under 2 goals, and Famalicao won the most recent one 1-0 here in May. A 1-0 home win is the most likely score again, and that is not the result we want. Alverca have to keep this within a goal. Anything worse than a one goal defeat and this is gone. Both sides have also had 23 days off, so rhythm and team news are a guess. We still think this stays tight enough for Alverca.