Tips — Sunday, 13 September 2026

💬 Tokyo Verdy cannot score, and that alone makes this a quiet game. They have managed one goal in their last five league games, losing 0-2 to Vissel Kobe and 0-2 to Kashima, with 0-0 ties at Cerezo and Fagiano. They score under a goal a game. It gets worse for them. Verdy lost defender Miyahara, midfielder Morita and forward Teranuma to injury this week, so an attack that was already stuck now has less to work with. Chiba are a poor team, with three wins, three ties and 13 losses in their last 19 games, and they score just over a goal a game. But they have turned up here in decent shape. They won 2-0 at home to Gamba Osaka in their last league game and have kept clean sheets in their last two. This is 19th against 20th, both on three points from six games. Neither manager can afford to lose it, so expect a careful, nervous afternoon with very little risk taken. A 1-1 is the most likely score, and that is exactly the sort of game we want. Be warned though. Chiba let in 2 goals a game away from home, and their own games have averaged 3 goals in total. The last 20 meetings here averaged almost 3 goals, so a third goal is a live threat. A team that has scored once in five games has to find a spark first, and we do not see it coming.

💬 These two do not give each other much room. The four meetings so far have all been tight, averaging under 2 goals a game. Urawa arrive on a four game winning run and will have most of the ball at Saitama. They score more than a goal a game, and they let in almost as many. Their wins come in scrappy games rather than easy ones. Okayama are the reason this one stays quiet. They let in less than a goal a game across their last 15 and they have not lost by 2 or more once in that run. They defend deep, give up the flanks and wait for one counter through the middle. That plan has already worked twice this year. Okayama took four points off Urawa, winning 2-0 on this ground in June and tying 1-1 in May. A 1-1 looks the most likely finish, and two goals is what a game of this shape usually gives you. The warning is real, though. Urawa's games average 3 goals and 8 of their last 17 had 3 or more, with recent scores of 3-2, 1-4 and 3-4. If their forwards keep that up, this gets away from us fast. We still think Okayama slow the game down, so we want the low-scoring afternoon.

💬 Utrecht's defense has fallen apart, and that is the whole case here. They let in more than 2 goals a game across their last 15, and their goal difference is minus 9 after five league games. Utrecht's games average just over 4 goals. Excelsior are just as open. 11 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals and they score almost 2 a game. Both sides give up chances every week, and neither is built to sit on a lead. Utrecht sit 15th with two points from five and they are missing seven players, including Engwanda, Jensen, Jonathans and Ohio. That is a short-handed side facing a team that beat them 5-0 the last time these clubs met. Utrecht have still scored in every game they have played, so they will get one back. The 20 meetings between these two average just over 3 goals, and Utrecht have tied 3-3 twice in their last four. A 2-1 Excelsior win is the most likely single score, and this game has plenty of ways to add a fourth. One worry stands out. Excelsior are much quieter at Woudestein than on the road, with a 2W-1D-4L home record. If they go ahead early and shut the game down, the goals can dry up. We are still backing the busy game.

💬 These two do not give each other much. The last 11 meetings average 2 goals a game, and most of them stayed quiet. Nothing in the table says that changes now. Thirteenth plays fourteenth with a single point between them, and both teams are short of players. Wolves are without Trippier, Mosquera and Bellegarde. Sheffield United are four short too, including Chong and One. Two short-handed squads usually means a slow game. Wolves are the tie specialists here. Six of their last 15 games ended level, more than any other result, and they score more than a goal a game. They also had seven days to get ready against Sheffield United's five, so they will be happy to keep the ball and take their time. Sheffield United have won 7, tied 3 and lost 4 of their last 14, and they are at their best hitting teams on the break. A 1-1 is the most likely finish, and two goals is what this matchup keeps producing. There is a clear worry, though. Bramall Lane has been the loose end of Sheffield United's season. They let in 2 goals a game there and 10 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. If those home habits win out over the head-to-head record, this gets busy. We still lean to the tight game.

💬 When these two meet, almost nothing happens. The last three games between them finished 0-0, 0-0 and 1-1, and across 17 meetings they average just over 2 goals a game. Prachuap are a big part of that. They are unbeaten in eight at home, 7W-1D-0L, and they have let in only 3 goals there in that whole run. They also barely score. Prachuap manage just over a goal a game and they did not score at all in three of their last five. Their games average 2 goals in total, and only 7 of their last 20 had 3 or more. Sukhothai will not open it up either. They have won once in twelve games on the road and score less than a goal a game away from home. Their habit on their travels is to pack men behind the ball. A 1-0 to Prachuap is the most likely finish, and one goal keeps this well clear. Two risks are worth knowing. Sukhothai let in almost 2 goals a game, so an early Prachuap goal could stretch the game open. Both squads are also just back from a long summer break, so the recent form here is not a firm guide. We still expect a slow, low-scoring afternoon.

💬 Heidenheim have lost both of their first-choice strikers for this one. Zivzivadze has been ill all week after scoring the winner at Greuther Fürth, Breunig has a torn muscle, and Conteh is hurt too. That is a good side asked to play without its front line. Heidenheim sit fourth and have won their last two, but the back door has been wide open. They have let in 15 goals in their last five, including 5 at fourth-tier Jeddeloh in the cup and 4 at Hertha. They let in more than 2 goals a game overall. Kiel are bottom on three points and that table position lies. They have won 6 and lost only 3 of their last 13, and they are unbeaten in four of their last five. On the road they are a real team at 4W-1D-2L. Kiel let in just over a goal a game, so they will not be run over here. The likely finish is a 1-2 to Kiel, with Heidenheim making chances and paying for the gaps they leave. The risk is history. Heidenheim have won 8 of the last 16 meetings between the clubs and lost only 4, so this is a game they usually handle. If a stand-in striker clicks early, they can still win it. We are with Kiel anyway.

💬 Two leaky defenses meet at the Wildpark, and neither looks close to fixing itself. Cottbus have let in 14 goals in their last five games, a run that includes a 4-4 at Wolfsburg and a home loss to Fürth. Karlsruhe are no tighter. Their home games average over 4 goals, and 12 of their last 14 games had 3 or more. They were beaten 5-2 at the Wildpark by Wolfsburg two weeks ago, and they let in almost 2 goals a game. Cottbus bring goals of their own. The promoted side score just over 2 goals a game, and 9 of their last 13 games had 3 or more. Karlsruhe are also a far better team at home than on the road, 4W-0D-3L at the Wildpark, so they will come forward rather than sit in. That points to an open, messy game with mistakes at both ends. A 2-2 is the most likely finish, and four goals clears what we need. Two things could spoil it. Karlsruhe are without forward Broschinski, who has an ankle problem, and the old meetings between these clubs were tight, though none of them has come since 2019. Cottbus are also newly promoted, so their scoring may not hold up at this level. We still want the goals here.

💬 Both of these teams turn up in busy games. Osnabrück's matches have just over 3 goals in them on average, and 8 of their last 13 had 3 or more. Hertha's games also have just over 3 goals in them on average. Osnabrück score almost 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal a game, so they do not keep things quiet. At the Bremer Brücke they have won 4, tied 1 and lost 2, and they get on the scoresheet at home. Hertha sit second with 12 points from four games and have won every league match so far. Those wins include a 4-1 and a 5-3, so this is not a side that shuts games down. They also let in almost 2 goals a game on the road, and Braunschweig put three past them. A home team that scores meets a travelling team that leaks goals. Our read is a 1-2 Hertha win. Three goals is the bare minimum here, so we want this one to open up a bit more than that. Both attacks are good enough to do that. The warning is the head to head. The last two meetings finished 2-1 and 0-0, and Hertha have already won 1-0 at Bochum this season. So a quiet night is possible. We still want the busier game here.

💬 Kalmar have stopped scoring. Their last four league games finished 0-1, 0-1, 0-0 and 0-4, so they have not scored in four games in a row. They have won one of nine away games and let in more than a goal a game on the road. A team in that state does not come to Borås and trade goals. Elfsborg do not blow sides away either. They let in 1 goal a game at Borås Arena, and only 9 of their last 19 games had 3 or more goals in them. They are short of bodies too, with Frick out with a broken ankle and Hagg and Rohden also missing. That is an attack that grinds a win out rather than one that runs up a score. Put the two together and the shape of the game picks itself. Elfsborg should have the ball and keep working for one opening. Our read is a 1-0 Elfsborg win, which is exactly the quiet game we want. The warning comes from the history. These two have averaged just over 3 goals across their last 19 meetings, and Kalmar won 2-1 at Borås in April. Kalmar have also tied 2-2 with Malmo this season, so the goals are in them when they click. We still think this one stays low.

💬 Hammarby are hard to score against at their own ground and busy at the other end. They have let in five goals in eight home games at 3Arena, where they have won 5, tied 1 and lost 2. They score more than 2 goals a game there, so a clear home win is the normal outcome. Hammarby have won by 2 or more goals in 7 of their last 19 games, which is the kind of margin this pick is built on. Brommapojkarna let in 2 goals a game on the road, where they have won 3, tied 2 and lost 5. They were beaten 0-4 at Gais on 31 August. They have won by 2 or more only 3 times in their last 19 games, so they rarely take a game away from anyone. Hammarby have also owned this matchup, winning 8 of the last 12 meetings. Our read is a 2-0 Hammarby win. That is the shape we want, and a third goal would leave nothing to worry about. The risk here is the derby. Brommapojkarna held Hammarby 1-1 at Grimsta in July and beat Elfsborg last time out, so they can sit in and frustrate. Hammarby are also without S. Kone. We still want Hammarby to win this one by a clear margin.

💬 Eldense have not scored an away goal in this division all season. They lost 0-1 at Leganes and 0-3 at Almeria, and they score less than a goal a game on the road. They sit 20th with two points from four games after coming up from the tier below. A side in that shape has to keep it goalless and hope, which is a hard way to take anything from El Molinón. Sporting are not flashy but they are solid at home. They have won 4, tied 2 and lost 2 there, letting in less than a goal a game. They have also beaten Eldense in 3 of the last 4 meetings and have not lost any of them. Our read is a 1-0 Sporting win, and that is all this pick needs. The worry is Sporting's own scoring. They are missing Hugo Guillamón, Gaspar Campos and striker Andrés Ferrari, and they score just over a goal a game at home. Eldense held Mallorca to 0-0 last week, so they can dig in for long spells. Sporting also lost 0-2 at home to Girona last time out, so this is not a side in perfect order. It will be nervy. We still back Sporting to find the one goal that wins it.

💬 Two of the weakest attacks in the division meet here. Celta have scored twice in five league games and score less than a goal a game across their last 15. Their matches have just over 2 goals in them on average. Malaga are even worse away from home. They have not scored an away goal in La Liga this season, losing 0-4 at Real Madrid and 0-2 at Atletico. They tied both home games 0-0 and 1-1, so quiet games are their normal. Malaga are missing five players, Calero, Diarra, Lobete, Murillo and Ochoa, which leaves them shorter still up front. Celta have Antanon out, with Borja Iglesias among the doubts, so neither attack arrives at full strength. The history fits too. The last 12 meetings have averaged just over 2 goals. Expect Celta to keep the ball, work for openings and win this with one moment. A 1-0 is our read, and that is a comfortable outcome for us. The risk is Celta's own home form. They have lost both home games this season, and 7 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals in them. One early goal could stretch this out. We still expect a tight, low-scoring afternoon.

💬 Goals follow both of these teams around. Chonburi's games have 3 goals in them on average and 10 of their last 20 had 3 or more. Rayong's games run a little higher, at just over 3 goals, with 11 of their last 20 hitting 3 or more. Chonburi have been strong at their own ground, winning 6 of their last 10 there and scoring almost 2 goals a game. They also beat Rayong 4-1 here in April. Rayong are the main reason this pick is on. They have won one of eleven away games and let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. They let in six at Ratchaburi and four at Uthai Thani on their travels last season. They do keep scoring though, and the last five meetings between these two have averaged 3 goals. Our read is a 2-1 Chonburi win, which is the sort of game this pick needs. The honest risk is that the season is only one round old. Rayong opened with a 1-0 home win over Prachuap, and Chonburi lost their opener at Chiangrai, so both may start carefully. Thai League squads change a lot between seasons too, so last year's habits may not hold. We still expect an open game with goals at both ends.

💬 Neither of these teams keeps a game quiet. Heerenveen's games have just over 3 goals in them on average, counting both teams, and 10 of their last 15 had 3 or more. They score more than a goal a game, and they let in more than a goal a game as well. Telstar are the same kind of side. They let in almost 2 goals a game, and 11 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. Telstar also played just four days ago at Twente, and they lost that one. Heerenveen have had a full week to get ready. That gap usually shows in the last half hour, when tired legs leave gaps at the back. The last three meetings between these two had just over 3 goals in them on average, so this one has a habit of opening up. Our read is a 2-1 Heerenveen win. The home side get ahead, Telstar get one back, and that is already a busy game. It is still one goal short of what we need, so we want this to keep running. With two defences this loose, a fourth goal is always live. The honest warning is that 4 or more goals have landed in only 6 of Heerenveen's last 15 games. Heerenveen are missing three players as well, so they may take fewer risks. We are still happy to back goals in this one.

💬 These two just do not produce goals together. The last five meetings finished 0-0, 2-1, 1-1, 1-1 and 1-0. Across the last ten meetings, only one in five had 3 or more goals. Lecce are a big reason why. They score under a goal a game, and at their own ground they have managed even less than that across six home games. Their games have just over 2 goals in them on average, and only 6 of their last 15 had 3 or more. Lecce are without Geubbels too, so a blunt attack is thinner still. Monza are not the side to blow this open. They sit 18th with one point from three games, and they are missing captain Pessina, plus Toure and Ziolkowski. Ciurria and Ngonge are doubtful as well. A team that short of bodies and confidence usually plays for a point away from home. Our read is a scrappy 1-1, and that is the kind of night we want. Anything quieter than that suits us even better. The warning is that Lecce have been riding their luck at the back lately. Teams have been creating far more against them than the scorelines show. Monza also score more than a goal a game, so one early goal could change the mood of this. We still want the quiet game here.

💬 Brighton arrive with the longest injury list in the league. Mitoma, Minteh, Ferguson and Tzimas are all out, and that is a big chunk of their attack gone. Brighton are also a much weaker team on the road. Away from home they have won 2, tied 2 and lost 3, and they score just over a goal a game. At their own ground they score just over 2. Coventry are bottom with no points and no goals scored yet, so nobody is calling them good right now. But their trouble is scoring, not falling apart. They have lost by 2 or more goals only once in their last 17 games, and across that run they let in under a goal a game. That is the habit that matters for a pick like this. Both teams have had 8 days to get ready, so there is no tiredness excuse either way. Our read is a 1-1. Coventry finally get on the board, Brighton's patched up attack does not have enough, and the points are shared. That result does the job for us. The risk is real though. Brighton have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these sides. A newly promoted team with no goals can also fold if it goes 1-0 early. We are still happy taking Coventry to stay close.

💬 Leipzig's games are rarely quiet. Their matches have almost 4 goals in them on average, counting both teams, and 12 of their last 14 had 3 or more. At home they have won all six in this run, scoring almost 3 goals a game. The other half of the story is that Leipzig let in goals too. They let in three at Werder Bremen and four at Como in their last two games, and they let in more than a goal a game overall. That is a side that trades punches rather than shutting a game down. Hamburg are in real trouble. They sit 17th with no points, they lost 0-5 at home to Mainz and 0-2 at Dortmund, and they let in almost 2 goals a game. A defence leaking like that against a home side this strong should mean goals. The head to head says the same. Leipzig have won 6 of the last 8 meetings, and those games had just over 3 goals in them on average. Our read is a 3-1 Leipzig win, with Hamburg getting a late one once they have to come out. That gets us home. The caution is that Hamburg have not scored in either league game yet. If they sit deep all night and lose 2-0, we are stuck. We are backing a busy night in Leipzig.

💬 This game has produced goals for years. The last 20 meetings had 4 goals in them on average, and the last five finished 0-3, 2-3, 2-3, 0-3 and 3-3. Barcelona are the main reason. They are top of the table, they have won their last five games, and they score almost 3 goals a game. Their last two league trips finished 5-0 at Valencia and 5-0 at Elche, so they do not stop at one or two. Levante are not the sort of side to shut the door either. They let in more than a goal a game, and they have been beaten by 2 or more in 3 of their last 14. What keeps them in this is their own scoring at home. They have won all six home games in this run, scoring almost 3 goals a game, including a 5-2 against Real Betis. Both boxes should be busy. Our read is a 1-3 Barcelona win. Levante get on the board like they usually do against this lot, and Barcelona take it comfortably. That is enough for us. The catch is that Levante are without top scorer Etta Eyong, and Barcelona let in under a goal a game. A 2-0 away win would leave us short. We still expect a high scoring night.

💬 Malmo are much the better team, but not at their own ground, and that is the case for Orgryte. Malmo have won just two of nine home games and let in 2 goals a game there. They are also five players short. Ekong, Jansson, Kamanzi and Sjostrand are injured, and Haksabanovic is suspended. Their last game finished 0-0 with AIK, so the goals are not flowing either. Orgryte are poor on the road, with 2 wins and 8 losses away from home, and they score under a goal a game there. They sit 15th in the relegation places on a goal difference of minus 20. They are not completely gone, though. Orgryte won one and tied two of their last five games. The key point is Malmo's own record. They have won by 2 or more in only 3 of their last 18 games, so big wins are not what this team does right now. Our read is a 2-1 Malmo win, and a one goal game is all Orgryte need. The risk is plain. Orgryte have lost by 2 or more in 7 of their last 19 games, and they let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. If Malmo click at home for once, this gets away from us quickly. We still want the weaker side with a head start against a home team missing five.

💬 Feyenoord turn up with a patched up defence, and that is the one thing keeping Zwolle in this. Six Feyenoord players are out, most of them defenders, including Beelen with a broken leg. They also play just four days after losing 1-5 at Barcelona. Zwolle have had nine days to get ready. Zwolle give you very little going forward. They score less than a goal a game at their own ground and they sit 13th. What they do is make games awkward, with three ties from eight home games. Feyenoord are the better side and they travel well, with five wins from nine away games at 2 goals a game. They have lost only 1 of their last 15. Our read is a 1-2 Feyenoord win, so a one goal defeat is all Zwolle need from this. The reason we cannot promise more is the history. Zwolle have won 1 of the last 20 meetings, and the last five finished 0-2, 1-6, 0-4, 1-5 and 0-5. Zwolle have also lost by 2 or more in 6 of their last 16 games, so a heavy night is always possible. A tired, rebuilt Feyenoord back line should keep this to one goal, and that is where we stand.

💬 Lens arrive three days after a Champions League night in Prague, and they are six players short. Abdulhamid, Baidoo, Chavez, Nawrocki and Titraoui are injured, and Sagnan is suspended after a red card. Le Mans have had eight days off. Le Mans have not lost at the MMArena yet, with three wins and two ties there, and they let in less than a goal a game at home. Better still for us, they have not lost by 2 or more in any of their last 13 games. Lens are the stronger team. They score more than 2 goals a game and have won 10 of their last 16. They have won by 2 or more in 6 of those 16 as well. But they have already lost at home to Lorient and away at Strasbourg this season. The last 5 meetings split two wins each with one tie. Our read is a 1-1 tie, and a close game is all Le Mans need. Here is the catch. Seven of Le Mans' last ten results came in Ligue 2, so that home record is built mostly against weaker teams. In Ligue 1 they have two points from three games, and Lens can still win this by 2 if they rotate well. We are with the home team and the goal in hand against tired legs.

💬 City's defence is the reason this one stays quiet. They let in less than a goal a game, and under a goal a game on the road too. Their games have averaged under 3 goals in total. Only 3 of City's 17 games have had 4 or more goals in them, and 14 of those 17 finished with 3 goals or fewer. United have been strong at Old Trafford, with six wins from seven and 3 goals a game there, so the threat is real. But they come in on three days' rest after a midweek Champions League tie, and City have had five days. United are also missing five players, with Baleba, Ugarte and de Ligt all out. A tired side against the meanest defence around usually means a careful game, not a shootout. The last 20 derbies have averaged under 3 goals, and they split 8 wins for United and 9 for City with 3 ties. Our read is 1-1, a tense game decided by one mistake. The warning is that United's recent games have been busy. Eleven of their last 14 had 3 or more goals, and this season already has a 5-2 and a 4-0 in it. Derbies can also break open in ten minutes. We still expect a tight, low scoring night at Old Trafford.

💬 Napoli are limping into this one, and Bologna are a lot better than their place in the table. Napoli have lost their last three games. They also have seven players out, including Anguissa, McTominay, Buongiorno and goalkeeper Meret. That leaves a patched up team. Napoli have had only 4 days off since a midweek loss in Europe, and Bologna have had 7. Napoli are still the better side. They score more than a goal a game, let in under a goal a game, and have won 8 of their last 15. What they do not do is win big. Napoli have won by 2 or more goals in only 3 of those 15 games. Bologna sit 16th on a single point, but they have been making plenty of chances and defending well over their last three games. They have also taken two of the last three meetings, including a 3-2 win in Naples in May. A tired home side against a rested one points to a tight, scrappy night. A 1-1 tie is the most likely result, and that is a fine one for us. The warning is real, though. Bologna have lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 14 games, so a heavy night is possible. Anguissa is also pushing to be fit and could come off the bench to steady that midfield. With Napoli this short of players and this short of rest, we still want Bologna with the head start.

💬 Getafe are short of players and short of goals, and that is the case for Deportivo here. Getafe are without Uche, Abqar, Kiko Femenia and Juanmi, and Romero is suspended. This is a team that grinds games out rather than one that creates much. Getafe score under a goal a game and have won only 5 of their last 14. Their games are quiet too, with 3 or more goals in only 4 of those 14. Deportivo have been the better team all season. They have won 7 of their last 13 and lost only one of them. They have not lost any of their six away games. On the road they score more than a goal a game and let in under one. Getafe sit 14th on four points, and Deportivo are 6th on eight. The Coliseum flattens better teams, so do not look for an open game here. A 1-1 tie is the most likely result, with Deportivo doing the better work and Getafe scrambling something back. That is a result we are happy with. There are real worries, though. Getafe have won 6 of the last 10 meetings between these two and lost only one. Deportivo have also scored eight goals in four league games from far fewer chances than that, so the goals should dry up a bit. Getafe are too thin right now, and we will take Deportivo with the head start.

💬 Gil Vicente are built to keep the score down, and that is the whole point of this pick. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 16 games. Better still, they have let in a single goal across their last four league games. Benfica are flying. They have won their last 5, have 12 wins from 17 overall, and score just over 3 goals a game. At their own ground they are unbeaten this season with 6 wins from 8. So this is not about stopping Benfica. It is about how far they go once they are in front. Gil Vicente have tied 4 of their 7 away games and barely score on the road, at under a goal a game. They set up not to lose, and they will be happy to make this a slow, narrow evening. Benfica are also back out after 4 days off, with Gil Vicente having had 7. A 2-0 to Benfica is the most likely score, and that is exactly the kind of night we want. Benfica take control, find the opener at some stage, then manage the game out. The warning is clear enough. Benfica have won by 2 or more goals in 10 of their last 17, and a 3-0 at home would shock nobody. We are still with Gil Vicente to keep this respectable.

💬 Sassuolo do not get beaten heavily, and that is the backbone of this pick. They have not lost by 2 or more goals in any of their last 14 games. At their own ground they have won 5 of 7 and let in a goal a game. Across all their games they score just over a goal a game, so nobody is claiming they will run at Juventus. They simply tend to stay in games. Juventus are the tightest team in Italy. They let in less than a goal a game, and they have been meaner still on the road. The problem for them is at the other end. They also score just over a goal a game, and only 2 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. Their attack is now stripped bare, with Kenan Yildiz, Khephren Thuram, Arkadiusz Milik and Manuel Locatelli all out. Sassuolo have seven men missing of their own, so expect a slow, careful night at the Mapei. A 1-1 is the most likely score, and Sassuolo hanging in there is the read we want. The risk is the gap in class. Juventus have won 14 of the last 20 meetings, and Sassuolo's home record is flattered by cup games against weaker teams. Even so, a Juventus attack this short of bodies should not be running away with it.

💬 These two serve up goals every time they meet, and that is the case in a nutshell. The last 19 meetings averaged almost 4 goals a game. Brest are a big reason it keeps happening. They let in almost 2 goals a game, and 8 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. They are playing with real ambition too, unbeaten in their opening 3 league games and making chances at a high rate. This is not a side who will sit deep and kill the night. Paris Saint Germain have goals in them whatever the table says. They score just over 2 goals a game, and 11 of their last 18 games had 3 or more goals. They put six past Slovan Bratislava in midweek. They also arrive rattled, sitting 14th with 2 points from 3 games and no league win yet. Brest have had 8 days off to their visitors' 4, and Brest are missing four men from the back line and midfield. Now the honest part. A 1-2 to Paris looks the most likely score, so this pick needs the game busier than that. Paris have let in only 1 goal a game across their 8 games on the road, and Brest score just over a goal a game. We still want the open game here.

💬 Chicago need a win and New England arrive without the runner who makes their counter work. That is the heart of it. Chicago have tied their last four league games, 1-1 with Inter Miami, 4-4 at Toronto, 2-2 at Seattle and 1-1 at the New York Red Bulls. Another point does them no good with third and fourth in the East split by a single point. At Soldier Field they have won six of ten, scoring just over 2 goals a game and letting in more than a goal. New England have won eight and lost six of their last 18 games, and they score more than a goal a game. They have been the better side over the last month too. But Campana is out with a hamstring problem and Wynder is missing, with Yusuf a doubt. Campana's running in behind is where most of their away goals start. Both teams played on 10 September, so tired legs are a factor for each of them. A 2-1 Chicago win is the most likely score, and that is enough for this pick. The risk is obvious. Eleven of the last 20 meetings between these two finished level, and Chicago have tied four in a row. We think the home side's need for three points breaks that run.

💬 These two produce very little when they meet. The last ten meetings averaged just over 2 goals, and two of the last five ended 0-0. That is the anchor for wanting a quiet game. Austin are the bigger reason. They barely score away from home, under a goal a game across nine trips, and they have lost five of them. Their last five games were 1-1, 1-1, 2-1, 0-2 and 1-1, so nothing is getting away from them. Uzuni is out, and Austin lose their main route to a goal. Vancouver are the best team in the West on 46 points from 23 games, but they are not a runaway scoring side. Only 9 of their last 20 games had 3 or more goals. They are also missing six players, including Poku in attack, so a patched-up team may be happy to control this rather than chase it. A 2-0 home win is the most likely score, and a night like that suits us. The clear danger is that Vancouver have put three past the Galaxy and five past Dallas at BC Place lately. If Austin crack early, this can run away in a hurry. We still back the low-scoring pattern these two keep serving up.

💬 Neither side keeps the ball out of their own net, and that is the case for goals. San Diego's home games have had almost 4 goals in them on average. They score more than 2 goals a game at Snapdragon, but they let in more than a goal a game there too. That is an open team, not a controlled one. Philadelphia are just as busy on the road. Their nine away games have produced 2 goals a game for them and more than 2 against. They arrive in form, with three wins in their last five, including 5-0 against Cincinnati and 3-1 at the Red Bulls. The counts back it up. Twelve of San Diego's last 20 games had 3 or more goals, and 11 of Philadelphia's last 20 did too. These clubs have never played each other, so there is no history to lean on either way. Philadelphia also fly right across the country, which rarely helps a back line feel comfortable. A 2-2 is the most likely score here, and that lands this pick. The worry is the home attack. San Diego are without Ingvartsen, dos Santos is suspended and Gabriel Pirani is a doubt, so the goals may not flow as freely. We still expect a loose, high-scoring night.