Tips — Monday, 14 September 2026

💬 Como are the form team in Italy and they meet a Parma side in real trouble. Fabregas's team have won their last three and scored ten goals doing it. They beat RB Leipzig 4-1, won 4-1 at Genoa and then won 2-1 at Napoli. Across their last 17 games they have won 10 and lost 3, and they score just over 2 goals a game. At the Sinigaglia they score almost 3 a game, and they have not lost by 2 or more goals once in that whole run. Parma are the opposite story. They sit 16th with one point and have scored once in their last four games. They score less than a goal a game and let in just over one. Away from home it is worse, with 1 win in six. Their midfield is stretched too, with Hans Nicolussi Caviglia out and Adrian Bernabe a bench option at best. So expect Como to own the ball and Parma to sit deep and try to keep the damage down. A 2-0 fits that, with Como scoring once before the break and again as the visitors tire. The risk is a tight game. Their last five meetings finished 1-0, 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 1-1, and Parma have let in 3 or more only once in 15 games. Como also played in Europe four days ago, so a change or two is possible. We are still with the home side.

💬 Roma have started the season as well as anyone, and that is the case here. They have won all three league games, beating Lecce 4-0, Fiorentina 4-0 and Atalanta 2-1. They have scored ten goals and let in one in those games, and they sit 2nd. Over their last 15 games they have won 10 and lost 3, and they score just over 2 goals a game. They have also won by 2 or more goals in 7 of those 15, so big wins are a habit, not a fluke. Torino are not in that class. They have won 6, tied 3 and lost 7 of their last 16, and they score just over a goal a game. They let in just as many. Their 2-1 win at Fiorentina flattered them and they sit 14th, with Franco Israel and Pietro Pellegri both out. History is one sided too. Roma have won 13 of the last 20 games between them. Torino have had nine days to get ready, so expect them to sit deep, land a goal and make the second half uncomfortable. A 1-2 to Roma is the read, and a one goal win is the likeliest version of it. The warning is the schedule. Roma played a Champions League game away at Fenerbahce four days ago, and Gasperini may freshen his team up. Torino have also beaten Roma twice in the last five meetings. We still trust Roma's quality to decide this one.

💬 Djurgarden are flying. They have won their last five games, including a 3-0 at Malmo and a 4-0 against Mjallby, and that run is the main reason we want them here. They score more than 2 goals a game and let in under one. They have also won by 2 or more goals in 9 of their last 19 games, so this is a team that turns control into a proper win. Gais are solid enough, with 9 wins in their last 18. The problem is travel. At home they barely let anything in, but on the road they let in more than a goal a game and have lost four of their eight trips. They are also without seven players, including Holmen with a knee problem and Lundgren with an Achilles injury. Our read is Djurgarden win it 2-1. Gais usually hold out for a long spell. The second half is where the hosts should get the goals that matter. There are two honest worries. 3Arena has been Djurgarden's weaker ground. They have won 4 of 9 games there against 7 of 10 on their travels. Gais have also kept this game tight for two seasons. Gais also arrive on nine days of rest to Djurgarden's four, so legs could matter late. We still back the in-form side to come out on top.

💬 Degerfors are the perfect opponent for a team trying to get back on track. They have not scored in five of their last six away league games, losing 0-2, 0-2, 0-2, 0-4 and 0-2. On the road they manage a goal a game. Sirius are still top of the table. They have won 13 of their last 19 games and score more than 2 goals a game. They have also beaten Degerfors in 8 of the last 13 meetings, including a 3-0 in the reverse game earlier this year. Degerfors sit 14th. They have won 5, tied 4 and lost 10 of their last 19, and they have been beaten by 2 or more goals in 6 of those. They are also without Diatara, who is suspended, and Pikkarainen, who has a knee injury. Our read is a controlled 2-0. Sirius should go ahead before the break and add a second, without this turning into the goal-fest their season numbers hint at. The warning is that Sirius are limping. They have won once in their last five league games, and both home defeats came here, 0-1 to Malmo and 0-3 to Hacken. They also let in more than a goal a game at home, so one Degerfors goal changes the shape of this completely. We still think Sirius have far too much for a team this poor on the road.

💬 Bodo/Glimt have been close to untouchable on their own ground. They have won all eight home games at Aspmyra, scoring more than 3 goals a game there and letting in under one. That is the strongest reason we are backing a clear home win. They have also won by 2 or more goals in 11 of their last 18 games, so big margins are normal for this side. Sandefjord are the opposite kind of team. They have won 6, tied 5 and lost 8 of their last 19 games, and they score under 2 goals a game. Their away scoring looks healthy on paper, but it is propped up by a 15-0 cup win over an amateur side. Strip that out and there is almost no threat on the road. Their last two league games finished 1-1 and 0-0. The history is one-way too. Bodo/Glimt are 10W-3D-2L in the last 15 meetings and already won 3-0 at Sandefjord in July. We expect the leaders to be in front before the break and to add a third late, so 3-0 is the read. The risk is real. Bodo/Glimt are missing five players, and they played at Bayern Munich four days ago, losing 0-5. They have Champions League games either side of this, so a rotated team could be happy with a narrow win. We still think their home form is far too strong for Sandefjord.

💬 Estrela take goals with them wherever they go. Every one of their last five league games had at least three goals, finishing 2-1, 2-2, 3-2, 2-2 and 2-2. Across a longer run, 8 of their last 11 games had 3 or more. That is the strongest reason we want goals here. The reason is simple. Estrela are dangerous going forward and soft at the back. They let in 2 goals a game on the road, so even a struggling home side gets chances against them. Rio Ave are struggling badly. They sit 16th, they lost their last two games 4-0, and they score less than a goal a game. The useful part for us is their defending. They have won once in seven home games and let in more than 2 goals a game there. So we expect an open, untidy night in Vila do Conde. Estrela should take the lead and Rio Ave should pull one back without ever looking like turning it around, which points to a 1-2. That gets us home. The risk is that Rio Ave give up on attacking and sit deep. They have beaten Estrela in 5 of the last 8 meetings, and one of those recent wins was a 2-0, so a quiet night is not far-fetched. We still want the goals, because Estrela have not given anyone a dull game yet.

💬 St Pat's are the better team, but they turn into a different side away from home. Seven trips have brought them under a goal a game at both ends. That is the main reason we are happy to take Dundalk with a head start. Dundalk are ordinary. They have won 7, tied 5 and lost 8 of their last 20 games. Their home scoring average leans heavily on an 8-0 cup win over junior opposition. What they do well is stay in games. They have been beaten by 2 or more goals just twice in their last 20. St Pat's sit 2nd with the best goal difference in the division at plus 22, and they beat leaders Shamrock Rovers 2-0 on Friday. Away from home though, they have been quiet at both ends. This game has a history of being close. Six of the last 20 meetings were ties, and the July game finished 1-1. Both sides played on 11 September, so tired legs point the same way. Our read is a cagey 1-1, and that result does the job for us. Dundalk have lost five of their nine home games this season, so this is not a safe home side. If St Pat's bring the form that beat Rovers, they take this game. We still think Dundalk stay in it on a night that suits them.

💬 Shelbourne have stopped scoring, and that is the heart of this one. They have scored once in their last three league games, a 0-1 loss, a 0-0 and a 1-1. They have no win in five. Across the season they score more than a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. Drogheda are cut from the same cloth. They have won 5, tied 6 and lost 8 of their last 19, and they score at the same rate as Shelbourne. They manage even less on the road. They are ninth on 31 points and sitting in the relegation play off place, so they need a point more than a shootout. Both clubs tie a lot. Shelbourne have 8 ties in 19 games, Drogheda have 6, and the two have tied 8 of their last 20 meetings. Both also played three days ago, and that short turnaround points to a slow, careful game. A 1-1 is where this most likely lands. The honest warning is the head to head. Their last 20 meetings have averaged just over 3 goals, and their three meetings this season finished 2-1, 3-4 and 2-2. That is a real hole in the case, and it is why this is a measured pick rather than a strong one. Even so, the current form of both teams points to a tight, low scoring night.

💬 Waterford have made the RSC a fortress, and that is the main reason we are with them. At home they have won 7, tied 4 and lost 1, scoring 2 goals a game and letting in just over a goal. They go into this 12 games unbeaten in all competitions after Friday's 1-1 with Dundalk. Across their last 20 games they have won 10, tied 7 and lost 3. Derry are a different team away from home. They have won 2, tied 2 and lost 5 on their travels, and they let in almost 2 goals a game on the road. They also needed a 94th minute goal from Michael Duffy to beat Shelbourne last time out. That says more about their luck than their football. Both sides play again three days after their last game, so tired legs should suit the team with the stronger home run. A 2-1 to Waterford is the read, a lively game that the hosts control late on. The catch is the history between them. Derry have won 12 of the last 20 meetings, so Waterford hold nothing over them. Derry have also won 3 of their last 5 and arrive playing well. This is closer than the home form makes it look, but we are still on Waterford to come out on top.

💬 Sligo cannot keep the ball out of their own net, and that is the case for goals here. They let in almost 2 goals a game and have lost by 2 or more in 8 of their last 19. They are bottom of the table on 23 points, eight points behind the play off place. They have let in 27 more goals than they have scored. Galway are the better side in most columns. They have won 6, tied 8 and lost 6 of their last 20, and they score more than a goal a game. They have also won the last three meetings between these two, and two of those wins produced five goals. The scoring pattern in both camps is busy rather than tight. Sligo's games average 3 goals in total and so do Galway's. 12 of Sligo's last 19 games and 12 of Galway's last 20 had 3 or more goals. Sligo do have a goal in them at the Showgrounds, where they have taken 4 ties from eight games. A 1-2 to Galway is our read, and that is a game with plenty in it. The worry is the Sligo front line. They have not scored in any of their last three league games. Another quiet night from them makes a 1-0 or 2-0 to Galway very possible. That is a live risk with a team this short on confidence. We still think there are goals in this one.

💬 Udinese do not get beaten up. They have not lost by 2 or more goals in any of their last 13 games, and they let in under a goal a game. That is the strongest reason to take them with a big head start at San Siro. Inter are the better side and should win this. They have won 10 of their last 15 games, score more than 2 goals a game, and they have won six of seven at home. But they are not tight at the back. Inter have let in a goal in three of their last four games, and they lost 1-2 at Real Madrid last week. Dimarco and Spence are both doubtful. Udinese are tougher than they look. They have won 6 and tied 3 of their last 13, and they won 2-1 at San Siro in August 2025. The last 20 meetings have averaged 3 goals, which is the shape of a game Inter win without running away with it. Our read is 2-1 Inter. Udinese get one back, the margin stays small, and that is all we need. The worry is that Inter have scored 3 goals a game in their home games this season, so a big win is live. Udinese are also without five players, including Solet and Zaniolo. We still back Udinese to keep this close.

💬 Metz are the reason we want a quiet night here. They have not won a game away from home, with 4 ties and 1 loss on the road. They score barely more than a goal in those games. Their last five results are two wins and three ties, so they are hard to beat and slow to pull away. Red Star are an odd case. They have been better on their travels than in front of their own crowd. At Stade Bauer they have won 2, tied 3 and lost 2. Across the season they score more than a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. That is a side which trades chances without ever taking a game by the throat. The history backs the tight read. Their last 10 meetings have been low scoring, with only 4 of every 10 going past 2 goals. Metz sit fifth in Ligue 2 with nine points from five games, four places above Red Star, so a point suits them fine. A 1-1, decided by a set piece or a mistake, is the shape that fits both sides. The risk is that neither team is truly dull. Red Star have had 3 or more goals in 7 of their last 13 games, and Metz in 7 of their last 11. One early goal would change the whole night. We still side with the low scoring game.

💬 Newcastle have almost nothing going forward on the road, and that is the base of this pick. They score under a goal a game away from home, against more than 2 a game at their own ground. They are missing Joelinton, Dan Burn and Osula, which takes out the size and power that usually earns them goals away. Leeds have turned Elland Road into a grind. They have 3 wins and a tie there with no defeat, and they let in less than a goal a game at home. This meeting has a quiet history too. The last 11 games between them have averaged under 3 goals, five ended level, and two finished 0-0. Leeds have won 2 and lost 4 of those 11, so it is usually close and careful rather than open. A 1-0 to Leeds is our read, decided by one moment rather than a run of clear chances. The honest warning is the Leeds defence. They let in six at Chelsea in the cup last week, and 9 of their last 17 games have had 3 or more goals in them. Newcastle have not lost in five either, so they are not arriving broken. We still expect a tight, low scoring game.

💬 Two soft defences meet here, and that is why we want goals. Villarreal's games have been busy all season, with more than 3 goals in them on average and 3 or more goals in 11 of their last 16. At home they score almost 3 goals a game and let in more than a goal a game. The front end works even when the back end does not. They are 18th in La Liga with two points from four games and they have not won in five. Newly promoted Deportivo La Coruna beat them at their own ground. A team that open and that desperate for points does not sit back. Betis are the opposite story and end up in the same place. They have won 8, tied 2 and lost 2 of their last 12, so their results look strong. On the road they let in more than 2 goals a game and they were beaten 5-2 at Levante last month. They score 2 a game away as well, so they will trade blows. A 2-2 is our read, and four goals is exactly what we are after. The caution is the history. These two have averaged under 3 goals across their last 20 meetings, which runs cooler than the current form of both sides. Both have had six days off and may change their lineups. We still want the goals in this one.

💬 Moreirense cannot score, and that is the heart of this one. They have four points from five league games, sit 15th, and carry a goal difference of minus 8. Across their last 15 games they score less than a goal a game and let in almost 2. They have won 3, tied 4 and lost 8 in that run, and they have not won by 2 or more goals in any of them. They are also without Guilherme Liberato, banned for a second game after his red card at Porto. Maritimo are no powerhouse up front, but they are far better balanced. They have won 7 and lost 5 of their last 14, and they score just over a goal a game. They let in about the same. On the road they have won 3 and lost 3, and they arrive with nine days of rest to Moreirense's five. That freshness counts in a game that one moment is likely to decide. Maritimo have won 7 of the last 18 meetings between these two, and those games averaged just over 2 goals. A 0-1 to Maritimo is the shape that fits here. The caution is Maritimo's own record. Five of their last ten games came against second tier sides, so their numbers flatter them. They have also lost their last two top flight games. Moreirense have tied three of their eight games at their own ground, so a tight night is live. We still want the away side here.