Manchester United vs Manchester City — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.25: City's defence is the reason this one stays quiet. They let in less than a goal a game, and under a goal a game on the road too. Their games have averaged under 3 goals in total. Only 3 of City's 17 games have had 4 or more goals in them, and 14 of those 17 finished with 3 goals or fewer. United have been strong at Old Trafford, with six wins from seven and 3 goals a game there, so the threat is real. But they come in on three days' rest after a midweek Champions League tie, and City have had five days. United are also missing five players, with Baleba, Ugarte and de Ligt all out. A tired side against the meanest defence around usually means a careful game, not a shootout. The last 20 derbies have averaged under 3 goals, and they split 8 wins for United and 9 for City with 3 ties. Our read is 1-1, a tense game decided by one mistake. The warning is that United's recent games have been busy. Eleven of their last 14 had 3 or more goals, and this season already has a 5-2 and a 4-0 in it. Derbies can also break open in ten minutes. We still expect a tight, low scoring night at Old Trafford.