RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV — Tips & Analysis

Over 3.25: Leipzig's games are rarely quiet. Their matches have almost 4 goals in them on average, counting both teams, and 12 of their last 14 had 3 or more. At home they have won all six in this run, scoring almost 3 goals a game. The other half of the story is that Leipzig let in goals too. They let in three at Werder Bremen and four at Como in their last two games, and they let in more than a goal a game overall. That is a side that trades punches rather than shutting a game down. Hamburg are in real trouble. They sit 17th with no points, they lost 0-5 at home to Mainz and 0-2 at Dortmund, and they let in almost 2 goals a game. A defence leaking like that against a home side this strong should mean goals. The head to head says the same. Leipzig have won 6 of the last 8 meetings, and those games had just over 3 goals in them on average. Our read is a 3-1 Leipzig win, with Hamburg getting a late one once they have to come out. That gets us home. The caution is that Hamburg have not scored in either league game yet. If they sit deep all night and lose 2-0, we are stuck. We are backing a busy night in Leipzig.