Excelsior vs Utrecht — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.75: Utrecht's defense has fallen apart, and that is the whole case here. They let in more than 2 goals a game across their last 15, and their goal difference is minus 9 after five league games. Utrecht's games average just over 4 goals. Excelsior are just as open. 11 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals and they score almost 2 a game. Both sides give up chances every week, and neither is built to sit on a lead. Utrecht sit 15th with two points from five and they are missing seven players, including Engwanda, Jensen, Jonathans and Ohio. That is a short-handed side facing a team that beat them 5-0 the last time these clubs met. Utrecht have still scored in every game they have played, so they will get one back. The 20 meetings between these two average just over 3 goals, and Utrecht have tied 3-3 twice in their last four. A 2-1 Excelsior win is the most likely single score, and this game has plenty of ways to add a fourth. One worry stands out. Excelsior are much quieter at Woudestein than on the road, with a 2W-1D-4L home record. If they go ahead early and shut the game down, the goals can dry up. We are still backing the busy game.