Malmo FF vs Orgryte IS — Tips & Analysis

Orgryte IS +1.5: Malmo are much the better team, but not at their own ground, and that is the case for Orgryte. Malmo have won just two of nine home games and let in 2 goals a game there. They are also five players short. Ekong, Jansson, Kamanzi and Sjostrand are injured, and Haksabanovic is suspended. Their last game finished 0-0 with AIK, so the goals are not flowing either. Orgryte are poor on the road, with 2 wins and 8 losses away from home, and they score under a goal a game there. They sit 15th in the relegation places on a goal difference of minus 20. They are not completely gone, though. Orgryte won one and tied two of their last five games. The key point is Malmo's own record. They have won by 2 or more in only 3 of their last 18 games, so big wins are not what this team does right now. Our read is a 2-1 Malmo win, and a one goal game is all Orgryte need. The risk is plain. Orgryte have lost by 2 or more in 7 of their last 19 games, and they let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. If Malmo click at home for once, this gets away from us quickly. We still want the weaker side with a head start against a home team missing five.