Tips — Saturday, 12 September 2026

💬 Bochum have not scored a home league goal this season, and that is the case for taking the away side here. Both home league games ended in 1-0 defeats, to Hertha BSC and to newly promoted Osnabruck. Bochum have won 6, tied 2 and lost 5 of their last 13, and they won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of those 13. They score just over a goal a game and let in about the same. Furth are patchy, with 4 wins, 3 ties and 8 losses in their last 15, but they make chances even when they lose. They score just over a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. The history here is even. In the last 20 meetings Bochum have won 9, tied 7 and lost 4, and those games average close to 3 goals. Expect a scrappy contest decided by a handful of chances, with both sides finding one. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and Furth avoiding defeat is all we are asking for. Two things worry us. Bochum have won the last three meetings, including 2-1 at Furth in the cup on 23 August. Furth also travel badly, with 1 win, 2 ties and 4 losses on the road. They are without Benjamin Zank, and Maxim Dal is expected to miss out too. We still think Furth get something out of this one.

💬 Kaiserslautern have become very hard to beat, and that is what this pick leans on. They have let in only one goal in four league games this season, and they are unbeaten in their last five. Magdeburg will have more of the ball at home, but they are open at the back. They let in more than a goal a game, and their games have more than 3 goals in them on average. Ten of their last 17 games had 3 or more goals. They also lost 1-6 at home to Braunschweig last month. Kaiserslautern are the opposite kind of team. They let in under a goal a game and they take the sting out of most games they play. Their problem is scoring, with less than a goal a game on the road. The meetings between these two back the quiet read. Five of the last 14 finished level, and Kaiserslautern won the most recent one 1-0 at Magdeburg. Magdeburg also lose Tobias Muller, suspended after a second yellow against Hertha. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and Kaiserslautern avoiding defeat is all we are asking for. Be careful, though. Magdeburg have won by 2 or more goals in 7 of their last 17 games, and they lead these meetings 6 wins to 3. One sloppy spell and Kaiserslautern have very little to come back with. We are still happy to back them to avoid defeat.

💬 Racing have not beaten Alaves in five attempts, and three of those games finished level. The most recent was a 1-1 last month, and those five meetings averaged 2 goals in total. Alaves are the better side right now as well. They sit 2nd in La Liga on 10 points from four games, with Racing 13th on 4 points. Alaves have won 7, tied 5 and lost 4 of their last 16, and they lost by 2 or more goals in only 1 of those 16. They have also been giving up very little in their recent games. Racing have won 8, tied 3 and lost 3 of their last 14, so they are no pushover at home. Their eye catching home scoring comes mostly from second tier games last season, when they beat Cadiz 4-1, Valladolid 4-1 and Huesca 4-2. This is a much tougher opponent. Expect a tight game with few clear openings at either end. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish again, and Alaves avoiding defeat is all we are asking for. The worry is the ground. Racing are unbeaten in seven home games, with 6 wins and 1 tie, and they will back themselves to score. Alaves are also without F. Garces, who is suspended, and M. Rodriguez with an ankle problem. We still trust the away side to leave with something.

💬 Genoa cannot score, and that is the simplest reason to be against them here. They have managed one goal in their last three games, all defeats, and they sit 19th in Serie A with no points and a goal difference of -6. Genoa score under a goal a game, and their last 15 read 5 wins, 2 ties and 8 losses. Frosinone arrive the other way up. They have won 11, tied 3 and lost 1 of their last 15. They have not lost on the road in that run, with 4 wins and 2 ties away. They let in under a goal a game away from home. Expect Genoa to have the ball and the crowd without the finish to use either. Frosinone should take one of the few clear chances they make and decide the game that way. A 0-1 to Frosinone is the likeliest finish, and Frosinone avoiding defeat is all this needs. There are honest warnings. Frosinone have been winning while being outplayed, and their record leans heavily on second tier games last season, including a 5-0 against Mantova and a 3-0 against Carrarese. Genoa have also won 3 and tied 3 of the last 8 meetings between these two, so neither side has taken over this one. We still want Frosinone to come away with something.

💬 Dortmund are in no state to run up a score. They are missing seven players, including E. Can, J. Lerma and the suspended S. Inacio, and they played Villarreal on Tuesday with four days to recover. Paderborn have had seven. Dortmund have won 11 of their last 15 without a single tie, and they score more than 2 goals a game. The catch for them is the margin. They won by 2 or more goals in only 6 of those 15 games, so the big win is not their normal night. Paderborn are built to make that hard. Their away record reads 4 wins, 4 ties and 1 loss, and they let in just over a goal a game on the road. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 17 games. That last number is the heart of this pick. Expect Paderborn to sit deep and make Dortmund work for every opening. A controlled 2-0 home win is the likeliest finish, and that is cutting it fine. We want Paderborn to keep the gap down to a single goal. That is a real ask. Paderborn have not scored in the Bundesliga yet, losing 0-1 to Freiburg and tying 0-0 at Mainz, and a side that cannot score can get worn down late. We still think Paderborn keep this close.

💬 Two defenses that are not working meet here, and the scorelines already show it. Hoffenheim have lost both league games 2-3, at home to Dortmund and away at Koln, scoring twice and losing anyway. They sit 16th with no points. Hoffenheim score almost 2 goals a game and let in 2 goals a game, and 11 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. Stuttgart bring even more. Every one of their last 14 games has had at least 2 goals in it, and 12 of those 14 had 3 or more. Their games have just over 4 goals in them on average. Stuttgart score more than 2 a game and let in almost 2, and they have been giving up plenty of chances in their last two games. The rest of it points the same way. Stuttgart are missing six players, including the defenders L. Assignon, D. Zagadou and N. Nartey, and they played in Europe on Wednesday with only three days to recover. Hoffenheim have had seven. The last meeting here finished 3-3. A 2-2 is the likeliest finish, which is exactly the kind of night this wants. That is the honest catch as well, because it leaves no room to spare. If one of these attacks misfires and the game turns controlled, it does not get there. Stuttgart may also rotate after their European night, which could quiet the game down. We still want the busy game here.

💬 Augsburg are top of the Bundesliga and have already got the better of this opponent twice. They won 2-1 at Leverkusen in April and 2-0 back in December. Augsburg have 6 points with a goal difference of +6, after a 4-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt and a 3-0 against Schalke. They have won 8, tied 3 and lost 4 of their last 15, and their last five games read four wins and one loss. Leverkusen are the bigger name and they will make chances. They score more than 2 goals a game, but they let in more than a goal a game. Their last 12 games read 6 wins, 2 ties and 4 losses. They have been making the better chances in their recent games, so nobody is keeping a clean sheet here. Expect a competitive game with goals at both ends that Augsburg edge at home, rather than the shootout the scoring averages suggest. A 2-1 to Augsburg is the likeliest finish, and Augsburg avoiding defeat is all we are asking for. The history is the worry. Leverkusen have won 12 of the last 20 meetings, so this recent two game swing runs against the long story. Augsburg are also without S. Mounie and T. Breithaupt, with three more names in doubt. We still back the home side to keep their run going.

💬 The history between these two points to a controlled night, and that is the case for backing the quieter game. The last 20 meetings averaged under 3 goals in total, and most of them stayed low scoring. Mainz have won 6, tied 2 and lost 4 of their last 12, but their home form has been poor. They have won one of their last five at the Mewa Arena, and they let in more goals there than they score. Their 5-0 win at Hamburg last week ran a long way ahead of how they actually played. Frankfurt sit 13th on one point with a goal difference of -3, and they were beaten 1-4 at home by Augsburg last time out. They have Collins and Ngankam out, with Chaibi, Knauff and Pimpong all doubtful, so a big slice of their attack is missing. Mainz are without five of their own, and goalkeeper Zentner is doubtful with a thigh problem. A 2-1 to Mainz is the likeliest finish. That is the shape these games keep taking: the home side in front, Frankfurt getting a reply, nobody running away with it. The honest warning is Frankfurt. Their games average just over 4 goals in total, and 10 of their last 12 had 3 or more. If both attacks click early this can get away from us. We still expect a controlled game here.

💬 Villa have not scored a Premier League goal this season, and that is the heart of this one. They lost 0-4 at Brighton, lost 0-1 to Arsenal and tied 0-0 at Hull. They sit 17th with a goal difference of -5. Now they come into this four days after a Champions League trip to Bruges, with their midfield stripped by injury and suspension. Onana is out with a knee injury, Goretzka is not back until October, Joao Gomes is suspended, and Bailey and Abraham are unavailable too. Forest tie more games than almost anyone. They have tied four of their last eleven games, and they have scored twice in three league games this season, one of those a 0-0 with Tottenham. Their games average under 3 goals in total, and only 5 of their last 11 had 3 or more. They also arrive with a full week of rest, so expect them to be patient and hard to break down. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, with Villa finally getting on the board but not finding a second. The risk is the history. These two have met 16 times, averaging more than 3 goals, and Villa won 4-0 in May. Villa also won 3-2 at Bruges in midweek, so the goals are in there when a game opens up. We still expect a tight, low scoring afternoon.

💬 Hull drag every game down to their level, and that is the reason this one stays quiet. Only one of their last 14 games has had 4 or more goals in it. They score a goal a game and let in less than one, and their games average almost 2 goals in total. They are third on seven points and they beat Manchester United 2-0 last month, so this is a real team, not a soft touch. Chelsea should still win. They have won 6, tied 1 and lost 7 of their last 14, they score plenty at home, and they have won all nine meetings with Hull. Those nine games averaged almost 3 goals in total, which is the shape we want. Hull are missing six players, including goalkeeper Jack Butland, so a Chelsea goal or two is coming. Chelsea are also three days on from a 6-3 cup tie, which usually means a slower, more careful night. A 2-1 to Chelsea is the likeliest finish, and that keeps this where we want it. The warning is Chelsea themselves. Their last five games produced 9, 3, 7, 2 and 5 goals, and they let in more than a goal a game at home. If Hull get an early one and Chelsea have to chase, this can run away from us. We still want the lower scoring game here.

💬 Palace play in busy games, and that is the simple case for goals here. 13 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals in them. They have scored three in each of their last two, a 3-2 at Fulham and a 3-0 against Middlesbrough. They also let in almost 2 goals a game themselves. Ipswich are not built to shut a game down either. They score more than a goal a game, they let in more than one, and 8 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. Their one Premier League away trip this season ended in a 2-5 loss at Manchester United. Neither defence has been holding up lately, and both teams give up good chances. Ipswich also arrive with eight days of rest to Palace's four, so they should be able to push forward rather than sit in. A 2-1 to Palace is the likeliest finish, and that is enough for us. There are two honest catches. Palace are missing Mateta, Sarr and Riad, with Nketiah doubtful, so their whole front line is out. The head to head is quieter than the rest of this. The last nine meetings averaged more than 2 goals, and fewer than half of them had 3 or more. We still want goals in this one.

💬 Liverpool win these games, but they do not win them by much, and that is the case for Fulham here. Liverpool have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 18 games. They have scored exactly twice in each of their last four, so a two goal night looks more likely than a rout. They are also three days off a Champions League tie with Atletico Madrid, and Fulham have had a full week. Ekitike, Chiesa, Bradley and Leoni are all out, with Gakpo doubtful. Fulham sit 19th and are still waiting for a first point, but they are better than that looks. They have been creating plenty in their last four games and should get on the board. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 14. Their away games stay narrow too, with one goal scored and just over a goal a game let in across six trips. A 2-1 to Liverpool is the likeliest finish, the home side in front and Fulham scoring late. Two things can beat us. Liverpool may name a full strength side with Isak leading it, and the gap widens fast if they do. Fulham have also let in three goals in each of their two home league games, so their defence can crack. We still want Fulham to stay within touching distance.

💬 Osasuna have been much the better side lately, and this is a game they should just about take. Their last four games have seen them create far more than they gave up, and the 2-5 loss at Alaves looks like the odd one out. El Sadar has been a grind all season. They tied 0-0 with Levante there and beat Getafe 1-0, so they know how to win a quiet one. Osasuna have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 15 games, so this is about winning, not winning well. Espanyol have won one of their six away games. They score under a goal a trip, let in almost 2, and they arrive without Puado and Kike Garcia, which thins the attack out. The last 20 meetings averaged just over 2 goals, so this game rarely opens up. A 1-0 to Osasuna is the likeliest finish, decided by one goal from the side that defends its ground better. There is a real warning here. Espanyol have won the last two meetings, 2-1 at El Sadar in May and 1-0 in August last year, so they clearly do not mind this trip. Osasuna are also missing four of their own, including Moi Gomez and Oroz. We still make Osasuna the side to back.

💬 Neither of these sides can score, and that is the heart of this one. Only 3 of Nacional's last 15 games have had 3 or more goals, and their games average just over 2 goals in total. At home they have won four of seven, scoring just over a goal a game and letting in under one. Alverca give even less on the road. They are still looking for a first win, and they sit second bottom on two points from five. They have won one of six away trips, and they barely score on the road. They are missing Sabit Abdulai and Julian Martinez, so the attack is thinner again. The two clubs have only met twice, and those games finished 1-0 and 0-1. Nacional are on a three game losing run and have lost Ulisses and Leo Santos at the back. Neither side will want to open this up. A 1-0 home win is the likeliest finish, which is exactly the kind of quiet night we want. The warning is Alverca's own games. Seven of their last 13 have had 3 or more goals, and their matches average close to 3 goals in total, so they are not always this dull. Nacional have also been outplayed badly in recent weeks, so a clean sheet is far from certain. We still expect a low scoring game in Funchal.

💬 Both of these sides have been winning tight games, and that is what makes a small head start on Lazio worth taking. Milan have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 16 games, so they are not a side that pulls clear. Lazio have won their last three league games and every one came by a single goal, 2-1 at Udinese then 1-0 against Genoa and 1-0 at Bologna. They sit third. Milan have been just as controlled. They let in under a goal a game on the road across their last eight away trips, and they have let in only two goals in three games. The history says the same. The last 20 meetings averaged just over 2 goals, and three of the last five finished 1-0 or 0-1. A 1-0 to Lazio is the likeliest finish, one goal deciding a game neither side wants to open up. Lazio avoiding defeat is all we are asking for. The honest warning is the injury list. Rovella and Cataldi are both out, and those are the two who control the middle of the pitch for Lazio. Their home run is the weaker half of their season too, 2 wins, 2 ties and 3 losses at the Olimpico, letting in almost 2 goals a game. We still want Lazio with the head start.

💬 These two do not beat each other, and that is the simplest case for Werder. The last 20 meetings produced ten ties, with five wins each way. Köln are not the side to break that pattern. They have won 3, tied 6 and lost 8 of their last 17 games, and at home they have won only two of eight. Their defence is the problem. They let in just over 2 goals a game at home, and they were beaten 4-1 at Stuttgart last time out. Köln games do not stay quiet either, and 14 of their last 17 had 3 or more goals. Werder will get their chances here. Werder have won 6 and lost 7 of their last 14, and they beat RB Leipzig 3-1 in that run. A 2-2 is the likeliest finish, an even game between two sides who both leak goals. Werder avoiding defeat is all we are asking for. Two things worry us. Werder are without Topp, Njinmah, Stage and Agu, which takes a big chunk out of the attack. Their last two performances were also far worse than that 3-1 win suggests. They have also lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 14. We still expect Werder to take something from this one.

💬 Porto keep winning by two goals, and they come up against a side that cannot score at all. Four of Porto's last five league games ended in a win by two goals or more, reading 3-0, 2-0, 2-0 and 2-0. They are top of the league with 15 points from five games and have won 12 of their last 18 in all competitions. Casa Pia are bottom on 1 point from five, with a goal difference of -11. They have not scored in any of their last five games, a run of 0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-7 and 0-1. Casa Pia score less than a goal a game, and their recent games show them being badly outplayed rather than unlucky. The head to head says the same thing. Casa Pia have won 1, tied 1 and lost 7 of the last 9 meetings with Porto. Expect the visitors to lead by the break and add a second, with 0-2 the likeliest finish. That is the game we are backing. The care point is how Casa Pia lose. They have only lost by 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 17 games, so they usually sit deep and keep the score down. Porto also played in Europe four days ago without Samu Aghehowa, Jan Bednarek and Victor Froholdt, so changes are possible. We still think Porto have far too much here.

💬 Cagliari travel short of attackers and short of goals, and that is the case for Atalanta here. Cagliari are without Felici, Idrissi and Trepy, and Nzola is not fully fit. They score under a goal a game on the road, and four of their last five games finished with two goals or fewer, including three 1-0 results. Atalanta have won 6, tied 5 and lost 5 of their last 16, and they have taken three wins from their last four. Their home games have been quiet ones: eight at home this year have produced nine goals in total. Expect that shape again, with Atalanta holding the ball and making the better chances. A 1-0 to Atalanta is the likeliest finish, and a bigger Atalanta win would suit us even better. The history is mixed. Atalanta have won 11 of the last 20 meetings, but nine of those 20 had 3 or more goals, and Cagliari took the most recent one 3-2. There are real worries here. Atalanta have won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 16 games. They are also without Hien and Sulemana, with Gaetano suspended, and their last three games saw them well beaten on chances. We still expect Atalanta to be too strong for this Cagliari side.

💬 Nice cannot score, and that is the heart of this one. They have scored once in three league games this season and average under a goal a game in their away matches. Nice tie a lot too. Eight of their last 15 games ended level, and they have won once in eight on the road. They are missing five players as well, with Abergel, Bombito, Boudaoui, Mendy and Sanson all out. Auxerre are bottom of the league with no points from three games and a goal difference of -7. Four of their own players are ruled out and four more are in doubt, so this is a patched up home side playing with no confidence. Neither team looks able to build long spells of pressure. The last 12 meetings between these two averaged just over 2 goals a game, and Nice's games have run at just over 2 as well. A 1-1 looks the likeliest finish, with the goals coming from single moments rather than either side taking control. That is a quiet afternoon and exactly what we want. The clear warning is Auxerre's defending. They have let in 11 goals in three league games, losing 1-3, 1-3 and 2-5, and their games have averaged 3 goals. If Nice suddenly start scoring, this gets away from us fast. We still expect a tight, low scoring game.

💬 These two keep serving up the same quiet game. The last five meetings finished 1-1, 2-1, 0-0, 1-1 and 0-1, and across the last 16 meetings they have averaged 2 goals a game. Le Havre are built for that kind of afternoon. They have tied 7 of their last 13 games, including 3 of 6 at home, and they are still without a win this season. Only 3 of their last 13 games produced 3 or more goals. They are also down eight players, among them Zagadou, Pembele, Toure and Ndiaye, with Mwanga suspended after a red card. A patched up side rarely throws bodies forward. Angers barely score. They average under a goal a game across their last 15 matches and did not score in three of their last ten. They have won 2 and lost 9 of those 15, so they offer very little going forward. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, which is the sort of total we are after. Two things could spoil it. Angers have been creating more than their scoring suggests, and they won 3-1 at Auxerre two weeks ago. Le Havre let in more than a goal a game as well, so an early goal could pull this open. We still want the quiet, low scoring game here.

💬 This matchup has been tight for years. Only 6 of the last 20 meetings produced 3 goals or more, and those games averaged just over 2 goals each. The last five read 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, 1-1 and 0-1. Lorient keep games quiet. They let in just over a goal a game across their last 14, and only 5 of those 14 games had 3 or more goals. They come in off a 1-0 win at Lens, so they know how to protect a narrow lead. Toulouse are 17th on 1 point and score just over a goal a game. They travel without goalkeeper Restes, plus Donnum and Francis, and a new goalkeeper usually means a careful away plan. Lorient are 8th and look the steadier side. One Lorient goal in a game of few clear chances should be enough to decide it, and a 1-0 is the likeliest finish. That keeps the total right where we want it. The honest worry is Toulouse's recent play. They have taken one point from their last three games and made far more chances than that suggests. Their own games have averaged 3 goals, with 10 of their last 17 producing 3 or more. We still trust the pattern between these two and want the low scoring game.

💬 Arsenal are deep in a grind, and their scorelines tell it. They have won their last five games, reading 1-0 at Napoli on Wednesday, 2-1 against Chelsea and 1-0 at Villa. Only 8 of Arsenal's last 17 games had 3 or more goals, and their games have just over 2 goals in them on average. Arsenal let in under a goal a game, so they do not trade chances with anybody. Sunderland are the other half of the case. They score less than a goal a game across their 8 home games this year. Only 7 of their last 17 games had 3 or more goals. These two have met 19 times, with Sunderland winning 1, tying 6 and losing 12, though the recent meetings have not been quiet ones. Arsenal also come in on 3 days of rest after a European trip, with Saliba out for months and Timber and Mosquera both in doubt. A side in that spot protects what it has. A 1-0 Arsenal win is the likeliest finish, and that is a comfortable one for us. There are ways this breaks. Sunderland have been making more chances than their home scoring suggests, and a patched up Arsenal back line invites a goal. Arsenal also won the last meeting here 3-0. We still want the quiet game.

💬 Madrid win these games, but they almost never win them big, and that is the case for Rayo here. The last five meetings finished 2-1, 0-0, 2-1, 3-3 and 1-1. Madrid lead the head to head 14 wins to 2 across the last 20, and not one of those recent games was a wide one. Madrid have won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of their last 15, and they score almost 2 goals a game. They are also missing Militao, Mendy and Rodrygo, and they played in Europe on Tuesday with only 4 days before this one. Rayo are the weaker side, and they play like a team that knows it. They have lost by 2 or more goals in just 3 of their last 16 games, and they have scored in each of their last four. Rayo do travel badly, with 3 wins in 9 away trips, and they come without Palazon, Nteka and the suspended De Frutos. That thins the part of the team that usually keeps them in games like this. A 3-1 Madrid win is the likeliest finish, and a two goal defeat is fine for us. The risk is real, though. Madrid score more than 2 goals a game at home, and Rayo's patched up attack may leave them chasing all night. We still think Rayo stay within range here.

💬 Vitoria cannot score, and that is the heart of this pick. They have not scored in three of their five league games, and they took 29 shots against Casa Pia last weekend and still tied 0-0. Vitoria score less than a goal a game, and only 2 of their last 11 games had 3 or more goals in them. Viseu are not any better in front of goal at this level. They have not scored in either of their top flight home games, losing 0-3 to Porto and 0-1 to Santa Clara. Their scoring numbers come mostly from second tier games against weaker teams, so treat them with care. Viseu's games have just over 2 goals in them on average, and they let in under a goal a game. Put the two together and you get a night with very little happening at either end. Vitoria should hold the ball and the ground, and Vitoria winning 1-0 is the likeliest finish. A goalless game is live as well, and both of those suit us. The warning is simple. Nine of Viseu's last 18 games had 3 or more goals, and one of their two home games at this level ended 0-3. An early goal would change the shape of this completely, because Vitoria do make plenty of chances. We still expect a tight, low scoring game.