IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.75: Kalmar have stopped scoring. Their last four league games finished 0-1, 0-1, 0-0 and 0-4, so they have not scored in four games in a row. They have won one of nine away games and let in more than a goal a game on the road. A team in that state does not come to Borås and trade goals. Elfsborg do not blow sides away either. They let in 1 goal a game at Borås Arena, and only 9 of their last 19 games had 3 or more goals in them. They are short of bodies too, with Frick out with a broken ankle and Hagg and Rohden also missing. That is an attack that grinds a win out rather than one that runs up a score. Put the two together and the shape of the game picks itself. Elfsborg should have the ball and keep working for one opening. Our read is a 1-0 Elfsborg win, which is exactly the quiet game we want. The warning comes from the history. These two have averaged just over 3 goals across their last 19 meetings, and Kalmar won 2-1 at Borås in April. Kalmar have also tied 2-2 with Malmo this season, so the goals are in them when they click. We still think this one stays low.