1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel — Tips & Analysis

Holstein Kiel +0.5: Heidenheim have lost both of their first-choice strikers for this one. Zivzivadze has been ill all week after scoring the winner at Greuther Fürth, Breunig has a torn muscle, and Conteh is hurt too. That is a good side asked to play without its front line. Heidenheim sit fourth and have won their last two, but the back door has been wide open. They have let in 15 goals in their last five, including 5 at fourth-tier Jeddeloh in the cup and 4 at Hertha. They let in more than 2 goals a game overall. Kiel are bottom on three points and that table position lies. They have won 6 and lost only 3 of their last 13, and they are unbeaten in four of their last five. On the road they are a real team at 4W-1D-2L. Kiel let in just over a goal a game, so they will not be run over here. The likely finish is a 1-2 to Kiel, with Heidenheim making chances and paying for the gaps they leave. The risk is history. Heidenheim have won 8 of the last 16 meetings between the clubs and lost only 4, so this is a game they usually handle. If a stand-in striker clicks early, they can still win it. We are with Kiel anyway.