Tips — Thursday, 22 October 2026

💬 The number that matters most here is how rarely Kairat get beaten badly. They have lost by 2 or more goals in just 3 of their last 20 games. That is the whole case for keeping this close. Kairat are a different team at their own ground, where they have won 8 of 11. Taking all their games together, they score almost 2 goals a game and let in under one. Panathinaikos are the better side and they will keep the ball for long spells. They have won 12 of their last 16 and lost only one. But they win their away games tight rather than wide. They have taken six of their last seven on the road and let in under a goal a game there, and they score less on the road. They are short up front too. Andraz Sporar has not travelled and Azzedine Ounahi is out, so the visitors look short of someone to finish what they make. Then there is the trip itself. Almaty is the longest and most awkward journey in European football, and it tends to flatten the better team. A 1-1 looks the likely finish, with Panathinaikos passing it around and Kairat taking something from a set piece or a break. The worry is clear. Kairat's only two games against a big European side were a 0-3 at home and a 0-3 away to Anderlecht in August. We still think they stay in this one.

💬 Dinamo are close to unbeatable at the Maksimir. They have won 8 of their last 9 there and tied the other, and they let in under a goal a game at home. NEC arrive in no shape to test that. They have won just 3 of their last 15 games and have gone five without a win. They score just over a goal a game and let in almost 2. Europe has been harsher still. Juventus beat them 5-0 and Bodo/Glimt beat them 3-0 already this season. The team news makes it worse. NEC are missing seven players, including centre backs Nuytinck and Sandler, the suspended Thomas and the injured Mor, with Tadic a doubt. Losing two first choice centre backs against a side that scores more than 2 a game at home is a problem they may not solve. NEC have also lost by 2 or more in 5 of their last 15. A 3-0 to Dinamo is the likely finish, with the game decided inside the first hour. Two things could spoil it. NEC have played better than their results suggest, tying 1-1 at Ajax and 1-1 with Levski in their last four, so they can frustrate good teams. Dinamo have a league game to follow and a home win over Anderlecht already banked, so they may rest players. We still want Dinamo to win this one clearly.

💬 The best reason to back Torreense here is that Ferencvaros rarely win big. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of their last 19 games. Seven of those 19 finished level. Ferencvaros are clearly the better team and they have not lost at home this season, winning four and tying four there. They score 2 goals a game and let in under one, so they will control the ball for long spells in Budapest. They are also short handed, with seven players out, including Bero and his broken leg. Torreense are a second tier Portuguese club and they are no better than they look. They score just over a goal a game on the road and have won 6 of their last 16 games. What helps them is a habit of losing small. Torreense have lost by 2 or more goals in just 2 of their last 16. They also arrive with 7 days of rest, and Ferencvaros have had only 4. The honest read is a 2-0 home win, and that is not enough for us. We need the hosts to win small, a 1-0 or a 2-1, and their run of tight games says that is well within range. The danger is plain. Ferencvaros beat Trabzonspor 4-0 at home in this competition, so they can take a weaker side apart. We still fancy Torreense to keep this close.

💬 Juventus are not winning games by big margins right now. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 13 games, and they score under 2 goals a game. That is the case for Rennes keeping this tight in Turin. The hosts lead the league phase after a 5-0 home win over NEC Nijmegen and a 2-1 win at Celta Vigo. Their attack has been pulled apart though. Ten players are out, including Yildiz, Thuram, Conceicao and Milik, and Durmisi is suspended. Juventus were also beaten 0-3 at home by Lazio four days ago. Rennes can hurt them. They score almost 2 goals a game and 10 of their last 12 games had 3 or more goals. They have lost only 4 of those 12, so this is not a side that rolls over. Only 5 of Juventus' last 13 games had 3 or more goals, so low scoring nights are their normal. A 2-1 Juventus win is the likely finish, and a one goal game is just what we want. The risk sits in Rennes' travelling. They have lost four of six on the road and let in almost 3 goals a game away, including a 0-4 at Lyon. If that version turns up, this is gone by the hour mark. We still think Rennes make a game of it.

💬 Lech Poznan games are busy ones. Their last 19 have averaged almost 4 goals in total, and 16 of those 19 had 3 or more goals. That is the clearest reason to want goals tonight. At home in Poznan they score more than 2 goals a game, with recent wins of 6-1 over Korona Kielce and 5-1 over Radomiak. Lech have won 8 of their 11 home games this season. They are bottom of the league phase with no points, so they have to come out and chase this. Sunderland help the case at the back. They let in almost 2 goals a game across nine away games. They are also missing six players, with Mundle out and Isidor, Ballard and Meunier all doubtful. A thin, changed back line at a loud ground is how goals arrive. Lech are short too, without Gholizadeh, Sayyadmanesh, Douglas and Moutinho. A 2-1 home win looks the likely finish, and that is enough for us. The catch is where Lech's goals have come from. Those big wins came in the Polish league, and in the league phase they have not scored in either game so far. Sunderland's own games are quiet, with just 6 of their last 17 having 3 or more goals, and they score just over a goal a game. We still want the busier game here.

💬 Union are a far better team than Hapoel Beer Sheva, and that is the whole case here. Union have lost once in their last 14 games. They score more than 2 goals a game, let in less than one, and have won by 2 or more in 7 of those 14. They have not lost by 2 or more once in that run. Hapoel are solid without carrying much of a threat. They score just over a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. They have also lost half of their eight away games, letting in almost 2 a game in them. This one is being played in Dusseldorf, not at Union's own ground, so neither side is really at home. That suits Union fine. Away from their own ground they have won 5 of seven games this season, scoring almost 3 a game. A 2-0 Union win looks the most likely score, and that gives us the margin we need. The worry is the team sheet, with eight players out, including Mac Allister and Rodriguez. Hapoel can also dig in, as they showed when they held Dinamo Zagreb to a goalless tie. If they put everyone behind the ball, the margin could stay small. Union still have far too much for them, so we are taking the clear win.

💬 Lugano just do not lose. They have won 16 and tied 3 of their last 19 games, with no defeats at all in that run. They have not lost by 2 or more goals once. That is the main reason we are with them at the Coliseum. Getafe make it awkward. They have not lost at home this season, winning four and tying three, and they let in less than a goal a game there. They also barely score, under a goal a game, and only 4 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. So the hosts will sit deep, slow everything down and make the visitors chase. Lugano have the players for that kind of night. They score more than 3 goals a game, have won their last five in a row, and beat Crvena Zvezda 3-2 in this competition. They sit 8th in the league phase table to Getafe's 15th. Getafe are badly short too, without Mangala, Juanmi, Zaid Romero, Azon and Uche, and Carvajal cannot play in this competition. A 1-1 is the likely finish here and that suits us. The warning is clear. A scrappy 1-0 for Getafe is exactly the kind of night their home record is built on. Lugano have not met many sides who defend as stubbornly as this one. We are still on the Swiss side.

💬 Escaldes' home record looks great until you see who it came against. Those home wins came against Carroi, Ranger's and Atletic Club d'Escaldes, all from the Andorran league. Against real European sides they have shown their level. They tied 0-0 at home with Drita in the qualifiers and lost 0-2 at Mjallby in the league phase. Craiova are a step up. They have won 9 and tied 6 of their last 19 games and have not lost in their last five. That run takes in a 5-0 win over FCSB and a 1-1 tie with Getafe in this competition. They let in under a goal a game, so they can keep this quiet and win it late. Escaldes do score, just over 2 goals a game, and 12 of their last 17 games had 3 or more goals. Almost all of that came in Andorra. A 0-1 Craiova win is the likely finish and that is the result we want. This is far from safe. Craiova travel poorly for a side this good, scoring under a goal a game across nine away games. Escaldes already held Drita to 0-0 at home, so a frustrating, goalless hour is very possible. We back the Romanians to find the one moment that decides it.

💬 Brann are the better side, but they do not win by much. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 19 games, and they lost 6 of those 19. That is the case for Kauno Žalgiris staying with them. Brann run hot and cold. They beat Bodo/Glimt 2-1, then lost 0-2 at home to Viking and 1-3 at Valerenga. Their only win in the league phase was a 2-1 at home to Lincoln Red Imps. They score almost 2 goals a game and let in well over one, so this is no steamroller. Kauno Žalgiris are hard work at their own ground. They have won 6 of their last 8 there, scoring more than 2 goals a game and letting in under one. They have won 11 of their last 19 overall. Add a heavy pitch in late October and a home crowd, and a 1-1 looks the likely finish. That is the result we want. Be careful here though. Most of those home numbers come from the Lithuanian league, but they did beat Besiktas 1-0 at their own ground in the Europa League playoff. Their one night in the league phase was a 0-4 loss at Brighton where they created next to nothing. If Brann's away form turns up, they win this by two. We still think the hosts stay in it.

💬 CSKA Sofia do not lose games by a lot. They have lost by 2 or more goals in just 3 of their last 20, and they have lost once in eleven away games. On the road they let in under a goal a game. That is the backbone of this pick. Nordsjaelland are the better side on the night and they are mean at home. They have let in one goal in eight home games and won seven of them. But they win tight. They have won by 2 or more in 7 of their last 19 games, so a big home win is not their usual night. They have tied three of their last four as well, including a 3-3 at Lyngby and a 1-1 at Hearts. CSKA carry a threat of their own. They have scored in nine of their last ten games, including a 3-2 at CSKA 1948 and a 4-1 against Arda. They also had 20 shots in losing to Monaco. These two are closely matched, with the home ground doing most of the separating. A 1-1 is the likely finish and that is a comfortable result here. Two honest warnings. An early Nordsjaelland goal would force CSKA to open up and chase, and this home side is strong enough to punish that. CSKA are also without the suspended Brahimi and the injured Gbamin, which takes some bite out of their attack. We still expect CSKA to keep this close enough.

💬 Trabzonspor are flying and Hearts are in trouble, and that gap is the reason we want the bigger win. Trabzonspor have won 4 of their last 5, with a 4-0 against Galatasaray and a 2-0 derby win over Besiktas in there. At Papara Park they have won 5 and lost 2 of seven, scoring just over 2 goals a game and letting in less than one. Hearts turn up in poor shape. They were beaten 7-1 at Celtic at the weekend and have no win in their last three on the road. Away from home they have won 2 of nine, scoring just over a goal a game and letting in almost 3. Hearts do tend to score, and 13 of their last 18 games had 3 or more goals in them. That points to an open game rather than a tight one. A 3-1 home win looks the most likely score, and a 2-goal margin is exactly what this bet wants. The risk is that Trabzonspor are not always ruthless. They have won by 2 or more in only 5 of their last 15 games, and four of their nine wins came by a single goal. They also played a derby on Monday, so some changes are possible. We are still happy to ask for the clear win.

💬 Beşiktaş are a different team in Istanbul, and that is where this pick starts. They have won all eight home games in this run and let in only four goals across them. They already beat Marseille 4-1 at home this season, and Vlahović has six goals in six league games. Palace are falling apart on the road. They have won one of their last six away games, they let in 2 goals a game on their travels, and they barely score away from home. Last weekend they were beaten 0-5 at Brighton. Before that they were beaten 2-3 away at Lyon in this competition. The team news is just as bad for them. Riad, Doucouré, Lerma, Guessand and Gozo are all out, and Henderson, Chilwell and Tomiyasu were doubtful. Beşiktaş let in under a goal a game overall and have won 12 of their last 16. Palace still have enough up front to get a goal, so a 2-1 home win looks the likeliest night, and that is plenty for us. The risk is real, though. Beşiktaş are without captain Orkun Kökcü, their main creator, and Milot Rashica, and they had only three days off after a 0-2 beating at Trabzonspor. They are streaky too, with four defeats in this run. We still back the hosts to have too much for a patched up Palace.

💬 Goals keep showing up in both these teams' games, and that is where we start. 9 of Bournemouth's last 15 games had 3 or more goals in them, and so did 9 of Milan's last 16. Bournemouth are the main reason we want goals here. They have lost one of their nine home games and score 2 goals a game at the Vitality. They have also been creating more than their results show over the last month, and their press keeps forcing mistakes high up the pitch. Milan will not sit back either. They score more than a goal a game, they travel well, and they have a 3-2 win over Atalanta and a 4-0 against Salzburg in the bank. They have won 7 of their last 16. Neither back line is mean. Bournemouth let in just over a goal a game and Milan are the same, so both ends look gettable. Our read is a 2-1 home win, which does the job for us. The honest worry is that it does not take much for this to tighten up. Milan lost Gonçalo Ramos and Samuel Chukwueze to injury right before travelling, on top of Saelemaekers. That may leave an 18 year old in Camarda leading the line. Both defences have also been hard to crack lately, so a 1-0 or 2-0 home win is live. We still want the busier game.

💬 Anderlecht come to Bialystok with their defence in pieces, and that is where this pick starts. Sardella, Biancone, Camara and Hey are all out, so four defenders are missing. Their confidence is thin too. They lost 1-2 to second tier Beerschot in the cup four days ago. Dinamo Zagreb beat them 1-0 in the last round, and they sit 29th with no points. Anderlecht also travel very narrowly. Their nine away games average 1 goal scored and 1 let in, and they have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 17. This is not a side that runs over hosts. Jagiellonia have enough at home to trade with them. They score more than a goal a game, and 11 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals in them. There is very little between these two on the night. Both have had four days off, and both are short of bodies. A 1-1 looks the likeliest score, and a tie keeps us on the right side. The honest warning is Jagiellonia's form. They have lost four of their last five, and they are missing six of their own squad, including Polak, Prelec and Zalewski. Anderlecht are the better team on paper, with 10 wins in their last 17 and under a goal let in per game. We still take the hosts with a head start.

💬 Real Sociedad hardly ever win by a distance, and that is the strongest reason this is on. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 12 games. Lillestrom are hard to beat by a distance too. They have lost by 2 or more goals in just 4 of their last 18, and they won 8 of those 18. They score more than a goal a game and let in just over a goal a game, so their nights are usually close. Sociedad are the better side, but they are leaky. They let in almost 2 goals a game, and 8 of their last 12 games had 3 or more goals in them. On the road they score 2 goals a game and let in almost 2, so they trade chances rather than squeeze games. They are also without both of their specialist full backs. Odriozola and Aramburu are out, and Beitia and Herrera are doubtful, so the flanks look weak at Åråsen. A 1-2 away win is our read of the night, and keeping this to one goal keeps us on the right side. The warning is Lillestrom's home form. It is the weaker half of their season at 3 wins, 1 tie and 4 losses, and their last four performances were worse than the results. We still want Lillestrom with a head start.

💬 Olympiakos keep winning, but they keep winning small. They have won by exactly one goal in seven of their last 14 games, and by 2 or more only twice. That is the shape this pick lives on. Olympiakos have won five in a row and have not let a goal in for four games, so they will probably take the three points again. They score more than a goal a game and let in well under one, and their games average almost 2 goals in total. Their attack is thin right now, with El Kaabi and Fortounis both out, so a big win is a stretch. Sparta let in just over a goal a game on the road, so their away defeats tend to be narrow. Their last three competitive games finished 0-0, 1-1 and 2-0, and they know how to keep things tight. Expect Sparta to sit in, stay compact and hunt a set piece. A 1-0 Olympiakos win is the most likely finish, and a single goal defeat is exactly the shape we want. The warning is Sparta's team news. They are without six players, including defenders and midfielders who normally start. If that spine cracks early, Olympiakos can add a second. We are still happy to back Sparta to stay close.

💬 Plzen cannot keep a game quiet. 12 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals, and their home games average almost 4 goals across eight. Plzen score almost 2 goals a game and let in almost 2, and that leaky back line is the heart of this pick. They have not taken a point in the league phase yet. Sitting back and protecting a clean sheet is not really an option for them. Levski are the sounder team at the back. They let in a goal a game on the road, and they have won six, tied three and lost one of ten away games. Their attack is the problem. Levski have scored once in three European games this season, and they are missing five players. So this needs Plzen to do the heavy lifting at both ends, which is exactly what they have been doing. A 2-1 is the most likely finish, and that clears this. The honest risk is Levski. Their games average just over 2 goals in total. They have played low scoring football in Europe so far, and if they do that again, the goals may not come. Plzen's defence has been too generous for us to expect that, so we want the busier game.

💬 Egnatia hardly ever get beaten by a distance, and that is the heart of this pick. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 19 games. They have also won 11 of those 19, they score more than 2 goals a game, and they let in just over a goal a game. Aarhus are the ones in trouble. They have won only 4 of their last 19 and tied 6 of them, and they have created almost nothing in their last four games. They let in almost 2 goals a game, so the visitors should get on the scoresheet. There is another helping hand. This game is at Cepheus Park in Randers, not Aarhus's usual ground, so the home comforts are thinner than normal. Egnatia have already shown they can live at this level. They held Midtjylland to a 1-1 tie on 15 October, then beat Vllaznia 3-1 at the weekend. Both sides have had four days off. A 1-1 looks the most likely score here, and a tie is good enough for us. The honest worry is that Egnatia's big numbers come mostly against Albanian league teams, so a jump in class could expose them. There is also no team news for either side, so nobody knows who is fit. We are happy to take the visitors with a head start.

💬 KuPS games are quiet, and that is the whole case here. Only 5 of their last 20 games had 3 or more goals in them. They score just over a goal a game and let in just over a goal a game, so very little happens at either end. Borac are tight at home too. They have won all eight home games in this run and let in only two goals across them. Borac have also had a full week off. KuPS have had four days, after four games in a fortnight, and tired legs do not make for an open night. Both teams lost their opening league-phase game and are still without a point, so both badly need a result. That usually brings caution rather than risk. A single Borac goal deciding a tight night is the likeliest outcome, and a 1-0 keeps us well clear. The warning comes from KuPS's last European night. They were beaten 2-4 at home by Trabzonspor, so better teams can pull them apart. Borac's strong home numbers also come mostly against Bosnian league sides, and their only game at this level, away at Panathinaikos, went badly. If the hosts get an early goal and chase a second, this gets uncomfortable. We still expect a low scoring, nervy night in Banja Luka.

💬 Gent squeeze the life out of games. They are unbeaten in 16, they let in well under a goal a game, and only 6 of those 16 games had 3 or more goals. That is the backbone of this pick. Their margins are tiny too. Gent have six ties and seven one goal wins in their last 16, and they have won by 2 or more only three times. Braga are in no state to blow that open. They score just over a goal a game, their games average 2 goals in total, and they have lost three of their last four. They were beaten 0-3 by Copenhagen in their first league phase game and have no points from it. Braga will have more of the ball at their own ground, and Gent will be happy to take what they are given. Braga are also on three days rest after a 1-2 defeat on Sunday. A 1-1 is the most likely finish, and that lands on the right side of this. The risk is Braga's home form. They have won five and lost two at their own ground, letting in under a goal a game. They can play better here than their recent run suggests. Gent were also held 3-3 by a lower division cup side on 18 October. We still expect a tight, low scoring night.

💬 Twente are clearly the better team, but they do not often win by a lot. They have won by 2 or more goals in just 5 of their last 16 games. Lincoln are also hard to beat badly, with only 2 defeats by 2 or more in their last 19. They let in less than a goal a game. At their own ground they are organised and they tend to start fast. Lincoln have scored the first goal in six of their last seven games, which would force Twente to chase. Twente score just over 2 goals a game and will keep the ball for long spells. Even so, one goal was enough for them in their opening league phase game, a 1-0 win over Thun. A trip to Gibraltar before a league weekend is also the sort of night managers use to rest players. This looks like a job to be done rather than a thrashing. A 1-2 is the most likely finish, with Twente scoring after the break and Lincoln getting something for their effort. That is a one goal defeat, which is comfortable here. The honest worry is where Lincoln's record comes from. Five of their last ten games came against Gibraltar league teams like Lynx, Europa and Mons Calpe, so their defensive numbers are softer than they look. We still back Lincoln to keep this tight enough.

💬 Midtjylland take this on with their back line pulled apart, and that is the heart of the pick. Centre backs Martin Erlic and Magnus Jensen are both out long term, goalkeeper Elias Olafsson is missing, and forwards Junior Brumado and Mikel Gogorza are out too. Midtjylland are strong at the MCH Arena, where they have won six of eight and score 2 goals a game. The thing is, they win tight rather than big. Their last four games finished 2-1, 1-1, 2-1 and 1-1, and they have won by 2 or more goals in only 6 of their last 19. They also let in just over a goal a game at home, so visitors get chances here. St. Truiden can take one. They score 2 goals a game and their trips have been wide open, with more than 2 goals scored and almost 3 let in. 7 of their last 12 games had 3 or more goals in them. The visitors are the fresher side too, after Midtjylland played on 19 October. A 2-1 home win looks the likeliest night, and that is cutting it fine, so we need St. Truiden to stay within a goal. The worry is their away record. They have won one of five on the road, and they have been beaten by 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 12. We still back the Belgians to keep this close against a patched up home defence.

💬 Freiburg do not play quiet games. 14 of their last 16 had 3 or more goals, and their games average almost 4 goals in total. That is the main reason we want goals here. Monaco are not built to shut a game down either. They score almost 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal a game. 8 of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals. At their own ground they have won three, tied one and lost one of five, scoring 2 goals a game in those. Freiburg score more than 2 goals a game and let in more than one, so neither defence looks safe. Monaco are missing centre back Eric Dier and winger Stanis Idumbo, which does not help a back line that already leaks. Freiburg are without Florent Muslija. Neither team really controls games like this, so expect the lead to change hands and a slip at the back to decide it. A 2-2 looks the most likely finish, and that clears this comfortably. The risk is Freiburg's weekend. They play Bayern Munich on Sunday and have already left Philipp Lienhart in Germany to rest him. A heavily changed side could make this flatter than it should be. We still want the busy game.

💬 Hajduk are a lot better than Thun, and that is the simple case here. They have won 14 of their last 20 games, and they have beaten Ajax 2-1 and Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 inside the last two weeks. Thun are having a rough season. They have lost 10 of their last 19 games, and they sit 30th in the league phase with no points. Twente beat them 1-0 in the first round. At the Stockhorn Arena they let in 2 goals a game, and they have won only one of seven there. Hajduk have the tighter defence by a mile. They let in 1 goal a game and score more than 2, and they have won by 2 or more goals in 8 of their last 20. This should be an open night whatever happens. 15 of Thun's last 19 games had 3 or more goals in them, and their games average more than 4 goals in total. That is a dangerous way to play against a side with this much quality. A 1-2 Hajduk win looks the likeliest outcome, and that does the job for us. The catch is that Hajduk are a different team away from Split. They have lost four of their nine road games, and they are without main striker Marko Livaja and first choice keeper Ivica Ivusic. We still back Hajduk to come away with the win.