Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha — Tips & Analysis

Sparta Praha +1.25: Olympiakos keep winning, but they keep winning small. They have won by exactly one goal in seven of their last 14 games, and by 2 or more only twice. That is the shape this pick lives on. Olympiakos have won five in a row and have not let a goal in for four games, so they will probably take the three points again. They score more than a goal a game and let in well under one, and their games average almost 2 goals in total. Their attack is thin right now, with El Kaabi and Fortounis both out, so a big win is a stretch. Sparta let in just over a goal a game on the road, so their away defeats tend to be narrow. Their last three competitive games finished 0-0, 1-1 and 2-0, and they know how to keep things tight. Expect Sparta to sit in, stay compact and hunt a set piece. A 1-0 Olympiakos win is the most likely finish, and a single goal defeat is exactly the shape we want. The warning is Sparta's team news. They are without six players, including defenders and midfielders who normally start. If that spine cracks early, Olympiakos can add a second. We are still happy to back Sparta to stay close.