Bournemouth vs AC Milan — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.5: Goals keep showing up in both these teams' games, and that is where we start. 9 of Bournemouth's last 15 games had 3 or more goals in them, and so did 9 of Milan's last 16. Bournemouth are the main reason we want goals here. They have lost one of their nine home games and score 2 goals a game at the Vitality. They have also been creating more than their results show over the last month, and their press keeps forcing mistakes high up the pitch. Milan will not sit back either. They score more than a goal a game, they travel well, and they have a 3-2 win over Atalanta and a 4-0 against Salzburg in the bank. They have won 7 of their last 16. Neither back line is mean. Bournemouth let in just over a goal a game and Milan are the same, so both ends look gettable. Our read is a 2-1 home win, which does the job for us. The honest worry is that it does not take much for this to tighten up. Milan lost Gonçalo Ramos and Samuel Chukwueze to injury right before travelling, on top of Saelemaekers. That may leave an 18 year old in Camarda leading the line. Both defences have also been hard to crack lately, so a 1-0 or 2-0 home win is live. We still want the busier game.