FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia — Tips & Analysis

CSKA Sofia +1.5: CSKA Sofia do not lose games by a lot. They have lost by 2 or more goals in just 3 of their last 20, and they have lost once in eleven away games. On the road they let in under a goal a game. That is the backbone of this pick. Nordsjaelland are the better side on the night and they are mean at home. They have let in one goal in eight home games and won seven of them. But they win tight. They have won by 2 or more in 7 of their last 19 games, so a big home win is not their usual night. They have tied three of their last four as well, including a 3-3 at Lyngby and a 1-1 at Hearts. CSKA carry a threat of their own. They have scored in nine of their last ten games, including a 3-2 at CSKA 1948 and a 4-1 against Arda. They also had 20 shots in losing to Monaco. These two are closely matched, with the home ground doing most of the separating. A 1-1 is the likely finish and that is a comfortable result here. Two honest warnings. An early Nordsjaelland goal would force CSKA to open up and chase, and this home side is strong enough to punish that. CSKA are also without the suspended Brahimi and the injured Gbamin, which takes some bite out of their attack. We still expect CSKA to keep this close enough.