FC Midtjylland vs St. Truiden — Tips & Analysis

St. Truiden +1: Midtjylland take this on with their back line pulled apart, and that is the heart of the pick. Centre backs Martin Erlic and Magnus Jensen are both out long term, goalkeeper Elias Olafsson is missing, and forwards Junior Brumado and Mikel Gogorza are out too. Midtjylland are strong at the MCH Arena, where they have won six of eight and score 2 goals a game. The thing is, they win tight rather than big. Their last four games finished 2-1, 1-1, 2-1 and 1-1, and they have won by 2 or more goals in only 6 of their last 19. They also let in just over a goal a game at home, so visitors get chances here. St. Truiden can take one. They score 2 goals a game and their trips have been wide open, with more than 2 goals scored and almost 3 let in. 7 of their last 12 games had 3 or more goals in them. The visitors are the fresher side too, after Midtjylland played on 19 October. A 2-1 home win looks the likeliest night, and that is cutting it fine, so we need St. Truiden to stay within a goal. The worry is their away record. They have won one of five on the road, and they have been beaten by 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 12. We still back the Belgians to keep this close against a patched up home defence.