Real Madrid vs Sevilla — Tips & Analysis

Sevilla +2: Madrid win this game more often than not, but they rarely win it big. The last three meetings finished 1-0, 2-0 and 2-0. Those were controlled wins, not thrashings, and that is the pattern we are backing. Madrid are missing most of their front line. Vinicius Junior is suspended, Rodrygo has been out a long time, and Asencio and Mendy are out as well. They also played a 4-3 Champions League game in Rome four days ago. Sevilla have had six days off. Madrid have won all seven home games at 3 goals a game, so they are still the better side here. Sevilla do not fold on the road. They have won three of six away games at almost 2 goals a game, with a 3-3 at Levante and a 3-1 at Athletic Club in that run. They have lost by 2 or more goals only twice in their last 12 games. Mbappe and Bellingham should still win it for Madrid. A patched up attack and a weakened back four point to a 2-1, not a big win, and that keeps Sevilla inside the margin we need. The danger is real. Madrid have 4-0, 4-1 and 4-1 home wins this season and won by 2 or more in 6 of their last 15. Sevilla are also missing Romero, Marcao, Guridi and Sierra. We still think this one stays close.