Lorient vs Toulouse — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: This matchup has been tight for years. Only 6 of the last 20 meetings produced 3 goals or more, and those games averaged just over 2 goals each. The last five read 0-1, 1-1, 1-2, 1-1 and 0-1. Lorient keep games quiet. They let in just over a goal a game across their last 14, and only 5 of those 14 games had 3 or more goals. They come in off a 1-0 win at Lens, so they know how to protect a narrow lead. Toulouse are 17th on 1 point and score just over a goal a game. They travel without goalkeeper Restes, plus Donnum and Francis, and a new goalkeeper usually means a careful away plan. Lorient are 8th and look the steadier side. One Lorient goal in a game of few clear chances should be enough to decide it, and a 1-0 is the likeliest finish. That keeps the total right where we want it. The honest worry is Toulouse's recent play. They have taken one point from their last three games and made far more chances than that suggests. Their own games have averaged 3 goals, with 10 of their last 17 producing 3 or more. We still trust the pattern between these two and want the low scoring game.