Lazio vs AC Milan — Tips & Analysis

Lazio +0.25: Both of these sides have been winning tight games, and that is what makes a small head start on Lazio worth taking. Milan have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 16 games, so they are not a side that pulls clear. Lazio have won their last three league games and every one came by a single goal, 2-1 at Udinese then 1-0 against Genoa and 1-0 at Bologna. They sit third. Milan have been just as controlled. They let in under a goal a game on the road across their last eight away trips, and they have let in only two goals in three games. The history says the same. The last 20 meetings averaged just over 2 goals, and three of the last five finished 1-0 or 0-1. A 1-0 to Lazio is the likeliest finish, one goal deciding a game neither side wants to open up. Lazio avoiding defeat is all we are asking for. The honest warning is the injury list. Rovella and Cataldi are both out, and those are the two who control the middle of the pitch for Lazio. Their home run is the weaker half of their season too, 2 wins, 2 ties and 3 losses at the Olimpico, letting in almost 2 goals a game. We still want Lazio with the head start.