Casa Pia vs FC Porto — Tips & Analysis

FC Porto -1.5: Porto keep winning by two goals, and they come up against a side that cannot score at all. Four of Porto's last five league games ended in a win by two goals or more, reading 3-0, 2-0, 2-0 and 2-0. They are top of the league with 15 points from five games and have won 12 of their last 18 in all competitions. Casa Pia are bottom on 1 point from five, with a goal difference of -11. They have not scored in any of their last five games, a run of 0-0, 0-1, 0-2, 0-7 and 0-1. Casa Pia score less than a goal a game, and their recent games show them being badly outplayed rather than unlucky. The head to head says the same thing. Casa Pia have won 1, tied 1 and lost 7 of the last 9 meetings with Porto. Expect the visitors to lead by the break and add a second, with 0-2 the likeliest finish. That is the game we are backing. The care point is how Casa Pia lose. They have only lost by 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 17 games, so they usually sit deep and keep the score down. Porto also played in Europe four days ago without Samu Aghehowa, Jan Bednarek and Victor Froholdt, so changes are possible. We still think Porto have far too much here.