Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 — Tips & Analysis

SC Paderborn 07 +2: Dortmund are in no state to run up a score. They are missing seven players, including E. Can, J. Lerma and the suspended S. Inacio, and they played Villarreal on Tuesday with four days to recover. Paderborn have had seven. Dortmund have won 11 of their last 15 without a single tie, and they score more than 2 goals a game. The catch for them is the margin. They won by 2 or more goals in only 6 of those 15 games, so the big win is not their normal night. Paderborn are built to make that hard. Their away record reads 4 wins, 4 ties and 1 loss, and they let in just over a goal a game on the road. They have lost by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 17 games. That last number is the heart of this pick. Expect Paderborn to sit deep and make Dortmund work for every opening. A controlled 2-0 home win is the likeliest finish, and that is cutting it fine. We want Paderborn to keep the gap down to a single goal. That is a real ask. Paderborn have not scored in the Bundesliga yet, losing 0-1 to Freiburg and tying 0-0 at Mainz, and a side that cannot score can get worn down late. We still think Paderborn keep this close.