Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano — Tips & Analysis

Rayo Vallecano +2.75: Madrid win these games, but they almost never win them big, and that is the case for Rayo here. The last five meetings finished 2-1, 0-0, 2-1, 3-3 and 1-1. Madrid lead the head to head 14 wins to 2 across the last 20, and not one of those recent games was a wide one. Madrid have won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of their last 15, and they score almost 2 goals a game. They are also missing Militao, Mendy and Rodrygo, and they played in Europe on Tuesday with only 4 days before this one. Rayo are the weaker side, and they play like a team that knows it. They have lost by 2 or more goals in just 3 of their last 16 games, and they have scored in each of their last four. Rayo do travel badly, with 3 wins in 9 away trips, and they come without Palazon, Nteka and the suspended De Frutos. That thins the part of the team that usually keeps them in games like this. A 3-1 Madrid win is the likeliest finish, and a two goal defeat is fine for us. The risk is real, though. Madrid score more than 2 goals a game at home, and Rayo's patched up attack may leave them chasing all night. We still think Rayo stay within range here.