1. FC Köln vs Werder Bremen — Tips & Analysis

Werder Bremen +0.5: These two do not beat each other, and that is the simplest case for Werder. The last 20 meetings produced ten ties, with five wins each way. Köln are not the side to break that pattern. They have won 3, tied 6 and lost 8 of their last 17 games, and at home they have won only two of eight. Their defence is the problem. They let in just over 2 goals a game at home, and they were beaten 4-1 at Stuttgart last time out. Köln games do not stay quiet either, and 14 of their last 17 had 3 or more goals. Werder will get their chances here. Werder have won 6 and lost 7 of their last 14, and they beat RB Leipzig 3-1 in that run. A 2-2 is the likeliest finish, an even game between two sides who both leak goals. Werder avoiding defeat is all we are asking for. Two things worry us. Werder are without Topp, Njinmah, Stage and Agu, which takes a big chunk out of the attack. Their last two performances were also far worse than that 3-1 win suggests. They have also lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 14. We still expect Werder to take something from this one.