Tips — Friday, 11 September 2026

💬 Goals follow Kyoto around at home. Their nine home games have averaged more than 3 goals, and they let in 2 a game there. That is where this pick starts. Kyoto sit 15th with five points from six league games and a goal difference of -4. They score just over a goal a game and let in almost 2. They have lost 10 of their last 19 games, and 7 of those defeats were by 2 or more goals, so they do not shut games down. Kashiwa are fourth and score more than a goal a game. They have lost their last two 0-2 and 0-2, but they made the better chances in both games, so the goals should come back soon. The odd part of their season is that they have not tied once in 19 games. Every match they play ends with a winner. Games between these two open up as well. The last 15 meetings averaged more than 3 goals. Our read is a 2-1 Kashiwa win. Three goals in the game is what we are after, and that read gets us there. The catch is that only 6 of those 15 meetings had 3 or more goals, so a couple of wild nights carry that average. Kyoto also won the last meeting 1-0 in June, so they can make this awkward. We still want the goals here.

💬 Nothing separates these two. The last 20 meetings are split 8 wins each with 4 ties, and those games averaged under 3 goals. In a game this even, we want the side getting the head start. Kobe are second and playing well. They have won their last four games. At home they let in only a goal a game across nine matches. They have lost by 2 or more just 3 times in their last 18 games. They are hard to beat properly. Kashima are third and have the better record, with 12 wins in 19 games. They score almost 2 goals a game. They have lost their last two though, 0-1 at home to Urawa and 2-4 at Mito Hollyhock, so they arrive with questions at the back. Both teams have had five days off, so nobody is short of rest. Our read is a 1-1 tie. Kobe need to avoid defeat and that read gives us it, with a Kobe win the bonus on top. The warning sits in this game's own history. It has produced one-sided results in both directions inside four months. Kobe won 5-0 in May and Kashima won 2-0 in June, so a quiet 1-1 is far from guaranteed. We are still happy to take Kobe with a start.

💬 Chiangrai have stopped letting goals in. They have given up one goal in their last six games, with scores of 1-0, 1-0, 0-0, 1-0, 2-0 and 1-1. That defense is the reason we expect a quiet night. Buriram are the champions and they have won their last five games. They score almost 2 goals a game and at home they let in under one. They are the better side by a distance and they should control this from the front. Chiangrai travel with a clear plan. They have won 7, tied 7 and lost 6 of their last 20 games. Their games average under 3 goals in total, and they have lost by 2 or more only twice in those 20. They sit deep and make you work for everything. Our read is a 2-0 Buriram win. A controlled home win like that keeps the goals down, which is exactly what we want. The risk is worth saying out loud. Buriram have won 14 of the last 20 meetings and some were big wins, including an 8-1 and an 8-0. Both clubs have also played only one league game this season after a long break, so the form on paper may be out of date. We still trust Chiangrai's defense to keep this one small.

💬 Bangkok United do not win away from home. They have won one of their last eleven away games and tied seven of them. A side that travels like that is there to be beaten. Ratchaburi are a different team at Dragon Solar Park. They have won five of nine there and score more than 2 goals a game at home. They have not lost by 2 or more once in their last 20 games, so even on a bad day they stay in the fight. They also went to Bangkok United and won 4-1 back in April. Bangkok United are solid enough overall, with 7 wins and 8 ties in their last 20 games, and they let in just over a goal a game. The trouble is how they play on the road. They score less than a goal a game away and look happy to take a point rather than chase one. Our read is a 2-1 Ratchaburi win, and that lands this pick. Two things give us pause. Bangkok United have won 12 of the last 20 meetings between these clubs, so the history sits against us. Ratchaburi also lost their opener 1-2 at Ayutthaya and have no points yet. We still back the home side to take this.

💬 Bielefeld bring goals with them. Their games have averaged almost 4 goals in total, and 11 of their last 14 had 3 or more. That is the main reason we want the busier game here. Darmstadt are bottom of the table on 1 point from 4 games and let in more than a goal a game. They have lost 8 of their last 15, and they are without suspended centre-back Aleksandar Vukotic plus four more players. That back line was already easy to play through. Bielefeld are no better on the road. They let in almost 3 goals a game away from home, and they are missing suspended midfielder Marvin Mehlem in the middle. Two stretched teams like this tend to leave gaps for each other, and their meetings have averaged just over 3 goals. Our read is a 1-2 Bielefeld win. Three goals is close, but we want one more than that. The case against is real. Darmstadt have not scored in three of their last four league games, and only 7 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals. A quiet 1-0 either way would not be a shock. We still think both defenses give too much away, and we are on goals.

💬 Mjallby arrive in Gothenburg with nothing going for them in front of goal. They have lost five in a row and scored once across the whole run, going down 1-4, 0-2, 0-4, 0-3 and 0-1. A team that blunt does not turn up and trade goals. Mjallby score a goal a game and they have not won on the road at all, at 0W-3D-4L. They are also without Dalsgaard, Isaksson and Stavitski, so there is no quick fix waiting. Hacken are solid rather than scary. They have won 8, tied 7 and lost 4 of their last 19, score more than a goal a game and let in about the same. Seven ties in nineteen tells you how often their games stay tight. The history says the same. The last 16 meetings have averaged just over 2 goals in total, and Hacken hold only a 6W-4D-6L record in them. Put it together and 2-0 to Hacken is the likeliest way this ends, the hosts taking control after an hour and never needing a third. The worry is that Hacken's own games have been busy. 11 of their last 19 had 3 or more goals, and they lost 1-3 at home to Vasteras a fortnight ago. That keeps this closer than it looks, but with a visiting attack this cold, we still want the quiet game.

💬 AZ are flying, but they win these games without burying anyone. They have won by three or more in only 5 of their last 13, and 5 of those 13 ended level. That is the heart of this pick. AZ are the better side by a distance, unbeaten at 8W-5D-0L, top of the league on 15 points from 5 games and winners of their last five. They also leave the back door open at home, where recent games have finished 5-2, 3-3 and 2-2. Willem II have had a rough start to life back in the top flight. They have let in 3, 2, 4 and 4 in four games, sit 16th, and are missing five players including their keeper T. Didillon Hodl. But they keep scoring. Willem II have found the net in three of their four top flight games and score more than a goal a game. That matters more here than the goals they give up. A 3-1 to AZ is the likeliest end. That is a comfortable home win with a goal at the other end, and exactly the result this pick is built for. The risk is real. Willem II lost 1-4 on their only top flight trip so far, and a stand in keeper against an attack this good could get ugly. We still back the visitors to stay within range.

💬 Ceuta are the worst team in the division and they are travelling in a mess. They are bottom on 0 points from 4 games with a goal difference of minus 11, beaten 0-2, 0-3, 0-2 and 1-5. They made this trip with only 19 available players after another round of injuries. Ceuta score under a goal a game, let in almost 2, and have lost by 2 or more in 7 of their last 16. Burgos are the opposite kind of side. They have won 7, tied 6 and lost only 2 of their last 15, and they let in under a goal a game. What they do not do is score freely. Burgos get just over a goal a game and their matches average under 2 goals in total. El Plantio has been a grind all season, with four ties in seven home games, and the only two meetings with Ceuta finished 1-1 and 0-1. So the read is a 1-0 Burgos win, most likely a scrappy goal in a second half they slowly take over. Be clear about the catch. Burgos have won by 2 or more in just 1 of their last 15 games, so the wider the winning margin the better this looks. Against a side with no points, no confidence and barely a squad, we think they have picked the right night to be ruthless.

💬 Schalke have not scored a single Bundesliga goal yet, and that is the simplest reason to want a quiet game here. They held Bayern Muenchen to 0-0 last time out and lost 0-3 before that. A promoted side that defends deep and carries no threat is not the sort to drag a game into a shootout. Schalke let in just over a goal a game, so they keep things tight at their own end too. Union are not much livelier right now. They have tied three of their five home games and are missing five players, including the defenders Friedrich, Markgraf and Nsoki. A patched up back line usually means a careful, slow evening. The head to head says the same thing. Four of the last six meetings ended level, at 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 and 1-1, and those six games averaged just over 2 goals in total. Both teams sit on one point after two rounds and both will take another rather than lose it. A 1-1 is the likeliest score, and that is the game we are betting on. Now the honest part. Union's own games have been wild, with 10 of their last 11 producing 3 or more goals. If that makeshift defense cracks early, this could open up fast. We accept that risk because Schalke have shown nothing going forward, and we want the low scoring game.

💬 Sligo cannot score, and that is the main reason to back the home side. They have managed one goal in their last five games, not counting a cup tie against a junior side. That run includes 0-3 losses to Bohemians and Waterford. On the road Sligo are 2W-2D-7L, scoring under a goal a game and letting in almost 2. A team creating that little rarely wins away from home. Drogheda are not much better, but they do not need to be. They score more than a goal a game and they have something to protect. Drogheda sit 9th on 28 points in the relegation play off place, with Sligo 10th on 23 and both having played 29. That means the hosts treat this like a final and the visitors have to come out and chase it. Games between these two stay tight. The last five finished 2-2, 1-0, 1-2, 1-1 and 1-0, so three of the five had two goals or fewer. A 1-0 home win is the likeliest score, one goal deciding a nervous night. The concern is Drogheda's own home form. They have lost three of their last four at Weavers Park, to Dundalk, St Patrick's and Galway, and they have tied six of their last nineteen games. This is a nervy one, but the visitors carry so little threat that we stay with Drogheda.

💬 Galway tie games. They have won 6, tied 9 and lost 5 of their last 20. Five of their eleven home games have ended level, and three of their last five finished square. That habit is exactly what this pick needs. Galway score more than a goal a game and let in about the same, which tells you how these nights at Eamonn Deacy Park tend to go. They are also hard to beat at home, losing by 2 or more only 4 times in their last 20. Bohemians are a different team on the road. Away from Dalymount they are 3W-3D-4L and their goals for and against even out, a long way from what they do at home. They will have more of the ball with a European place to chase, but they have not been turning that into away wins. The history fits too. These two met in August and finished 1-1, and the last 13 meetings have averaged just over 2 goals in total. A 1-1 is the likeliest end here, a tight night where one goal each is about right. The warning is that Bohemians are playing well. They won their last two home league games 3-0 and 5-3, and they have won 7 of the last 13 against Galway. If they bring that form west, Galway could be second best. We still think the hosts hold them.

💬 These two hardly ever pull apart. Nine of the last 20 meetings ended level, and those games averaged under 2 goals in total. A tight, even night looks likely again, and that is why we want Derry. Shelbourne tie almost everything. They have tied 9 of their last 19 games and won only 5. They score barely more than a goal a game, and they have not scored more than once in a league game since early August. Their last five results read DDDLL, so the goals have dried up. Derry have won 6, tied 6 and lost 8 of their last 20 games. They score more than a goal a game and they have won three of their last five. That is a better run than the home side can point to. A 1-1 is the most likely score at Tolka Park. Shelbourne have to break a stubborn away side down to win this, and they have not been making enough chances to do that. Derry do not need a big performance here. They need to stay tight and keep the game small. There are two clear worries. Derry have one win in nine away games and let in 2 goals a game on their travels. They also played a cup tie on 6 September, so they arrive on five days' rest to Shelbourne's seven. We still trust Derry to come away with something.

💬 Waterford have turned their own ground into a fortress. They have lost once in 11 games there, and they let in just over a goal a game at home. A controlled night is what we want, and the home side have been serving up exactly that. Waterford come in on WWDWW form, with a 2-0 win at St Patrick's and a 3-0 win over Sligo in that run. They score just over 2 goals a game at home. They can win this without the game turning into a shootout. Dundalk look busier than they really are. Their games average more than 3 goals in total, but that number is pulled up by an 8-0 cup win over Castlebar Celtic. They have won 7 and lost 9 of their last 20 games, and their last five read LWLWL. They also lost a cup tie 4-2 at Derry on 6 September, so they travel south on five days' rest to Waterford's seven. A 2-1 Waterford win is the most likely score, and that keeps this pick on the right side. The home side control games rather than trade blows, and a tired away team rarely changes that. History is the warning here. The last 20 meetings between them averaged 3 goals in total, and the last three finished 3-2, 3-3 and 0-5. Waterford's record at home still points to a quieter game, and that is the side we want.

💬 Shamrock Rovers have gone five games without a win and their last five read DDLDL. They are also a different team away from home, with two wins in ten away games. That slump is the main reason we are with St Patrick's here. Richmond Park has been a hard place to score. St Patrick's have let in under a goal a game across 11 home games, winning six of them and losing two. They have won three of their last five as well, so the form line and the home record both point the same way. Rovers score barely more than a goal a game on the road and let in almost 2 on their trips. Last month they lost 1-5 at Egnatia and 0-1 at KuPS in Europe. A team playing like that has to defend for long spells at a ground where chances are scarce. Four of the last five meetings finished 0-1, 0-1, 0-2 and 1-0, so two goals or fewer has been the norm. A 1-0 home win is the most likely score, and that lands this pick. Rovers are still the better team on paper. They have won 12 of the last 20 meetings and still lead the table by six points. These two also served up a 3-2 in the cup three weeks ago. We are with the home side anyway.

💬 Valencia are in a mess. They sit bottom of La Liga with one point from four games and a minus 8 goal difference, and that includes a 0-5 home loss to Barcelona. Seven players are ruled out. That is the main reason we are with Sevilla. Sevilla are no one's idea of a great team, but they do enough. They have won four of their six home games, scoring more than a goal a game and letting in just over a goal. They do not need much to win a game like this. Valencia score barely more than a goal a game and let in almost 2. Their back line is patched together, with Copete, Diakhaby and Foulquier all out, and striker Sadiq is missing too. That is a lot of missing bodies at both ends of the pitch. These games are always tight. The last five meetings produced 2, 2, 1, 2 and 0 goals, so nobody should expect a big score. A 1-0 Sevilla win is the most likely result, and that is enough for this pick. Sevilla have their own problems. Sangante is suspended after a red card and Vargas is out with a knee injury, and these two have tied 8 of their last 20 meetings. We still back Sevilla to find the one goal that wins it.