Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: Villa have not scored a Premier League goal this season, and that is the heart of this one. They lost 0-4 at Brighton, lost 0-1 to Arsenal and tied 0-0 at Hull. They sit 17th with a goal difference of -5. Now they come into this four days after a Champions League trip to Bruges, with their midfield stripped by injury and suspension. Onana is out with a knee injury, Goretzka is not back until October, Joao Gomes is suspended, and Bailey and Abraham are unavailable too. Forest tie more games than almost anyone. They have tied four of their last eleven games, and they have scored twice in three league games this season, one of those a 0-0 with Tottenham. Their games average under 3 goals in total, and only 5 of their last 11 had 3 or more. They also arrive with a full week of rest, so expect them to be patient and hard to break down. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, with Villa finally getting on the board but not finding a second. The risk is the history. These two have met 16 times, averaging more than 3 goals, and Villa won 4-0 in May. Villa also won 3-2 at Bruges in midweek, so the goals are in there when a game opens up. We still expect a tight, low scoring afternoon.