Tips — Saturday, 5 September 2026

💬 Mito have flattered themselves so far, and Avispa are better than the table shows. Mito have scored 8 goals in three games from chances worth under 2 a game. They have let in only 4 from chances worth just over 2. That kind of luck does not hold for long. Away from home they are a different team, with 1 win in 8 trips, a goal a game scored and more than 2 let in. Avispa sit 18th in the relegation place with one win in their last five league games, and that is a fair worry. But their home games are tight and controlled, with just over a goal at each end across nine matches. The last 17 meetings between these two split 5 wins each with 7 ties, and they averaged just over 2 goals. Expect a slow, careful afternoon at Best Denki with very little space. A 1-0 home win is the likeliest score, and that is enough. The obvious danger is a tie, and it is a real one. Avispa have tied 7 of their last 18 games, and 7 of the 17 meetings with Mito finished level. Mito have lost only one of their last five as well. We are still with the home side to find the goal that decides it.

💬 Nürnberg are hard to beat away from home, and that is what this pick rests on. They have lost only 1 of their last 8 road games and tied 5 of them. They also lead the division with 9 points from three games and 11 goals scored, beating Bielefeld 4-1, Furth 4-2 and Dresden 3-0. They score almost 2 goals a game and have lost by 2 or more only once in their last 15. Kiel are 17th but they are better than that. They have won 6 of their last 13, and they tied 2-2 with St Pauli and 2-2 at Darmstadt. They are making close to 2 goals worth of chances a game, so they will not sit back and be beaten up. Both defences leak, and that is why the last 14 meetings averaged just over 3 goals. A 2-2 tie is the likeliest score, and Nürnberg avoiding defeat is exactly the shape we want. The honest worry is what sits under Nürnberg's fast start. They have given up more chances than they have made, so 9 points from three flatters them. If Kiel take their chances at home, they can win this game. We are still happy to back Nürnberg to come away without a loss.

💬 Wolfsburg do not blow teams away, and in front of their own crowd they barely score at all. They have gone seven home games without a win, and in those games they score under a goal a game. That run includes a 0-0 with Kaiserslautern this season. Wolfsburg have also won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 16 games. The bigger picture is much kinder to them. They sit third in the 2. Bundesliga on seven points from three games with a +4 goal difference, and they won 5-2 at Karlsruhe last time out. Cottbus are 14th on three points, but they are not a soft touch going forward. They score almost 2 goals a game, and they have won 7 of their last 13. They have also lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 13 games. Both teams have had 7 days off, so neither has tired legs as an excuse. A 2-1 Wolfsburg win is the likely score here, and that keeps Cottbus close enough for this to land. The warning is a real one. Cottbus have been picked apart three games running, losing 3-4 to Fuerth, 0-3 at Bielefeld and 0-2 to Augsburg in the cup. If that version of them turns up, Wolfsburg's home problems will not save this. We still want Cottbus with the goals start.

💬 Bournemouth are the hardest team in the league to beat right now. They have lost once in their last fifteen games, and nine of those games were tied. Away from home they have won 4, tied 3 and lost 1 of eight games, letting in less than a goal a game. That is a side built to strangle an afternoon rather than win it in style. Newcastle arrive on a high after taking four points from two league games. Look closer and they are getting more out of those games than their play deserves. They are also without Dan Burn, Joelinton and William Osula, with Tino Livramento a doubt. That is a lot of size and running taken out of one team. The history backs a tight game too. The last 18 meetings have gone 5 wins each with 8 ties, and Bournemouth won 2-1 at St James' Park in April 2026. Both sides have had 7 days off. A 1-1 is the likely score, and a point for Bournemouth is exactly what this pick is built on. The warning is Newcastle in front of goal. They have scored at least twice in each of their last three games, and they average more than 2 goals a game at home. A loud St James' Park can drag a late goal out of a quiet game. Bournemouth are still the side we want.

💬 These two nearly always play out a tight, low scoring game. The last five meetings finished 2-2, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0 and 0-0. Across the last 20 meetings they have averaged 2 goals in total. Fiorentina come into this desperate and blunt. They sit 19th with no points from two games, beaten 0-4 at Roma and 0-3 at home by Frosinone. They score under a goal a game, the weakest attack on show. Torino are no better on their travels. They have won once in seven away games and score less than a goal a game on the road. They are also missing Pietro Pellegri and Franco Israel, with Cesare Casadei a doubt. Torino played a cup tie on 1 September and arrive on four days' rest to Fiorentina's seven. Tired legs and a deep Torino defence point to a slow, nervy afternoon. Fiorentina will start on the front foot at the Franchi, but their attack has produced nothing in two league games. A 1-1 is the likely score, and two goals keeps this pick comfortable. The risk is that Torino games are not always quiet. They have had 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 16 games, and one early goal would force Fiorentina to throw men forward. Everything else about this matchup says low scoring, and that is where we stand.

💬 Dortmund do their damage without leaving the back door wide open. They have won 10 of their last 15 games and let in just over a goal a game. On the road they have won 5 and lost 2 of seven games, scoring just over 2 goals a game. They also come in on four days' rest to Hoffenheim's seven, and tired legs tend to slow a game down. Hoffenheim will not let this be a dull one. They score almost 2 goals a game and beat Dortmund 2-1 on this ground in April 2026. They let in almost 2 goals a game as well, so they play open football rather than sitting deep. Dortmund's back line is patched up. Nico Schlotterbeck is out with an ankle problem, Sergio Inacio is suspended, and Emre Can and Lerma are missing too. That is why Hoffenheim should get on the scoresheet at some point. A 1-2 Dortmund win is the likely score, and three goals sits on the right side of this pick. The honest worry is what these two normally serve up. Their last 20 meetings have averaged just over 3 goals a game, and 11 of Hoffenheim's last 14 games had 3 or more goals. If this turns into the end to end game they usually produce, the bet is in trouble. We still expect Dortmund to control it.

💬 Leverkusen are in no shape to hammer anyone right now. They lost 3-2 away at promoted Elversberg on the opening weekend and sit 14th with no points. Their attack has been stripped back too. Nathan Tella, Guela Doue, Culbreath and Eichhorn are all out, with Ben Seghir and Terrier doubtful. Big wins were rare even before that. Leverkusen have won by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 12 games. Union Berlin arrive in decent form. They have not lost in their last five games, and they tied the last one 3-3 with Frankfurt. They score almost 2 goals a game, so they carry a threat from set pieces and on the break. The history here points to a close game as well. The last five meetings finished 0-1, 2-0, 0-0, 2-1 and 1-0, so nobody has been beaten badly in this one for years. Both sides have had 7 days off. A 2-1 Leverkusen win is the likely score, and Union staying within a goal is what this pick is built on. The caution is Union's back line. They are missing centre backs Marvin Friedrich and Markgraf plus Nsoki, and goalkeeper Frederik Ronnow is a doubt. They let in more than 2 goals a game on the road, so an angry Leverkusen side could still run away with this. We are happy to take Union with the start.

💬 Leipzig have owned this game for years. They have won 13 of the last 20 meetings with Bremen, and they won the last two of them 1-2 and 0-2. Bremen come into this bruised. They have won 5, tied 1 and lost 8 of their last 14 games. They were beaten 4-1 at Freiburg last time out, and they barely created a chance. They are also without five players, including forwards Justin Njinmah and Keke Topp. At home Bremen have won 2 and lost 4 of their last 6, letting in more than a goal a game there. Leipzig have won 10 of their last 14 and score more than 2 goals a game. They are not flawless on the road, where they have 4 wins and 3 losses and let in more than a goal a game. They still have far more quality than a patched up Bremen side, and they have a full week of rest behind them. A 1-2 to Leipzig is the likely score, and a one goal win lands this. The risk is a wounded Bremen digging in at home. Leipzig are also without Christoph Baumgartner, with two more doubtful, so a tight tie is not far fetched. Leipzig are still the pick.

💬 Freiburg are the better side here, and right now they are scoring for fun. They have put three or more goals past their last four opponents, including a 4-1 win over Werder Bremen and a 5-1 at Fortuna Duesseldorf. Paderborn are newly promoted, and their record of 8 wins, 7 ties and 2 losses in 17 games came almost all in the second tier. Their only top flight game this season was a 0-0 at Mainz, and they barely threatened in it. They do score almost 2 goals a game, so they are no soft touch at home. Freiburg have won 10 of their last 17 and score more than 2 goals a game. They sit 2nd in the table after the opening round, with Paderborn down in 12th. Paderborn are also missing five players, including Sven Michel and Felix Goetze. A 1-2 to Freiburg is the likely score, and a narrow away win is exactly what this pick is built on. The honest worry is Freiburg on the road. They have 4 wins and 4 losses away from home with no ties, and they let in more than a goal a game on their travels. These two have also split the last 7 meetings, 3 wins each with a tie. Freiburg are still the side we want.

💬 Pittodrie is the reason this pick is on. Aberdeen have won 7 of their last 9 games there, and they let in under a goal a game at home. Kilmarnock arrive bottom of the league with 0 points from 4 games. They have lost four league games in a row, they have let in 14 goals doing it, and their goal difference is minus 10. They have also lost each of their last five visits to Pittodrie. Aberdeen have won 9, tied 1 and lost 6 of their last 16 games overall, letting in just over a goal a game. They lead the last 20 meetings with Kilmarnock 12 wins to 6. A 2-0 home win is the likely score, and that clears this pick comfortably. Now the honest part. Aberdeen have scored only twice in their last four league games, and they are without striker Kusini Yengi along with Brad Lyons, Emmanuel Gyamfi and Kristers Tobers. Both teams also played three days ago, so tired legs could make this a scrappy night. Aberdeen have to win this game, and a nervy 1-1 is well within range. They have still been far too strong at home for a team this far off the pace.

💬 Brentford do not win big. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 18 games, and they have tied 10 of those 18. At their own ground they have 2 wins, 5 ties and 1 loss, so this is a team that grinds out narrow results. They are playing well right now, and they beat Tottenham 3-0 at home, but that pattern is hard to ignore. Sunderland are a strange team. They score more than a goal a game on the road and under a goal a game at their own ground, so the trip suits them. Away from home they have won 4, tied 2 and lost 4. More to the point, they have lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 17 games. Brentford are also without Milambo and van den Berg. A 2-1 Brentford win is the likely score, and that is the honest problem here. A one goal home win does not get this pick home in full, so what we want is Sunderland to take a point. Their away record says that is well in play. The warning is that Brentford can turn a tight game into a comfortable one, as Tottenham found out. We are still happy to take Sunderland with the goals start.

💬 Brighton are down to the bare bones. They have eight players ruled out, including Mitoma, Minteh and Ferguson, with Rutter also a doubt. That is most of their attack gone in one go. Leeds are the last team you want to face in that state. They have not lost in five games, winning four of them, and they let in a goal a game across their last 17. They have also lost by 2 or more goals only once in those 17 games, so they do not get run over. Brighton are still a strong side. They have won 9 of their last 16 and they score almost 2 goals a game. Leeds beat them 1-0 in the last meeting between the two, and Leeds have won 8 and lost only 3 of their last 17. Both teams have had six days off. A 1-1 is the likely score, and a tie is enough for this pick. The risk sits with Brighton at home. They have won 6 of their last 8 at the Amex and score more than 2 goals a game there. They also put four past Aston Villa at the Amex and scored three away at Chelsea in their last two league games. Leeds are still the side we want here.

💬 Palace have owned this game. In the last 16 meetings they have 7 wins, 6 ties and 3 losses, and Fulham have not beaten them in five attempts. Palace also won the most recent meeting 2-1 in August. Fulham have won 4, tied 3 and lost 7 of their last 14 games, and they score less than a goal a game. Craven Cottage is the better part of their season. They have won four of their eight home games there and let in less than a goal a game. Palace are the harder side to trust away from home. They have won one of eight away trips, scoring less than a goal a game and letting in 2. Mateta and Sarr are both out, and they are the two forwards who carry the attack. So this looks like a slow London derby with very few clear chances. Fulham's games have averaged almost 2 goals in total, and one moment could decide this one. A 1-0 Fulham win is the most likely single score, and that beats this bet. Palace need to come away with at least a tie. The worry is real, because Palace have lost by 2 or more in 6 of their last 16 games. But 6 of the last 16 meetings ended level, and a tight game suits us. Palace handle this one better than the table suggests, and we will take the head start with them.

💬 City win these games by taking control, not by piling on goals. Their home record is 6 wins and 2 losses from eight games, with just over 2 goals scored a game and less than a goal let in. City have won 11, tied 3 and lost 3 of their last 17, and 14 of those 17 games finished with three goals or fewer. Coventry come in with a record that flatters them. They have won 11 of their own last 17 and score just over 2 goals a game. Nearly all of that came in the second tier, with wins like 4-0 over Watford and 5-1 over Portsmouth. In the Premier League they have lost both games without scoring, 0-1 at home to Hull City and 0-3 at Arsenal. Woolfenden and Kesler-Hayden are both out, so the back line is thinner than it should be. Coventry will sit deep and keep the game slow, and that is how these games stay small. A 2-0 City win is the most likely score, and that keeps this bet alive. The honest risk is the Arsenal result happening again. City have won 4-1 at Palace and 3-0 twice in their last 17 games, so a big win is the way this goes wrong. We still want Coventry with the big head start.

💬 Spurs are in a bad way. They sit 20th with no points and no goals from two games, beaten 0-2 by Newcastle and 0-3 at Brentford. Forest have also had the better of this game lately. They have won four of the last five meetings, including 3-0 in March and 3-0 in December. Forest are not scoring freely themselves. Their last six home games have brought just over a goal a game for them and 1 goal a game against. That is a low bar, but it is enough against a side that has not scored yet. Spurs score less than a goal a game across six away games and let in more than one. Their attack is still patched together. Simons and Odobert are out long term, and Richarlison is out of the Premier League squad. Kulusevski, Maddison and Savio are back in contention, but none of them is a certain starter. So expect a cagey game with few clear chances, decided by a single moment. A 1-0 Forest win is the most likely score, and this bet only needs Forest to avoid defeat. The honest worry is Forest's own form. They have not won any of their last five, with two ties and three losses, and a Spurs reaction has to come at some point. We are still with Forest here.

💬 Lens are a different team at Bollaert-Delelis, and that is why we are with them. They have won 8 of their last 10 games there and lost only 1. At home they score more than 2 goals a game and let in a goal a game. Across all games they have won 10 of their last 16, and 7 of those 16 finished with a win by 2 or more goals. Lorient arrive 14th with a single point from two games. They lost 1-2 at home to Troyes last time out. They score just over a goal a game and let in just over a goal a game, so they carry little threat on the road. Expect Lens to get in front early and run the game from there. Our read is a 2-1 Lens win. The safest version of this pick is Lens adding a third and winning by 2 or more. There are two warnings worth hearing. Lorient are hard to beat by a distance, and they have lost by 2 or more goals only twice in their last 14 games. Lens are also without five players, including defenders Gradit and Nawrocki, so Lorient should get on the board. We still want Lens, because this form and this ground point to a clear home win.

💬 Napoli almost never get beaten badly, and that is the heart of this pick. They have lost by 2 or more goals only once in their last 15 games. They have won 9 of those 15 and let in less than a goal a game. This is a side built to keep games tight. Inter are the stronger team here. They have lost only 1 of their last 15 games. At home they are unbeaten, scoring more than 2 goals a game and letting in a goal a game. Inter have won by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 15, so they can pull clear of teams. Napoli are the sort of opponent who stops that. The last 20 meetings have gone 8 wins to Inter, 8 ties and 4 to Napoli, and those games have produced just over 2 goals a game. Napoli do have a problem at the back. Buongiorno and Marianucci are out and McTominay is missing in midfield, so Rrahmani and Rafa Marin look like the centre back pair. Inter have no injury worries at all. Our read is a 2-1 Inter win, which is the sort of tight night this pick is built for, and we want Napoli closer still. Napoli staying in the game is the whole ask, and this matchup says they can.

💬 Hull do not get beaten by big margins, and right now they are barely getting beaten at all. They have not lost by 2 or more goals in any of their last 14 games. They have won 6 and tied 6 in that run and let in less than a goal a game. At the MKM Stadium they have not lost in seven, with 4 wins and 3 ties. Most of that run came in the division below. They did beat Manchester United there last month. Villa are in real trouble. They sit 19th with no points and no goals, after losing 1-0 to Arsenal and 4-0 at Brighton. They score almost 2 goals a game across their last 14, so the players are there, but nothing is going in. Onana is out and Joao Gomes is suspended, which leaves the midfield short. These two are usually close. Hull have won 1, tied 4 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings, and those games have produced just over 2 goals a game. Expect a tight, low scoring night. Hull sit deep, spring one counter and protect it. A 1-0 Hull win is our read, and that gets this pick home on its own. Hull do have five players out, including goalkeeper Butland. Villa are also better than 19th place suggests, and two league games is not much to judge them on. We are still on Hull to come out of this without losing.

💬 Braga are simply the better team here, and Alverca have not looked like stopping anyone. Alverca sit 16th, are still looking for a first league win, and have taken two points from their opening four games. They have won 3, tied 4 and lost 6 of their last 13. They score just over a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. Braga have lost only 2 of their last 14 and let in under a goal a game. They kept clean sheets against Vitoria SC, Austria Vienna and Dinamo Minsk in recent weeks. Alverca are short of bodies too. Sabit Abdulai and Julian Martinez are out with knee injuries, and right back Nabil Touaizi is a doubt after limping off early last time. The two clubs have met twice and Braga won both. Braga are not blowing teams away at the moment, so a 1-0 win for the visitors looks like the most likely score. Expect them to keep the ball, stay solid at the back, and win it with a set piece or one clean moment of quality. The worry is Braga on the road. They have won only 1 of their 7 away games and tied 4 of them, and Alverca are stubborn at their own ground. We still think the gap in quality is too big, and Braga come out on top.

💬 Two sides who have started badly meet level on points, and neither looks capable of winning this comfortably. Dresden and Bochum both have 3 points from 3 games, with Bochum on a goal difference of minus one and Dresden on minus four. Dresden score just over 2 goals a game, but they have won 7 and lost 6 of their last 14, so they run hot and cold. Their home record of 5 wins and 1 loss also flatters them. They have been giving up plenty of chances lately and hanging on rather than shutting teams out. Bochum have taken all of their league points on the road. They won 1-0 at Braunschweig and lost both of their home games. They added a 2-1 cup win at Greuther Furth, and they are happy to sit deep and hit teams on the break. They score just over a goal a game and let in about the same, so their games stay close. Dresden's 3-5 loss at Heidenheim also looks worse than it was. They were down to ten men and still led 2-1 with under 15 minutes left. Put it together and a scrappy 1-1 is the most likely score, which is the game we want. The catch is history. Dresden have won the last two meetings 2-0 and 2-1, and they have lost only once in six at home. We still think Bochum are well placed to stay with them here.

💬 Roma are flying and Atalanta are winning without playing well. Roma have won five games in a row and the last two both finished 4-0. At the Olimpico they have won 5 of 7, scoring more than 2 goals a game and letting in under a goal. Across their last 15 games they have won by 2 or more seven times. Atalanta are the opposite story. They score just over a goal a game across their last 16 and have won by 2 or more only once in that run. Their recent wins have been 1-0s and 2-1s with very little behind them. They are also without centre back Isak Hien and Kamaldeen Sulemana, which is a problem against a Roma attack in this mood. Expect Atalanta to hold out for an hour before Roma find a way through and add a second, so a 2-0 home win is the likely score. History is the reason for some caution. Atalanta have won 11 of the last 20 meetings, and Roma have not beaten them in the last five. Roma are also missing Lorenzo Pellegrini. This Roma team looks nothing like the one that kept losing this game, and we are happy to back them to win it.

💬 These two hardly ever produce goals when they meet. Their last 20 meetings have averaged under 2 goals a game, and the last five finished 0-2, 1-0, 0-1, 0-2 and 0-1. Le Havre are a tie machine. They have won 1, tied 7 and lost 5 of their last 13, and only 2 of those 13 games had 3 or more goals. They score just a goal a game, they have not won at home all season, and they have created next to nothing in recent weeks. Brest are just as blunt on their travels. They have won 1 of their 7 away games and score less than a goal a game on the road. Both squads are missing bodies too. Le Havre are without Zagadou, Toure, Mambimbi and Argney, and Brest lose centre back Chardonnet. Neither attack looks likely to pull the other apart. A cagey 1-1 is the most likely score, and that is exactly the game we want. Two honest warnings. Brest's last two games both finished 2-2, so their attack is working better than their away record suggests. Le Havre also tied 4-4 at home with Metz not long ago, so this side can be part of a mess. The low scoring read is still the right one here.

💬 Nice are in poor shape and this is a good time to face them. They sit 17th, score under a goal a game, and did not score in either of their last two games. They tied 0-0 with Lorient and lost 0-3 at Paris FC. Nice are also missing four players, including Sanson and Abergel from midfield and centre back Bombito. At home they are a tie machine, with 1 win, 4 ties and 1 loss in six games there. Le Mans arrive with belief. They have lost only 1 of their last 13 games and score almost 2 goals a game. They have scored twice in each of their two top flight games so far. They lost 2-3 at Rennes and tied 2-2 with Brest, so the attack has carried up a division. A blunt Nice side against a team that keeps scoring points to a tight, low quality game, and a 1-1 tie is the most likely score. That is the game we want. The doubt is the step up in level. Le Mans built that record in the second tier against sides like Bastia, Grenoble and Pau. They have also been outplayed for long spells in both of their top flight games. They are also without Sidibe through suspension, so the lineup is hard to call. We still like Le Mans to stay close here.

💬 St Mirren turn their home games into a grind, and that is the heart of the case here. Their nine home games have produced just over a goal at each end, and less than a third of their matches have had four or more goals. They sit second and unbeaten in the league with 10 points from four games, so they will not throw bodies forward chasing this. They are short up front too. Jonah Ayunga is out until January, and Liam Donnelly, Malik Dijksteel and Keanu Baccus are all missing. Celtic are the class of this division. They have won 15 of their last 16 and score almost 3 goals a game. These two have produced some very quiet games lately. Three of the last five meetings finished with a single goal in them, all 0-1 to Celtic. Expect Celtic to lead early, control the middle of the game, and take few risks once in front. A 1-2 Celtic win is the likeliest score, and three goals is enough for this to land. The danger is real though. Celtic's away games have averaged more than 4 goals, with almost 3 scored and more than a goal let in per trip. If St Mirren level it, Celtic have the players to go and get two more. We still expect the tight, low scoring game the hosts want.

💬 Villarreal have been far better than their two points suggest, and this is their first game at home. All three league games so far were away trips. They are creating close to 2 goals worth of chances a game, which is far more than their points show. They score almost 2 goals a game, and 10 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. Deportivo have made a strong start back in the top flight and they carry a real threat on the break. They have lost only 1 of their last 13. But they arrive without four senior players. Alex Altimira is suspended after a red card, Adama Traore has a muscle problem, and Nico Carrillo and Marc Casado are also out. That is a lot of quality missing from a side who will have to defend for long spells. Villarreal will push high and force Deportivo back, and gaps open when a team defends deep for 90 minutes. A 2-1 home win looks the likeliest score, and three goals lands this. The warning is that Deportivo keep their games quiet. Their matches have averaged more than 2 goals and they let in less than a goal a game. The last ten meetings between these two averaged only 2 goals. We still think the more open game is coming.

💬 Nacional keep their games quiet, and that is the strongest reason to side with the lower score. Only 4 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals, and their matches average just over 2 goals. On the road they score less than a goal a game and let in a little more than one. They have won once in their last seven away trips, so the plan is to sit in and stay in the game as long as they can. Sporting are second with 10 points from four games and score more than 2 goals a game. They rarely need to chase. They have never lost to Nacional in twenty meetings, and the pattern is nearly always the same. Sporting take the lead early, then manage the game rather than hunt for more. Those twenty meetings averaged under 3 goals, which is low for such a one sided record. A 2-0 home win is the likeliest score, and a game like that is well clear of trouble. The one worry is Sporting's recent form in front of goal. Their last four games all finished with four or more goals, including 4-0 and 3-2 wins. Nacional have also been opened up for close to 2 goals worth of chances a game lately. We still expect Sporting to win this without a shootout.