Tips — Friday, 4 September 2026

💬 Bielefeld play in open games, and that is the case for this pick. 10 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals, and their games average more than 3 goals in total. At home they have been strong and busy. They have won 3 and tied 3 in 6 home games without losing, scoring more than 2 goals a game and letting in a goal a game. St. Pauli are struggling, but they do not sit back. They are still looking for a first win in a run of 14, with 5 ties and 9 losses, and they sit 16th in the relegation play-off spot. Their trouble comes at both ends. They score less than a goal a game and let in almost 2, and 7 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. Their record also looks worse than the team really is. It mixes second tier games with top flight matches against Bayern, Leipzig and Wolfsburg. So expect St. Pauli to have a go and to get caught out at the back. A 2-1 to Bielefeld is the likely finish. That is three goals, so this one wants the game to stay open and find a fourth. The worry is the away version of St. Pauli. On the road they barely score, and the last 14 meetings between these clubs averaged just over 2 goals. We still want the busier game.

💬 Hannover do not win big, and that is the heart of this pick. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 16 games. At home they are weaker still. Their home record reads 1 win, 5 ties and 2 losses, and there they score just over a goal a game and let in more than one. Their headline scoring is also lifted by a 9-1 cup win over amateur side Hemelingen, which tells us nothing about a day like this. Karlsruhe are not a soft touch. They have won 5 and tied 3 of their last 14 games, and they have lost by 2 or more in just 4 of them. They tend to stay in games rather than get pulled apart. The honest part is their away form. Karlsruhe have won once in six on the road and score less than a goal a game on their travels. A 2-1 to Hannover is the likely finish, and that leaves this short of a clean win. What we want is Karlsruhe within a goal, and a tie or better lands it properly. Hannover tie a lot of their home games, so that is a fair ask. The warning is recent history. Hannover won the last two meetings 3-1 and 3-0, and Karlsruhe just lost 2-5 at home to Wolfsburg. We still think Karlsruhe keep this close.

💬 Aalesund cannot win at home, and that is the heart of this pick. They have won just one of their nine home games, tying six of them. Both these sides sit in the bottom two, so this is a scrap between the two teams in the most trouble. Aalesund let in more than 2 goals a game at their own ground. Their last five home games finished 5-5, 2-6, 1-1, 2-2 and 2-2. They score goals and they give plenty back. Start have won 4, tied 4 and lost 10 of their last 18 games, so nobody is calling them good. Their recent run is better though, with three wins in their last five. They have been playing better than 16th place suggests. Aalesund are also missing four players, including Johannsson through suspension. That is a lot for a side who already tie most weeks at home. A 2-2 is the likely finish here. Neither team defends well and neither team closes a game out. That is the kind of afternoon we want from Start. The trip is the worry. Start have lost six of their nine away games and let in more than 2 goals on the road. If Aalesund's forwards have a good night, this gets away from them. We still like Start to come away with something.

💬 Bodo/Glimt turn games into shootouts. 15 of their last 18 games had 3 or more goals, and they score 3 goals a game on the road. They sit top of the league on 44 points, with a goal difference of +33 and five straight wins. Fredrikstad are the reason this is not simple. They have won four of their last five, and three of those were 1-0s. Their own ground has been quiet too, letting in 1 goal a game across seven home games. So the case leans on the leaders. Bodo/Glimt are unbeaten on the road with six wins and two ties. They have the players to turn a tight game into a 3-1, and Fredrikstad have lost six of the last seven meetings between these two. Chasing this side means pushing men forward and getting caught. We will be straight about the read. A 1-2 to Bodo/Glimt is the most likely score, and that leaves us one goal short. We want at least four goals here, so either the leaders pull away or Fredrikstad score twice. The head to head is the real warning. Those last seven meetings averaged under 3 goals. Bodo/Glimt also travel with six players out, which could take some sting out of them. We still want the busy game.

💬 Lyon win games, but they rarely win them by much. They have beaten a side by 2 or more goals just 4 times in their last 14 games. That is the case for Auxerre keeping this close. Lyon have kept one clean sheet in their last six home games. Those nights finished 1-1, 1-2, 3-0, 0-4, 4-2 and 3-2, so their own goal gets touched most weeks. They also tied 1-1 with Le Havre last time out, and they went out of the Champions League playoff to Fenerbahce nine days ago. Auxerre are the worry, no question. They are bottom of Ligue 1 with no points from two games and a goal difference of -5. They have let in eight goals in those two games, losing 1-3 to Angers and 2-5 at Lens. Six players are out, including three centre backs. Even so, Auxerre have lost by 2 or more only twice in their last 13 games. These two also meet in tight games. Lyon have won 5 of the last 10 meetings and Auxerre have won 2, and Lyon needed a 3-2 to get past them in April. A 2-1 Lyon win is the likely script, and that keeps Auxerre within a goal. If Lyon's forwards click against a patched up back line, this can get ugly quickly. We still expect Auxerre to stay close.

💬 Zwolle have owned this game. They have not lost any of the last five meetings, winning three and tying two. Those games finished 1-1, 0-1, 1-1, 0-1 and 0-2, so Sparta have barely laid a glove on them. Sparta are not a side to fear at home either. They have won one of their seven home games, with three ties and three losses. Across their last 14 games they have won twice, and they score just over 1 goal a game. Zwolle are no better, and that is the point. They are 14th on three points, one behind Sparta, and they also score just over 1 goal a game. Two blunt attacks usually means a game that stays level for long stretches. The head to head says the same. The last 16 meetings averaged under 3 goals, and fewer than half of them had 3 goals or more. Zwolle travel without Namli and Burger, but neither man changes the shape of this. A 1-1 is the likely finish, and that is exactly what we want from Zwolle. The risk sits in their travelling record. They have lost five of their eight away games and let in almost 3 goals a trip. If Sparta finally click at home, this goes wrong fast. We are happy to side with Zwolle anyway.

💬 Leganes have not lost this season. They sit third in the table and have let in just one goal in three league games. That back line keeps them in games they do not run. Las Palmas are strong at their own ground. They have won five of their seven home games and let in less than a goal a game there. They were beaten 2-5 at Girona last time out though, so they are not airtight right now. Leganes barely score. They manage less than a goal a game, and even less on the road. Their last three games finished 1-0 at Oviedo, 1-0 at home to Eldense and 1-1 at Girona. They win and tie in the tightest way there is, and they keep taking points doing it. That tells you how this one goes. These two have averaged just over 2 goals across their last 14 meetings, and only about a third of those had 3 goals or more. One goal decides most of them. We will be honest about the read. A 1-0 to Las Palmas is the single most likely score, so Leganes need to take something from the game instead. They have already done that twice on the road this season. The gap is that Leganes create so little, and one Las Palmas goal could be enough to beat us. We are backing Leganes to stay unbeaten.

💬 Köln arrive without their two best attackers. Said El Mala and Thijs Dallinga both stayed at home ill, and Dallinga came off the bench to score twice in their opening win over Hoffenheim. Neither man trained on Wednesday or Thursday. Stuttgart are a different team at the MHPArena. They have won four of their last six there and let in less than a goal a game at home. The 1-5 at Bayern on the opening weekend looks bad, but that was one trip to Bayern. Köln struggle away from their own ground. They have won one of their last eight road games, with four ties, and they score just over 1 goal a game on those trips. Take out the two men who won them the opening game, and it is hard to see where the goals come from. Stuttgart have won the last two meetings 3-1 and 2-1. They also lead the last 20 meetings with 11 wins to Köln's 4. Here is the honest part. A 2-1 Stuttgart win is the most likely score, and we want them to win by more than one. Stuttgart have six players out themselves, including their keeper Seimen, and Köln have tied half their away games. We still want Stuttgart to win this clearly.

💬 Como do not win big, and that is what holds this pick up. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 17 games. Genoa are in a bad way. They sit 16th in Serie A with no points and no goals from their opening two games, and a goal difference of -3. They score under a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. What saves them is that they stay in games. Genoa have lost by 2 or more in only 5 of their last 15. Como are the better side right now. They are unbeaten in five, won 2-1 at Napoli on 30 August, and their away record reads 6 wins, 3 ties and 2 losses. Moise Kean is expected to start on the bench for them, and Jordan Addai is out injured. These two do not produce much together. Four of the last six meetings ended tied, and those games averaged just over 2 goals. A 0-1 to Como is the most likely single score, and that leaves us just short. Genoa need a goal, and a tie would do the job well. The warning is clear. Como won 2-0 at this ground in April, and Genoa still have not scored in Serie A this season. We still think Genoa keep this one close.

💬 Viking are the better team, but they do not often win by a lot. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 7 of their last 19 games. Sandefjord have lost by 2 or more in just 4 of their last 19, so heavy defeats are not their habit. Sandefjord are poor going forward at home. They have scored six goals in nine home league games, and they did not score at all against Brann last time out. Their home record reads 2 wins, 4 ties and 3 losses, letting in 1 goal a game. Quiet, low scoring nights are what happens here. Viking sit 2nd on 43 points, and they have won 15 of their last 19 games in all competitions, tying 2 and losing 2. On the road they have won 7, tied 2 and lost 2, letting in less than a goal a game. The one thing in our favour is their week. Viking played a cup tie at Brodd on 2 September and come here on two days' rest against five for Sandefjord. Berisha and Baertelsen are out, with three more doubtful. A 0-2 to Viking is the likely finish, and that beats this bet. Sandefjord need to stay within a goal, which means keeping it tight early and taking one of their few chances. The clear risk is history. Viking have won the last five meetings between these sides. Tired legs and a quiet home ground still make Sandefjord worth the head start.

💬 Both these teams play in games full of goals. 11 of Liverpool's last 18 games had 3 or more goals, and 9 of Ipswich's last 14 did the same. Liverpool are the bigger reason for that. They have won just one of their seven away games in this run, letting in more than 2 goals a trip. Their last two league games both finished 2-2. They keep creating chances and they keep giving them back. Five players are out for them, with Bradley, Chiesa, Ekitike, Gomez and Leoni all missing. That is a lot of help gone from a back line already letting in almost 2 goals a game. Ipswich will not sit deep either. They are unbeaten in six at home, winning four and tying two, and they beat Sunderland 2-1 on 22 August. They also lost 5-2 at Manchester United on 30 August, which shows how open they can get. Their games have more than 3 goals in them on average. The two previous meetings between these clubs averaged more than 3 goals as well. A 2-2 is the likely finish here, and four goals clears this bet with room to spare. The worry is Ipswich's record, built mostly against second tier sides like QPR, Norwich and Portsmouth. If Liverpool tighten up and win 1-0, this dies quietly. We are still backing the goals.

💬 PSG are strong at the Parc des Princes. They have won 6, tied 2 and lost 1 of their nine home games, scoring more than 2 goals a game there. They have also not lost by 2 or more in their last 18 games. The table is misleading right now. PSG have tied both their league games 2-2 and sit 12th on two points, but they are still the stronger side over any longer run. Nuno Mendes is suspended after a red card, so their defence has to change. Monaco have won both their games and sit 2nd. They score just over 2 goals a game and let in more than a goal a game. Balogun, Fati, Minamino and Salisu are all out. Their away games have been open, scoring more than 2 goals and letting in 2 a game. That plays into the hands of the better team. These two rarely have a quiet night. In the last 20 meetings PSG have won 10, tied 4 and lost 6, and those games averaged more than 3 goals. A 2-1 to PSG is the likely finish, and that leaves us short. We need a two goal win, so PSG have to take the extra chances this kind of game brings. The honest worry is that PSG have won by 2 or more in only 7 of their last 18 games. Rotation before the Champions League is possible too. We still want PSG to win this one well.

💬 Porto win these games without needing many goals. They have won five in a row, by 3-0, 2-0, 2-0, 2-0 and 1-0, and they did not let in a single goal across that run. At the Dragao they have won 8 and tied 3 of their 11 home games, with no losses. They score more than a goal a game there and have gone six games in a row without letting one in. Pepe and Zaidu Sanusi are missing, but that back line has been shut tight anyway. Moreirense do not look like the side to open it up. They score less than a goal a game and have managed 4 goals in their last 7 away trips. Their road record reads 1 win, 2 ties and 4 losses. A team that cannot score tends to sit deep and try to survive, which keeps the game slow. Porto's own numbers agree. Only 7 of their last 18 games had 3 or more goals, and their games average just over 2 goals in total. A 2-0 to Porto is the likely finish, and two goals clears this bet with room. The worry is the history between them. The last 20 meetings averaged just over 3 goals, and Porto have beaten Moreirense 3-0 and 3-1 in that run. If Porto get an early second and keep going, this can slip away. We still want the quiet game.

💬 Goals keep turning up at both ends here. New York City have not won in five games, and they let in a goal in every one of them. Their home games are busy, averaging more than 3 goals across nine at Yankee Stadium. They score almost 2 a game there and let in more than a goal. This is not a side about to shut up shop. Nashville arrive in the best form in the league. They sit top of the East on 52 points with a goal difference of +30, and they have won their last four, 4-0, 3-2, 1-0 and 4-1. They score almost 2 goals a game. New York City are also short of bodies. Eight players are ruled out, with Moralez, Talles Magno and Wolf among them, so the side that starts will be patched together. The wider record backs the busy game. 11 of New York City's last 20 games had 3 or more goals, and 11 of Nashville's last 20 did the same. A 1-2 to Nashville is the likely finish, and three goals clears this bet. The catch is Nashville away from home. On their travels they score just over a goal a game and let in less than one. Their road record reads 3 wins, 2 ties and 3 losses. A 1-0 either way kills this. We are still backing the goals.