Holstein Kiel vs 1. FC Nürnberg — Tips & Analysis

1. FC Nürnberg +0.25: Nürnberg are hard to beat away from home, and that is what this pick rests on. They have lost only 1 of their last 8 road games and tied 5 of them. They also lead the division with 9 points from three games and 11 goals scored, beating Bielefeld 4-1, Furth 4-2 and Dresden 3-0. They score almost 2 goals a game and have lost by 2 or more only once in their last 15. Kiel are 17th but they are better than that. They have won 6 of their last 13, and they tied 2-2 with St Pauli and 2-2 at Darmstadt. They are making close to 2 goals worth of chances a game, so they will not sit back and be beaten up. Both defences leak, and that is why the last 14 meetings averaged just over 3 goals. A 2-2 tie is the likeliest score, and Nürnberg avoiding defeat is exactly the shape we want. The honest worry is what sits under Nürnberg's fast start. They have given up more chances than they have made, so 9 points from three flatters them. If Kiel take their chances at home, they can win this game. We are still happy to back Nürnberg to come away without a loss.