Sporting CP vs Nacional — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.5: Nacional keep their games quiet, and that is the strongest reason to side with the lower score. Only 4 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals, and their matches average just over 2 goals. On the road they score less than a goal a game and let in a little more than one. They have won once in their last seven away trips, so the plan is to sit in and stay in the game as long as they can. Sporting are second with 10 points from four games and score more than 2 goals a game. They rarely need to chase. They have never lost to Nacional in twenty meetings, and the pattern is nearly always the same. Sporting take the lead early, then manage the game rather than hunt for more. Those twenty meetings averaged under 3 goals, which is low for such a one sided record. A 2-0 home win is the likeliest score, and a game like that is well clear of trouble. The one worry is Sporting's recent form in front of goal. Their last four games all finished with four or more goals, including 4-0 and 3-2 wins. Nacional have also been opened up for close to 2 goals worth of chances a game lately. We still expect Sporting to win this without a shootout.