Manchester City vs Coventry — Tips & Analysis

Coventry +2.5: City win these games by taking control, not by piling on goals. Their home record is 6 wins and 2 losses from eight games, with just over 2 goals scored a game and less than a goal let in. City have won 11, tied 3 and lost 3 of their last 17, and 14 of those 17 games finished with three goals or fewer. Coventry come in with a record that flatters them. They have won 11 of their own last 17 and score just over 2 goals a game. Nearly all of that came in the second tier, with wins like 4-0 over Watford and 5-1 over Portsmouth. In the Premier League they have lost both games without scoring, 0-1 at home to Hull City and 0-3 at Arsenal. Woolfenden and Kesler-Hayden are both out, so the back line is thinner than it should be. Coventry will sit deep and keep the game slow, and that is how these games stay small. A 2-0 City win is the most likely score, and that keeps this bet alive. The honest risk is the Arsenal result happening again. City have won 4-1 at Palace and 3-0 twice in their last 17 games, so a big win is the way this goes wrong. We still want Coventry with the big head start.