Tips — Sunday, 6 September 2026

💬 Birmingham keep games tight and they rarely get beaten badly. They have lost by 2 or more just once in their last 15 games. They have also tied six of those 15, including three of their last five. Their games have turned slow and low scoring. Only 6 of Birmingham's last 15 games had 3 or more goals, and they score just over a goal a game. Wolves are the better side on paper, but they are a different team away from home. They have won only two of eight away games and let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. Their back line is patched up as well. Bellegarde, Mosquera, Said and Trippier are all out, so a new look defense has to hold up here. Birmingham are short too. Bird, Gardner-Hickman and Leonard are all missing from midfield, so they will not suddenly start playing open football. That points to a crowded afternoon with few clear chances, decided by a set piece at either end. A 1-1 is the likeliest score, and an even game suits us well. The honest worry is the Wolves attack. They have won three of their last five, they score more than a goal a game, and they have won by 2 or more four times in 15. If they land an early goal, Birmingham's makeshift midfield may not have the legs to chase it. We still trust Birmingham to stay in this one.

💬 There is very little between these two teams. Fürth have the better of it at their own ground, where they have won four of eight home games. They score almost 2 goals a game at home. Heidenheim are the opposite away from home. They have won one of seven away games and they let in more than 2 goals a game on their travels. Heidenheim simply cannot stop trading goals. Their last four games produced 8, 7, 5 and 7 goals, including a 2-5 cup loss at a lower league club. Fürth are no better at the back, letting in more than a goal a game, so both sides should score. The history says these meetings stay close. Fürth have won 6 and tied 4 of the last 18 against Heidenheim. Team news is quiet, with Fürth missing Benjamin Zank and Heidenheim without both Contehs. A 2-2 is the likeliest score here, and an even game is exactly what we want. The risk is the better version of Heidenheim. They have won by 2 or more in 4 of their last 13 games, and this Fürth defense can be got at. Fürth lost 2-4 at home to Nürnberg not long ago. If that happens again, the game gets away from them quickly. We still like Fürth to stay level with a side they match up with well.

💬 Magdeburg turn into a different team on the road. They score more than 2 goals a game away from home, against just over a goal a game at their own ground. They also arrive on a run of three straight wins with three clean sheets. Hertha have started well themselves. They have won all three league games so far and sit second, and they score almost 2 goals a game. Their last five read three wins, a tie and one loss. The recent history between these clubs is wide open. Magdeburg have won three of the last six meetings, and those six games averaged 4 goals each. Hertha have let in a goal in four of their last five games, so a side that travels this well should get on the board. Now the honest part. The likeliest single score is a 2-1 Hertha win, and that is not enough for us. This pick needs Magdeburg to come away with at least a point. Their scoring on the road is the reason we think they can. Two clear warnings, and they matter here. Hertha opened with a 5-3 win at Braunschweig and a 4-1 at home to Heidenheim, so they can put goals on anyone. Magdeburg were also beaten 6-1 by Braunschweig only four league games ago, so those clean sheets are newer than they look. We are still with Magdeburg to make a proper game of this.

💬 These two do not do quiet games. The last ten meetings have averaged more than 3 goals, and Braunschweig won the last three 5-1, 3-0 and 3-2. Osnabrück are finding the second tier hard. They have one win from three league games, they sit 16th, and they have let in three more than they have scored. Their games run at just over 3 goals in total, and 7 of their last 13 had 3 or more. Braunschweig have been leaking badly too. They have lost four of their last five, letting in 5 and 4 in two of those defeats. They also won 6-1 away at Magdeburg last month, so goals go in at both ends with them. Tired legs help the case. Osnabrück played Bayern in the cup four days ago and lost 1-4. Braunschweig have had nine days off and should be the fresher side by a distance. Neither back line looks like keeping a clean sheet. A 1-2 to Braunschweig is the likeliest score, and that is the busy game we want. One honest warning. Braunschweig do have flat afternoons in them, with only 5 of their last 13 games hitting 3 or more goals. Two of their recent defeats came with just one goal let in. If Osnabrück sit deep after their cup night, this could stay tight. We are still on the side of goals.

💬 Troyes are very hard to beat at their own ground. They are unbeaten in six home games and they let in under a goal a game there. They have also not lost by 2 or more in any of their last 14 games. That is the heart of this pick. Their big scoring numbers come mostly from the second tier. In the top flight they have scored twice in two games, a 2-1 win at Lorient and a 0-0 with Paris FC. This is a team that defends first now. Strasbourg travel badly. They score only about a goal a game away from home and were beaten 0-4 at Marseille already this season. Their squad is thin for this trip as well. Panichelli, Godo and Oyedele are all out, and El Mourabet is suspended after a red card. Losing your main forward hurts a side that already struggles for goals on the road. These two know each other well and it is usually close. Troyes have lost only 2 of the last 8 meetings. A tight 1-0 to Troyes is the likeliest score, and a game with few chances suits us. The worry is Troyes' own team news. They are without Boura, Gozzi and Titi, and this squad has only just come up a division. Strasbourg have still won six of their last 14 games, so they can win this. We are happy to be with Troyes on their own ground.

💬 Manchester United travel here short of bodies in the middle and at the back. Baleba, Ugarte and de Ligt are all out and Mount is doubtful, which strips two central midfielders and a centre back from the team. Everton have been steady at their own ground. They have won three and tied one of their six home games, scoring 2 goals a game there and letting in more than a goal. United have been very quiet on their travels. Across seven away games they score just over a goal a game and let in under a goal a game, winning three of those trips. This is also a game that keeps tightening up. Six of the last 20 meetings finished level, and four of the last five were either tied or decided by a single goal. Everton have had 8 days since their last game and United 7, so tired legs are not an excuse for the home side. Put it together and a 1-1 is the likeliest score, in a physical afternoon with few clear chances. The honest worry is United's record in these meetings. They have won 11 of the last 20 against Everton, and 9 of their last 14 games overall. They also beat Ipswich 5-2 recently, so the attack can click even with players missing. We still expect Everton to stay in this one.

💬 This one is as even as a game gets. Hamburg and Mainz have met 18 times and the record is dead level, six wins each and six ties. Those games averaged more than 2 goals. Mainz look the stronger side, but the numbers dress them up. Their 2 goals a game lean on a 9-0 cup win at Krieschow, and their only league game so far was a 0-0 tie at home to Paderborn. They also travel light in the important areas. Nebel and Silas are out in attack, Martel and Kohr are missing from midfield, and Hollerbach is short of match fitness. That is four regulars gone from the spine of the team. Hamburg are hardly flying, but they have won three of their last five games. Both teams have had 8 days since their last game, so neither side arrives tired. A scrappy 1-1 is the most honest read, and an even game is exactly what we want here. The worry is Hamburg's own home form. They have won just one of their six home games, tying two and losing three. At their own ground they let in more than a goal a game. If the patched-up Mainz attack still functions, Hamburg have already shown they can be beaten at the Volksparkstadion. We still like Hamburg to hold their own here.

💬 Hearts do not often win big. They have won by 2 or more in just 4 of their last 16 games, and two of their last three wins over Dundee were 1-0. Their back line is thin right now as well. Kingsley, Halkett, Borchgrevink and Fagan-Walcott are all listed as unavailable, and Hearts let in almost 2 goals a game across those 16 matches. There is a tiredness angle too. Hearts play on three days' rest after Thursday's Edinburgh derby, one day fewer than Dundee, at the end of a run with two European ties in it. Dundee should get on the board. They score almost 2 goals a game and have won eight of their last 15, with 9 of those 15 games having 3 or more goals. Hearts' games have gone past 3 goals on average too. That points to an open, stretched game, and a 2-1 Hearts win is the likeliest score. A one goal game is what this pick is built around. The honest warnings are plain. Hearts have been excellent at Tynecastle, winning five and tying two of eight home games. They score more than 2 goals a game there. Dundee's best numbers are made at home, and on the road they have won only two of seven. One of those recent Hearts wins was a 4-0, which shows how fast this can run away. We still expect Dundee to keep it close.

💬 St Johnstone are hard to beat at McDiarmid Park. They are unbeaten in their last seven home games, five wins and two ties, and they let in under a goal a game there. They have also not lost by 2 or more in any of their last 17 games. Hibernian rarely hand out beatings anyway. They have won by 2 or more just twice in 17 games, and they have lost eight of those 17. They score just over a goal a game and let in more than a goal. Hibs arrive tired and short of defenders too. They played the Edinburgh derby three days ago, Iredale is suspended after a red card in it, and Obita is a doubt after limping off early. These clubs also produce quiet games against each other. Their last 20 meetings averaged just over 2 goals, and only 5 of St Johnstone's last 17 games had 3 or more goals. A 1-1 is the likeliest score, and an even game is what we want here. The honest catch is that the St Johnstone home run is padded. It includes League Cup ties against Morton and East Fife, and in the league they have four points from four games. Hibernian have not lost in four away games, winning 2-1 at Dundee and 2-1 at Rangers. We still trust St Johnstone to hold them.

💬 Burgos are the tidier team in this one, and a tie is enough for us. They have won 8 and lost only 2 of their last 15 games, with three wins in their last five. On the road they have won 4 of their 7 trips, scoring just over a goal a game and letting in under a goal. Oviedo have been the opposite kind of watch. They have scored once in three league games this season, and their ground has served up a 0-0 with Granada and a 0-1 loss to Leganes. Oviedo score under a goal a game across their last 15, and their games average under 2 goals in total. The two clubs are level on four points from three games, and level on goal difference as well. Their last nine meetings are dead even at 4 wins each, and those games averaged just over 2 goals. A 1-1 finish looks the fairest result, and it suits us fine. The worry here is real. Oviedo have been making far more chances than their scoring shows, and one is going to go in sooner or later. If that finally happens in front of their own crowd, an Oviedo win would beat us. We still want Burgos, the steadier side, to come away with something.

💬 Barcelona are flying and Valencia are in no state to stop them. Barcelona have won all three league games and scored twelve goals doing it, with a 5-0 and a 5-2 in there. Across their last 14 games they have won 11, and 7 of those wins came by 2 or more goals. On the road they average 2 goals a game. Valencia sit 18th with one point from three games and a single goal scored. Injuries have wiped out most of their attack, with the striker Umar Sadiq and the winger Luis Rioja among eight players out. Corberan will pack the defence and try to survive rather than trade punches. That plan can hold for an hour, but it rarely lasts ninety minutes against this Barcelona side. A 0-2 away win looks the likely finish, the opener before the hour and a second goal late. That is what we need, because Barcelona have to win by 2 or more. There is a catch. Valencia beat Barcelona 3-1 at this ground in May, so the deep block has worked here before, and Barcelona are without Frenkie de Jong. A scrappy one goal win leaves us short. We are still with the much better team here.

💬 Arsenal have owned this matchup and they are much the stronger side at home. They have won 12 of the last 20 meetings with Chelsea. At the Emirates they have won 6 of their last 9, scoring more than a goal a game and letting in well under a goal. Across their last 17 games Arsenal have not lost by 2 or more goals once. Chelsea are dangerous going forward and have scored seven in their last two league games, a 4-3 over Brighton and a 3-2 at Fulham. Away from home they are a different team. Chelsea have won once in their last 5 away games and let in more than 2 goals a game on those trips. Arsenal will see plenty of the ball and should get the first goal. A clean sheet is asking a lot, with William Saliba out for months and Timber likely to miss out too. A 2-1 Arsenal win looks the finish, and that keeps us on the right side. The warning is clear. All five of the last meetings finished within a single goal, and one was a 1-1 tie, so Chelsea only need a point to spoil this. Their forwards are in good form and Arsenal's back line is patched up. We are still with Arsenal to win this.

💬 This matchup has been tight for years, and both teams come in short of forwards. The last five meetings finished 1-1, 1-0, 0-0, 2-2 and 3-1, so three of the five had two goals or fewer. Across the last 20 meetings there have been 7 ties, which tells you how often this game gets stuck. Frankfurt look like a scoring machine on paper, but that is mostly one night, an 11-0 cup win over a fifth tier side. Take that game out and they score under 2 goals a game. At home Frankfurt have won once in their last 5, scoring more than a goal a game and letting in almost 2. Augsburg are in good form, sixth after a 3-0 win over Schalke, and they have won 8 of their last 15 games. Both squads are short up front. Augsburg are missing the striker Steve Mounie and Kevin Jakic, and Frankfurt are without Ansgar Knauff and Jessic Ngankam. A 1-1 finish looks right, and a quiet, slow evening sits comfortably inside what we want. There is a way this goes wrong. Frankfurt opened the season with a 3-3 tie at Union Berlin, and Augsburg's games average just over 3 goals in total. Two open teams can put four on the board in a hurry. The history of this meeting says the low scoring game is the right side.

💬 Bologna are not scoring at all and Sassuolo go missing on the road, and that is the whole case for a quiet game. Bologna have played two league games and lost both 0-1, so they are still waiting on their first goal of the season. They are also missing Orsolini, their main threat from wide areas, along with El Azzouzi. Sassuolo travel badly. They have no win in six away games, with two ties and four defeats, and they score less than a goal a game on the road. Five players are ruled out for them, including Boloca, Kone and Paz. They also had only four days off after a cup tie. Bologna had six. Tired legs and a patched up team rarely produce a goal rush. The history backs it up. The last two meetings between these clubs finished 1-0 and 1-1, and Sassuolo let in just over a goal a game. A 1-0 Bologna win looks the most likely score, decided by one moment of quality in a flat game at the Dall'Ara. The honest worry is that Sassuolo have been making plenty of chances in their last two games. A team that keeps getting into good areas eventually starts scoring, and Bologna are due a goal of their own. We still want the quiet game here.

💬 Alaves have been hard to score against on their own ground, and that is the base for this pick. They have kept a clean sheet in both home league games this season, beating Getafe 3-0 and Villarreal 1-0. They also come in fresh, with nine days since their last game against six for Osasuna. Osasuna are a different team on the road. They have won once in six away trips, with one tie and four defeats. On the road they score just over a goal a game and let in almost 2. They are without Oroz and Herrando from the spine of the side, and Rosier is a fitness doubt. Osasuna have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 15 games either, so they are in no shape to take this one over. Alaves should keep the ball, push Osasuna deep and win it without ever needing a third goal. A 2-0 home win is the shape we expect. The clear worry is the history. Osasuna have won 10 of the last 18 meetings and won 3-0 at Mendizorrotza last December, so this game has not gone Alaves's way for years. Alaves are patched up at the back too, with Garces suspended and M. Rodriguez injured. Form on the day still points to Alaves, and we are backing them.

💬 These two have a long history of low scoring games, and that is the heart of this pick. Their last 18 meetings have averaged just over 2 goals in total, and 0-0, 0-1 and 0-1 are among the last five results. Malaga have created almost nothing since coming up. They sit 20th with one point from three games, and they are missing five players, including Calero, Diarra and Murillo, with striker Nino a doubt. At home they let in a goal a game across seven games, winning two, tying four and losing one, so their games there tend to stay tight. Levante are a different side away from home. They have won once in eight away trips, with three ties, and they score less than a goal a game on the road. They are also without Etta Eyong, which takes a chunk out of the attack. Put a blunt home team against a travelling side that does not score and a 1-1 looks the likeliest score at La Rosaleda. The honest worry is what Levante can do on a good day. Their games have just over 3 goals in total on average, and they put five past Real Betis a week ago. That was at their own ground though, and on the road they have looked flat. We are happy to take the quiet game.

💬 Casa Pia have not scored a single league goal this season. They sit bottom with no points from four games, losing 0-1, 0-2, 0-7 and 0-1. A side that cannot score rarely takes part in a busy game. Vitória are hard to score against at their own ground. They have let in well under a goal a game there, so Casa Pia's best hope is one lucky moment. Vitória are not scoring freely either. They have one win in their last five, they score just over a goal a game, and they are missing Gui and Óscar Rivas up front. The history here is the clearest part of the case. The last 9 meetings have averaged under a goal a game in total, and only 3 of Vitória's last 11 games have had 3 or more goals. Casa Pia have been in just 4 such games in 17. It all points one way: a slow game that Vitória control and win with a single goal, most likely 1-0. Two honest warnings. Casa Pia won at Guimarães in May, so an early away goal would change the whole shape of this. Their 0-7 loss also shows they can fall apart, and a night like that would blow past our read. Vitória's blunt attack makes both of those unlikely, and we want the quiet game.

💬 This game has a long history of staying tight. The last 20 meetings have averaged under 2 goals in total, 9 of them ended tied, and the last two both finished 0-0. Juventus arrive with their attack picked apart. Yildiz and Thuram are out, Cabal and Ekhator are injured too, and Cambiaso, McKennie and Zhegrova are all doubtful. What Juventus still have is a defense. They have lost one of their last 14 games. At their own ground they let in well under a goal a game, and only 3 of those 14 games had 3 or more goals. Milan are not a side that blows games open either. They score just over a goal a game and let in just over a goal a game. On the road Milan score about a goal a game and let in under one. They travel well and defend properly, which is what keeps big games quiet. The likely finish is 1-1, an even night where both sides land a goal and nobody finds a winner. That fits a low scoring read. The warning is that Milan have scored twice in each of their opening two league games. They beat Venezia 2-0 and Torino 2-1, so they can punish a short handed Juventus. Juventus's own record says goals stay scarce in this one, and we want the tight game.

💬 Paris FC are the harder side to beat here. They have lost only 2 of their last 14 games, and they have not lost by 2 or more goals once in that run. On the road they are stubborn: five ties in seven away games, letting in under a goal a game. That is exactly the shape that keeps them close. They sit 5th, four places above Marseille, and this year they beat PSG 2-1 and Monaco 4-1, so big names do not scare them. Marseille are a different team at the Vélodrome, where they score more than 2 goals a game. Away from there they have been poor, and across their last 16 games they have won 7, tied 3 and lost 6. That is a good home side, not a dominant one, and they have won by 2 or more goals in only 3 of those 16. Both squads are short. Paris FC miss Ikoné, Mbemba, Otávio and Sangui, and Marseille are without Kondogbia and Nnadi. This reads as an even, physical game that neither side runs away with, and 1-1 looks the most likely finish. Paris FC come out of that fine. The worry is real. Marseille won 5-2 in one of the two previous meetings, and their home scoring can punish a patched up back line. We are still with Paris FC to stay in the fight.

💬 Almería's home games are busy ones. They have won 5 of 7 at their own ground, and those games have averaged almost 4 goals in total, because they attack well and defend loosely. Across everything they have played, 9 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals, and their games average just over 3 goals in total. That is a side that does not do quiet afternoons. Cádiz help the case at the other end. They have let in more than 2 goals a game on the road, and almost 2 a game overall. On top of that, 7 of their last 12 games had 3 or more goals. They score about a goal a game themselves, so they do not go silent for long. The read here is a 2-1 Almería win. They should have enough in front of their own crowd, but not enough to close the game out early, and that shape brings the goals we want. Two honest worries. Cádiz have tied all three league games so far behind a five man defense, and one of those finished 0-0. The 17 meetings between these two have averaged just over 2 goals, so the history is not on our side. What both defenses are doing right now matters more than that old record, and we want the busier game.

💬 Sevilla have owned this matchup for years. They have won 13 of the last 20 meetings, and Espanyol have managed just 3 wins and 4 ties in that time, with Sevilla winning 2-1 in May. That history counts when there is so little between the two sides. Espanyol have also lost their front line for this one. Kike García, Javi Puado and Bryan Zaragoza are all unavailable, which takes out three of their attacking options. Espanyol have won only 3 of their last 14 games, score about a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. They have won by 2 or more goals just twice in those 14, so blowing a side away is not something they do. Sevilla are not travelling well either. They have won 6 and lost 7 of their last 13, and away from home they let in more than a goal a game. Neither team looks convincing at either end, which is why this shapes up as an untidy, even match. A 1-1 is the most likely finish, and a game Sevilla do not lose is what this pick needs. Two honest warnings. Sevilla have not tied a single game in their last 13, so they tend to win or lose outright. Espanyol beat Levante 3-0 on their own ground this year and can hurt people there. We still side with the away team.