AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.25: This derby has a long habit of staying tight. The last 20 meetings averaged under 3 goals, and the last five ended 2-1, 1-2, 0-0, 1-0 and 1-2. Hammarby are the better team here and they are also the more careful one. They have won 10 of their last 19 games and let in less than a goal a game. They are a different side on the road, where they have been far less dominant. AIK have been winning without playing well. They have won 9 of their last 18 and score more than a goal a game, but they have been badly outplayed in recent weeks. Their squad is stretched too, with Ayari, Cisse, Kouame and several others unavailable. Hammarby come in on four days rest after a cup tie, so heavy legs and changes are likely. None of that points to an open, end to end derby. A 1-2 to Hammarby is the read. That is a low scoring game, but it leaves us little room, so we need it to stay tight. The warning is that AIK's games have not been quiet ones. Twelve of their last 18 had 3 or more goals, and Hammarby have won by 2 or more in 8 of their last 19. If Hammarby get on top early, the goals could come. We still expect a tight derby.