Chelsea vs Brighton — Tips & Analysis

Brighton +0.75: Brighton have owned this game lately, and that is where we start. They have won the last four meetings, 3-0, 3-1, 3-0 and 2-1. Chelsea have not beaten them in any of those. Chelsea's wider run is poor as well. They have won only 5 of their last 14 games and lost 8, and they have won by 2 or more goals just twice in that run. They score just over a goal a game and let in more than that. Both first choice midfielders are in doubt, with Caicedo not certain to be fit and Enzo Fernandez perhaps not starting. Brighton have won 9 of their last 16 games and let in less than a goal a game. Both teams played three days ago, so tired legs and changes are likely on each side. That is the sort of night that finishes level rather than open. A 1-1 is the read, and a share of the points does the job for us. The catch is Brighton's attack. Mitoma, Minteh and Ferguson are all out, and Brighton score only a goal a game on the road. Chelsea won 3-2 at Fulham and can hurt anyone on their day. We still want Brighton with the head start.