Tips — Monday, 31 August 2026

💬 Roma on the road are nothing like the team that wins so easily at home. They score almost 2 goals a game away and let in almost 2. At home they score more than 2 and let in 1 a game. That gap is why we are with Lecce here. Lecce are hard work to play against at Via del Mare. They score less than a goal a game at home, so they will sit deep, stay compact and make Roma work for every opening. They opened this season with a 2-0 win at Venezia. Roma travel without both first choice full backs, M. Bah and Lorenzo Pellegrini, and Devyne Rensch is a doubt as well. That takes width out of a team that likes to build slowly and stretch you. The last five meetings finished 0-1, 0-2, 0-1, 1-4 and 0-0, and the last 15 meetings averaged almost 3 goals. Lecce hardly ever score against Roma, but they rarely get run over either. A 0-1 Roma win is the most likely score, and a narrow away win is fine for us. Now the honest part. Roma have won five games in a row and beat Fiorentina 4-0 last time out. Lecce have also lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 15, so a heavy night is possible. We still expect Lecce to keep this within a goal.

💬 Mjallby turn up here in poor shape. They have not won away from home in any of their last seven trips, taking four ties and three losses. On the road they let in almost 2 goals a game. This is also their second game in four days, after a 0-3 loss at Red Bull Salzburg closed out a draining European run. Djurgarden have had a full week off since winning 3-0 at Malmo. The hosts score just over 2 goals a game and let in just over one, and they have won 9 of their last 17. Mjallby have won only 3 of their last 16 and score just over a goal a game, so little is coming back the other way. They are also without T. Miettinen and T. Stavitski. The shape of this one looks clear. Djurgarden get in front and then control it, with 2-0 the score that fits best. The honest worry is that Djurgarden have been oddly ordinary on this ground, winning 4, tying 1 and losing 4 at home. They have also won by 2 or more goals in only 6 of their last 17. This head to head is dead level at 6 wins each across 15 meetings. We still think the fresher, stronger side has enough to win this one well.

💬 Brommapojkarna arrive with the healthier squad and the better run of play. Gais are missing five men, including K. Holmen, J. Lindberg and G. Lundgren through injury and H. Sletsjoe through suspension. Brommapojkarna have one player out. Gais have also stopped scoring, drawing a blank in both of their last two league games, a 0-2 loss at Hammarby and a 0-1 home defeat to Malmo. What Gais do have is a superb home record. They have let in just three goals in nine games at Gamla Ullevi, winning five, tying three and losing one. That is the one thing standing in the way here. Brommapojkarna score more than a goal a game and have been making plenty of chances without much reward. Only a point splits these two in the table, and they already tied 1-1 back in July. The last nine meetings are shared three wins each way. Everything points at another close, careful night, and a 1-1 tie looks the most likely result. That is enough for the visitors here. The risk is simple. Gais are very hard to beat on this ground, and one set piece or one mistake could take the game away from Brommapojkarna. We are still happy to back the fitter side with a start.

💬 Goals follow these two around. Their last 19 meetings have averaged 4 goals a game, and the two most recent finished 3-2 and 5-1. Sirius have been the best team in the league this season, winning 14 of their last 19 and leading the table by six points. They score more than 2 goals a game, and 15 of their last 19 games had 3 or more goals in them. Their back line has gone soft though. Sirius have let in nine goals across their last three league games, a 0-3 against Hacken, a 3-4 at Mjallby and a 2-2 with Brommapojkarna. Malmo bring goals of their own. They score 2 a game, and 14 of their last 18 games had 3 or more. Malmo have also been far better on the road, winning 6, tying 1 and losing 2. Sirius should still win this. They sit 16 points clear of Malmo and the visitors travel with six men missing. But this Sirius defence is not keeping a clean sheet right now, so a 3-1 home win looks the likeliest score. The worry is Malmo's last league game, a 3-0 home loss to Djurgarden in which they hardly made a chance. If they turn up that flat again, this could be a quiet, one-sided evening. Everything else here points at goals, and that is the side we are on.

💬 This one usually ends up level. Eight of the last 20 meetings between these two finished in a tie, and the series averages 2 goals a game. Osasuna do not blow anyone away. They have not won by 2 or more goals in any of their last 15 games, and they score just over a goal a game. Their record across that run is poor as well, 3 wins, 4 ties and 8 losses. Getafe have won 7 of their last 14 and let in only a goal a game. They are hard to beat even when they offer little going forward. They barely score away from home, under a goal a game, which is why a tight, low-scoring night is coming. Be clear about what this needs though. The single most likely score is a narrow 1-0 to Osasuna, and that result beats this bet. Getafe have to come away with at least a point from a game that has produced eight ties in 20 tries. The warning is real. Getafe played in Belgrade on Thursday night and lost 1-2, and they are without C. Uche and Juanmi. Osasuna have also started this season creating far more than they have allowed. Even so, Getafe do their best work in exactly this kind of scrappy, tight game, and we will take them to leave Pamplona with something.

💬 Bologna are the fresher, healthier side and they already know how to get a result on this ground. They won 1-0 in Bergamo back in May, and their away record across the sample is 5 wins and 2 losses from 7 trips. Atalanta got home from a European trip to Israel on Thursday night with 4 days to recover. Bologna have had a full week. Atalanta also have a problem in front of goal at home. They have scored under a goal a game across eight home games there, taking 2 wins, 3 ties and 3 losses. Their 2-1 win over Sassuolo flattered them badly, because they were well second best on chances. Hien and K. Sulemana are out for Atalanta, with three more doubtful, against only two Bologna absentees. Bologna let in one goal at home to Lazio and created far more than their visitors did. Both sides score just over a goal a game, and the last 20 meetings averaged just over 2 goals, so a 1-1 tie fits this best. The catch is history and early form. Atalanta have won 11 of the last 20 meetings and won their opening league game. Bologna are still waiting for their first. We still like the visitors to leave Bergamo with something.

💬 The gap in class here is real. Saint Etienne have won all three of their league games, scoring ten goals and letting in one. That run reads 3-0 at Sochaux, 3-1 against Clermont and 4-0 against Grenoble, and it has them top of the table. Dijon have just come up and sit 17th with two points and two goals from three games. Dijon are not a soft touch at home though. Every one of their league games so far has finished with two goals or fewer. They have let in only a goal a game across their last 14. That record was built mostly a division below, so it flatters them a little. Saint Etienne let in under a goal a game across their last 15, and they won by 2 or more goals in 6 of them. Put a calm, controlled away side against a stubborn home one and you get a low-scoring night decided by one moment of quality. A narrow away win is the read, with 0-1 the likeliest score. The worry is that Saint Etienne have not travelled well over a longer run, winning only 1 of 6 away games in the sample. They are also without Florian Tardieu, Everson Jr and Enzo Tchato. We still think the better team has too much here.

💬 Arsenal win plenty of games. They just do not win them by much. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 17, and their games have just over 2 goals in them in total. Villa come into this with their forward line taken apart. Ollie Watkins has gone to Al Hilal, Leon Bailey and Brian Madjo are out, Tammy Abraham has a groin problem and Joao Gomes is suspended. Even so, this is a side that stays in games. Villa have lost by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 14. Arsenal have their own problems. William Saliba and Jurrien Timber are both missing, so the back four has to be rebuilt. Martinelli, Gabriel Jesus and Fabio Vieira are all on their way out of the club, which leaves Arsenal thinner going forward. Put that together and you get a slow game that Arsenal control without ever pulling clear. They go in front, then they protect it. A 1-0 Arsenal win is the most likely score here. The risk is a fair one. Villa were beaten 0-4 at Brighton in their only league game, and a team with no proper striker can get picked off late. We think this one stays tight, and we are happy to be on Villa.

💬 Braga do not lose at home, and Vitória do not travel well. That is the heart of it. Braga have gone 6 home games unbeaten, winning 4 and tying 2, and they let in less than a goal a game there. They have lost only 2 of their last 14 games in all. This is not a team that runs up big wins. It is a team that scores first and then makes the game dull. Their last three European nights finished 0-0, 2-0 and 0-0. Vitória have lost 4 of their 6 away games. They score under a goal a game on the road and let in more than 2. Their last five results read one win and four defeats. Braga also lead the last 20 meetings 11 wins to 4. Expect Braga to get in front and then guard it rather than chase a second. A 1-0 home win is the most likely score, and that is enough for us. Two warnings come with it. Braga had a squad wide bout of food poisoning that forced a game to be called off, so nobody knows how fresh they really are. Vitória have also been playing better than their results show, creating far more than they have scored lately. We still make Braga the side to be on.

💬 Barcelona have started this season at full speed and Rayo arrive short of their best players. Barcelona opened with a 5-0 win at Elche and then beat Athletic Club 2-0. They have won 11 of their last 14 games and let in under a goal a game. Rayo are missing their captain and main creator Isi Palazon, centre back Luiz Felipe and goalkeeper Batalla, with Kumbulla a doubt as well. They score just over a goal a game and they will not come here and open up. Rayo's plan at Camp Nou is always the same. Sit deep, keep the game small, hope for one chance. It has worked before. The last five meetings finished 1-0, 1-1, 1-0, 2-1 and 3-0. Barcelona still lead the last 20 meetings 14 wins to 3. The most likely single score is a 2-0 Barcelona win, so we want them to find a third. With Rayo patched up at the back and Barcelona creating this much, that third goal is a fair ask. The risk is the shape of the game. Rayo have lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 16, and they are hard to break down when they sit in. Barcelona also have 4 days' rest to Rayo's 11, with Gavi and Frenkie de Jong out. We are still backing Barcelona to win this by a distance.