SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.5: Goals follow Freiburg around, and that is the heart of this one. 15 of their last 17 games have had 3 or more goals, and they score more than 2 goals a game at home. They have won 5 of their 8 games at Europa-Park and 10 of their last 17 overall. Werder Bremen give plenty back at the other end. They let in more than a goal a game, and 8 of their last 14 games also had 3 or more goals. Bremen are missing both of their first choice full backs, Agu and Weiser, plus striker Topp. That is a back line asking to be pulled apart by Freiburg's wide players. Freiburg have won the last four meetings between these two, including 3-0 and 5-0 wins. Bremen have enough up front to get on the board this time. A 2-1 home win is the most likely score, and that is a busy enough game for us. The risk is the calendar. This is Freiburg's fourth game in 11 days, coming just 3 days after a European playoff, so tired legs and changes are possible. Werder have had 8 days off and can sit deep to protect themselves. It is also the first weekend of the season, when new signings and new shapes can make games cagey. We still want the goals here.