Casa Pia vs Moreirense — Tips & Analysis

Moreirense +0.25: Casa Pia have not scored a single league goal this season. They lost 0-2 at Gil Vicente, 0-7 at home to Benfica and 0-1 at Maritimo. That is the main reason we side with Moreirense here. Casa Pia are the weaker team in almost every way. Across their last 17 games they score less than a goal a game and let in more than a goal a game. They have won only 2 of those 17 and sit bottom of the table. Nothing about them suggests they hurt anyone. Moreirense are hardly flying either. They score under a goal a game and have won 3 of their last 15. Their travel record is poor, at 1 win, 2 ties and 4 losses on the road. What they do have is fresh legs, with 14 days since their last game against Casa Pia's 6. Two weak attacks usually means a nervy, low quality game decided by one moment. A 0-1 away win looks the likeliest score, and Moreirense are the side more likely to find that moment. The doubt here is real. Casa Pia have tied four of their last eight at home, so a 0-0 is very much in play. Moreirense have also lost four of their seven away games. We still want the visitors: they are fresher, and the home side simply cannot score.