Alaves vs Malaga — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: Malaga barely score, and that is the simplest reason to back a quiet game. They score under a goal a game, and only 4 of their last 15 games have had 3 or more goals in them. They have tied seven of those 15, so their games often end level and low. Malaga arrive bottom of the table with four points from nine games and five players unavailable, including Cruz, Lobete, Munoz and Murillo. A side in that spot defends deep and plays for a clean sheet. Alaves are the better team, but they are in poor shape themselves. They have lost four of their last five and score under 2 goals a game. They are also missing Garces and Rodriguez, so their own side is unsettled. Put a struggling attack against a team set up to survive and you get a grind. A 1-0 Alaves win is the most likely score, and a single goal keeps this well on track. The risk is that Alaves are the stronger side by a long way. They have had 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 16 games, and Malaga have lost by 2 or more in 4 of their last 15. One early goal could open this up. We still expect a low-scoring night.