Derry City vs Dundalk — Tips & Analysis

Derry City -0.5: Derry have made the Brandywell hard work for visitors. They have won 6 of 10 at home and let in just over a goal a game there, and their last two home league games both finished 1-0. Dundalk arrive with no win in five, and their last five results read two ties and three losses. They are also missing five players, including goalkeeper Conor Kearns. Derry are not flawless either. They have won 9 of their last 20 and score more than a goal a game, and they play this one without Carl Winchester and Darragh Markey. The difference is that Derry keep finding a way to win the tight games at home. Dundalk do travel better than they host, with 4 wins, 4 ties and 3 losses on the road against 2 wins, 1 tie and 6 losses at home. Derry also had only 4 days off after Monday's game, to Dundalk's 6. So this is a win to grind out, not a stroll. A 1-0 Derry win is the most likely finish, and that is exactly what this bet needs. The warning is the history. These two tied 9 of their last 20 meetings, and two of this year's four games finished 2-2. Derry have also been winning without creating much, and that cannot last forever. We still want Derry to win this game.