Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice — Tips & Analysis

Nice +0.25: Nobody wins this game by much, and that is the heart of the case for Nice. Brest have won by 2 or more goals just once in their last 13 games. They have tied six of those 13, so level football is their normal setting. Brest are also leaky at Stade Francis-Le-Ble, letting in more than a goal a game across their last six home games. Their home scoring looks better than it is. Take away one 5-1 win over Angers and the home games we can see gave them 0, 1, 1 and 2 goals. Nice are no better going forward. They score just over a goal a game, and they have tied six of their last 15. They are also without Abdi, Abergel, Bombito and Mendy, four first-team players. That unsettled side is why we are not asking Nice to win the game. The history backs the same story. Six of the last 19 meetings ended level, and those games averaged under 3 goals. A 1-1 is the most likely score, and a tight, level night is exactly what we want. The real worry is Nice on the road. They have won once in their last eight away games, scoring under a goal a trip, and Brest have won two of their last five. If Brest get an early goal, Nice have not shown they can answer. We still think this one stays close.