Tips — Sunday, 16 August 2026

💬 Goals follow Hoffenheim around, and this is the sort of loose game where they pile up. Hoffenheim's games produce almost 4 goals between the two teams on average, and 12 of their last 15 had 3 or more. They score almost 2 goals a game and let in 2 a game, so they are rarely part of a quiet afternoon. Tottenham are not tight either. Their games have just over 3 goals in them on average, and 9 of their last 14 had 3 or more. They won the first half of this double header 3-0 on Saturday. The set up points the same way. These clubs arranged two friendlies in 48 hours. This one is played behind closed doors at the training ground, so both managers will name the players who sat out Saturday. That means two patched up teams with almost no defensive rhythm. The two earlier meetings between these clubs averaged 4 goals. A 2-1 Tottenham win is the honest read, and the third goal is what this rides on. The warning is simple. It is a friendly, so team selection and effort are anyone's guess, and both benches will empty. Two second string sides can also cancel each other out in a slow, careful game with nothing riding on it. We still want the goals here.

💬 Cottbus look better on paper than they really are. Nine of their last ten results came in the 3. Liga, so that run was built against third tier teams. Their one game at this level was a 3-1 home win over Hannover, and the score flattered them badly. Hannover created far more than the result suggests. Bielefeld are a much better side at home than their league position says. They score 2 goals a game there and let in just over one, and they have lost only one of their six home games. On the road it flips: they score just over a goal and let in 2. Cottbus do carry a threat. They score almost 2 goals a game, let in just over one, and have won 8 of their last 13 games. They have not met a side playing at Bielefeld's home level yet. The six meetings between these clubs have averaged more than 3 goals, so expect an open, back and forth game. A 2-1 home win looks the most likely score, and that lands this pick. The risk is real. Cottbus sit fifth after winning four of their last five, and Bielefeld are 15th and still without a point. If the promoted side is the real thing, this goes wrong quickly. We still trust the hosts on their own ground.

💬 Wolfsburg's away games are open, and that is the heart of this pick. On the road they score more than a goal a game and let in more than 2 a game, far looser than at home. They have won just 2 of their last 16 games, and they arrive freshly relegated. Their injury list still includes Christian Eriksen and Rogerio. Hannover are the livelier team going forward. They score almost 2 goals a game, and their games have just over 3 goals in them on average. 9 of their last 16 produced 3 or more. They lost 1-3 at Cottbus on the opening day, and all three goals came from a penalty, a free kick and a corner. The goals are there even on their bad days. These two also have a history of open games. The last 20 meetings have averaged just over 3 goals. A 2-1 home win is the honest read, and the third goal is what this rides on. The warning is Hannover's home habit. They tied five of their eight home games, and a tight, low scoring game is always in play here. Wolfsburg tied 6 of their last 16 as well, so both sides know how to keep a game flat. We still lean to the busier game.

💬 Both of these teams play in busy games. Darmstadt's games have just over 3 goals in them on average, and Dresden's are close behind at almost 3. Nine of Dresden's last 14 games had 3 or more goals, and 9 of Darmstadt's last 15 did too. Dresden are strong at home, with 5 wins from 7, and they score just over 2 goals a game there. They lost 0-3 at Nurnberg a week ago, but that read far worse than it played. Darmstadt help the case at the other end. They have not won away in seven trips and they let in 2 goals a game on the road. Their opening game finished 2-2, and they took those two goals from very little. That is a team that keeps games alive without ever shutting them down. The last 12 meetings between these clubs have averaged 3 goals. A 2-1 Dresden win is the honest read, and it turns on that third goal. The one number against us is Dresden's home defense. They let in under a goal a game at the Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, so a 1-0 or 2-0 would not be a shock. Darmstadt have also tied three of their last five games, and their run has been slow and careful. We still want the busier game.

💬 Malaysia go into this semi final with their squad torn apart. FIFA and AFC sanctions over seven naturalised players have left them with only seven players from a previous match available, and several others are hurt. Malaysia's record looks fine on paper. They have won 9, tied 2 and lost 3 of their last 14, and they let in under a goal a game. At home they have won 6 and tied 1 of their 7. But that was built by the players they can no longer pick. That run beat Laos, Nepal and the Philippines, and it included a 4-0 win over Vietnam. Vietnam are in a very different place. They have won 12 of their last 14 games and topped their group unbeaten, scoring 13 goals and letting in one. On the road they have won six of their last seven, scoring more than 2 a game and letting in under one. They have also won by 2 or more goals in 9 of their last 14. Malaysia have lost 9 of the last 12 meetings between these two. This is the first leg of a two legged tie, so Vietnam can be patient and pick their moment as legs tire. A 0-2 Vietnam win is the read, and that is the sort of margin we are after. The squad news comes from press reports, not official team lists. If more of those players are cleared, this tightens up quickly. We are still with Vietnam.

💬 Bahia have stopped scoring, and Chapecoense were never scoring much anyway. Bahia's last four league games finished 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 and 1-1. Four goals in four games is the clearest guide we have to what is coming. Chapecoense are bottom of Serie A with 10 points from 21 games and a goal difference of minus 23. They score just over a goal a game and have lost 9 of their last 18. Six players are ruled out, including Bolasie, Joao Paulo and Victor Caetano, so a sudden burst of goals from them is hard to picture. Bahia are not much livelier. They also score just over a goal a game, and they have tied 7 of their last 18. They sit sixth and are chasing a Libertadores place, which points to a careful night rather than an open one. Ademir is suspended, and Erick, Everton Ribeiro and Leo Vieira are all out. These two are quiet against each other as well. Their last 13 meetings have averaged under 2 goals in total. A 0-1 Bahia win is the read, most likely from a set piece or a late break, and a game like that lands well on our side. The honest warning is that both sides have had 3 or more goals in 11 of their last 18 games. This quiet spell is recent rather than permanent. We still want the low scoring game.

💬 Burnley cannot keep the ball out, and West Ham still have a Premier League forward line. That is the case for goals here. Burnley have not won any of their last 14 games. They let in almost 2 goals a game in that run, and they lost by 2 or more in 5 of them. Nicky Hayen is a new head coach with a much younger squad, and opening day under a new manager is rarely tidy at the back. West Ham kept Nuno Espirito Santo and most of their top flight players. Hermansen, Kilman, Ward Prowse, Bowen and Castellanos are all expected to start, with Manor Solomon added from Tottenham. West Ham have had 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 16 games. The recent meetings point the same way. The last five finished 0-2, 2-3, 2-2, 1-2 and 1-1, with West Ham unbeaten across the run. A 1-2 West Ham win is the read, and that is exactly the sort of game we are after. There are two real worries. Burnley score under a goal a game and have tied 5 of their last 14, so a 1-1 or a 1-0 is very much in play. Almost every number above comes from last season in the Premier League, with only a League Cup tie apiece since. Neither club has kicked a ball in the Championship yet. We are still backing the goals.

💬 Racing Santander are back in the top flight after 14 years, and the way they got here points to goals. They score more than 2 goals a game and let in almost 2. Their games produce just over 4 goals between the two teams, and 11 of their last 14 had 3 or more. Racing earned all of that in the second division, so those numbers may look bigger than they really are. The habit still matters. They will push forward on their first top flight night at El Sardinero in 14 years, and that leaves gaps behind them. Villarreal are the side to punish it. They finished third in La Liga last season and kept their best players together. They score almost 2 goals a game, and 10 of their last 16 games had 3 or more in them. A 1-2 to Villarreal is the most likely finish, and three goals is the busy night we are after. Two things could ruin it. The last 5 meetings between these two averaged under 3 goals in total, and Villarreal score only just over a goal a game on the road. Racing have also been off for 77 days, and rusty teams often start careful rather than open. We still expect this one to break open.

💬 Timing is the main reason this one is on. Schalke open their DFB Cup campaign at Hallescher on 24 August, so this is their last warm up and they should name close to a first choice side. Real Madrid are only in their fourth pre season game under Jose Mourinho. Schalke are playing well too. They have won 9, tied 3 and lost 1 of their last 13, and they let in just over a goal a game. They have lost by 2 or more only once in that run. At home they have been tighter still, letting in under a goal a game across seven games. They have kept the margin inside one goal in 10 of their last 13. Real have brought a strong squad, with Mbappe, Vinicius Jr, Bellingham, Valverde and Courtois all travelling. They score 2 goals a game. Their away record is ordinary though, 4 wins, 1 tie and 3 losses, and they have won by 2 or more in only 5 of their last 16. A 1-2 Real win in front of a full Veltins Arena is the read, and Schalke keeping it that close is all we need. The risk is plain. This is a friendly, and both managers will change most of the team at half time. Real have enough quality to pull clear if Schalke drop off for ten minutes. We are happy to take Schalke with the head start.

💬 Genoa do not score enough for this game to get busy. They scored under a goal a game last season, and they did not score at all in 6 of their last 10. That run includes 0-0 ties at Fiorentina and Atalanta. Only 6 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals in them, and their games produce just over 2 goals in total. Ascoli are built the same way at the other end. They have just come up from the third tier. They lost only 2 of their last 17 games, and they let in under a goal a game on the road. Then there is the timing. Genoa have not played a competitive game in 84 days, five of their players missed training this week, and their World Cup men are only just back. Rusty sides in August rarely trade chances early, and neither team has to chase a big win to go through. A 1-0 Genoa win is the read here, and that sits well inside what we want. Ascoli are the risk. They played 8 days ago and beat Potenza 3-1 to get here, so they are further along than Genoa and playing well. 10 of their last 17 games had 3 or more goals in them, so they are not a quiet side by nature. We still expect a low scoring night at the Ferraris.

💬 These two clubs play each other twice on the same day, six hours apart, so each game gets about half a squad. Neither manager will keep the same eleven on the pitch for 90 minutes, and that is the main reason we want goals here. Liverpool have let in more than a goal a game across their last 19, and 11 of those games had 3 or more goals in them. They lost 4-2 at home to Leeds two weeks ago. They are also without Joe Gomez, Giovanni Leoni, Hugo Ekitike, Conor Bradley and Jayden Danns. Como arrive playing well, with 11 wins from their last 18 and four wins in their last five. They score almost 2 goals a game and report no injury worries. Games involving Liverpool have just over 3 goals in them on average, counting both teams. 10 of Como's last 18 games also had 3 or more. A 2-2 is our read, and an open, loose game with chances at both ends gets there with room to spare. The risk is the nature of the night. This is a friendly, so team selection and effort are hard to call, and either manager can empty the bench and kill the tempo. Como's away defence has been the tightest part of their season, letting in a goal a game on the road. We still want the busier game.

💬 Espanyol open the season without both of their first choice forwards. Javi Puado is out with a knee problem until November and Kike Garcia is not due back until December. That takes the two main goal scorers out of a side who already found goals hard to come by. Espanyol won 2, tied 5 and lost 7 of their last 14 games. In their six home games they scored less than a goal a game, so even a modest away team can stay in this. Levante had the better season by some way. They won 7, tied 3 and lost 4 of their last 14 and they score more than a goal a game. They are happy to sit deep, keep the game slow and take the one chance that comes. The last two meetings between these clubs finished 0-0 and 1-1. Both squads have gone 85 days without a competitive game, and first weekend football is usually scrappy. A 0-1 Levante win looks the most likely score, and that is the sort of afternoon we are betting on. The honest worry is the road. Levante won 1, tied 2 and lost 4 of their away games last season and let in just over 2 goals a game in them. Roger Brugue is suspended as well. We still make Levante the better team and we want them here.

💬 Atletico-MG are patched up and short of rest, and that is why we side with Gremio. They played a Sudamericana away tie on 12 August and have had four days since. Gustavo Scarpa, L. Duarte, Indio and Patrick Silva are all out, and Lyanco is doubtful. Atletico-MG have won 9, tied 5 and lost 5 of their last 19, but they only score just over a goal a game. They have won by 2 or more in only 3 of those 19 games. Gremio have had eight days to get ready. They won 6, tied 5 and lost 5 of their last 16 and they score more than a goal a game. They are also hard to beat by much, losing by 2 or more in just 1 of their last 16. History is on their side too. Gremio have won the last three meetings and lead the last 20 games between the clubs 11 to 6. Two teams a few places apart in the table, both missing forwards, usually means a tight night. A 1-1 tie is our read, and that is a fine result for this pick. The catch is that Gremio are short up front as well. Tete is injured and Joao Pedro and Willian are not available, so goals may be scarce at their end too. We are still happy on Gremio's side of this one.

💬 Santos come to Sao Januario with their back line in pieces. Gustavo Henrique, Lucas Verissimo and Igor Vinicius are all out, and Moises is missing too. Vasco have made this ground hard to play at, letting in less than a goal a game across their 10 home matches. That is the way in for the home side. Vasco have won 6, tied 7 and lost 6 of their last 19 and they score just over a goal a game. They are not a big scoring team, but they defend their own box well. Santos have won 8, tied 5 and lost 4 of their last 17 and score almost 2 goals a game, so they still carry a threat. Both clubs played in the Sudamericana on 13 August and have had only three days since. This is a huge game at the bottom of the table. Vasco sit 18th and Santos 17th, level on 22 points from 21 games, so nobody will take a risk early. The most likely single score is 1-1, so be clear about the ask. This pick needs Vasco to win the game. A broken away defence and a tired trip across Brazil are how that happens. The worry is obvious. Vasco have tied 7 of their last 19 games and 4 of their 10 at home, which is the exact result that beats us. We still want Vasco to find a way to win it.

💬 Lazio's numbers look ordinary until you check the opponents. Their 6 wins, 4 ties and 5 losses in their last 15 came against Serie A sides. Inter twice, Roma, Napoli, Atalanta and Fiorentina all feature in the last ten. Mantova are a Serie B side who finished 11th, then lost their final warm up game 1-0 to Carpi of Serie C. That gap in class is the case here. Mantova also travel badly. They won 2, tied 1 and lost 5 in eight away games and let in more than a goal a game on those trips. Lazio have home advantage at the Olimpico and Gennaro Gattuso takes charge of his first competitive game. A new manager will want a clean, controlled night against a team from the division below. Both sides are cold, with 85 days since Lazio last played and 100 for Mantova. A 2-0 Lazio win is how this reads, with the game in hand long before the end. Two things could spoil it. This is the Round of 64, so a Serie A club often changes half its team, and a much changed Lazio would make this far closer. Lazio have also won by 2 or more in only 2 of their last 15 games, so a big win is not their habit. We are still with the better side to take control of this.

💬 Mirassol have not lost a home game all season. They have won 7 and tied 3 in ten games at their own ground, and they let in under a goal a game there. Their league position comes from the away trips, not from anything that happens here. Flamengo are the better side. They have won 8, tied 6 and lost only 2 of their last 16 games. They score almost 2 goals a game and they let in under a goal. The catch is what they actually do on the road. Flamengo have tied four of their nine away games, as many as they have won. The tie is one of the two things they do most on the road. They also arrive without four senior players. Alex Sandro, Everton, Luiz Araujo and Vitao are all out. Both clubs played in the Libertadores three days ago and both have second legs to come. That points to a controlled, slow away performance rather than a statement. A 1-1 is our read, and Mirassol holding them to that is the night this pick wants. The worry is Flamengo's ceiling. They have won by 2 or more in 6 of their last 16 games, so they can put a game away when they want to. Team news is late as well, and either side could make big changes. We still like Mirassol to stay with them.

💬 These two keep playing the same game. Their last four meetings finished 2-1, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-0, so none of them produced more than three goals. New York City come in with seven players ruled out. Their leading forward Martinez and Moralez are both out with knee problems, and Mercau is suspended on top of that. That takes most of the creativity out of a side who have won only 3, tied 3 and lost 4 at home this season. Philadelphia are the fitter team, with two doubts and three wins in their last five. The road is the worst part of their year though. They have one win in ten away from home. They have won 5, tied 5 and lost 10 of their last 20 games and they score more than a goal a game. Both teams played in midweek and have had three days off. Tired legs and a patched up home attack make for a slow night. A 1-1 is our read, and that leaves this pick plenty of room. The risk is Philadelphia's away defence. They have let in more than 2 goals a game on the road, so one loose spell can flip the whole thing. New York City have also had 3 or more goals in 11 of their last 20 games. We still want the quiet game.

💬 Portland's away season has fallen apart. They have 2 wins in 10 on the road and they let in more than 2 goals a game in those games. Now they travel two time zones east on two days of rest. Chicago are flying. They have won 12 of their last 20, and their last four in a row. That run includes a 2-1 at Cruz Azul and a 3-1 at home to Santos Laguna. At Soldier Field they score almost 2 goals a game and let in just over one. Portland can be beaten by a distance. They have lost by 2 or more in 7 of their last 20 games and they let in almost 2 goals a game. They are also without Aravena and Mosquera, and goalkeeper Pantemis is a doubt. Both teams played two days ago, so legs will be heavy and the game should open up. Our read is a 2-1 Chicago win, and that does not quite get this home. We want Chicago to win by 2, and a tired Portland back line is how that happens. The honest catch is that Chicago have won by 2 or more in only 5 of their last 20 games. Three of the four straight wins came against Mexican clubs in a cup, with only the 2-1 over Charlotte coming in the league. We are still with Chicago to win this clearly.

💬 Corinthians have nobody to play up front. Yuri Alberto, Vitinho, Kayke, Labyad and Andre are all out, and Pedro Raul has a rib problem, so Fernando Diniz has no fit senior centre forward. A team in that state does not suddenly start scoring goals. Corinthians were careful anyway. They let in under a goal a game at their own ground, where they have won 7 of 9. Only 6 of their last 18 games had 3 or more goals in them. Their games have just over 2 goals in them on average, counting both teams. Cruzeiro are built the same way. They have not lost away all season, 4 wins and 4 ties, and they let in under a goal a game on those trips. Only 6 of their last 18 games had 3 or more goals as well, and their matches have 2 goals in them on average. Corinthians also played in Argentina two days ago, a 0-0 at Rosario Central, with the second leg still to come. Two of the hardest teams in the division to score against meet here, and one of them has no striker. That points to 0-0, and that is our read. The warning is that these clubs have produced a 0-3 and a 1-2 in their last five meetings. Heavy changes for the return leg could open this up too. We still expect a quiet night.

💬 Vancouver are the better team in this one, and they meet a Seattle side in free fall. The Sounders have lost their last five league games and have slipped to ninth in the Western Conference. Seattle are also missing four players through injury, including forward J. Morris. Across their last 20 games they score just over a goal and let in more than a goal a game. Vancouver sit top of the Western Conference. They score almost 2 goals a game and let in just over one. They have won by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 20 games, and lost by that much only once. The worry is that both teams arrive out of sorts. Vancouver have not won in five. Seattle are a different side at Lumen Field. They are 6W-1D-3L there and score 2 goals a game, against under a goal a game on the road. Seattle have also won 10 of the last 20 meetings between these two, to Vancouver's 4. The most likely single score is 1-1, and a tie is not enough for us. This pick needs Vancouver to win the game. Their road record is tie heavy at 2W-5D-3L in ten trips, so another even game is a real danger. We still think the stronger side finds a way through.