Arminia Bielefeld vs Energie Cottbus — Tips & Analysis

Arminia Bielefeld -0.5: Cottbus look better on paper than they really are. Nine of their last ten results came in the 3. Liga, so that run was built against third tier teams. Their one game at this level was a 3-1 home win over Hannover, and the score flattered them badly. Hannover created far more than the result suggests. Bielefeld are a much better side at home than their league position says. They score 2 goals a game there and let in just over one, and they have lost only one of their six home games. On the road it flips: they score just over a goal and let in 2. Cottbus do carry a threat. They score almost 2 goals a game, let in just over one, and have won 8 of their last 13 games. They have not met a side playing at Bielefeld's home level yet. The six meetings between these clubs have averaged more than 3 goals, so expect an open, back and forth game. A 2-1 home win looks the most likely score, and that lands this pick. The risk is real. Cottbus sit fifth after winning four of their last five, and Bielefeld are 15th and still without a point. If the promoted side is the real thing, this goes wrong quickly. We still trust the hosts on their own ground.