Tips — Monday, 17 August 2026

💬 Pisa are the better team here, and that is the heart of this pick. They played last season in Serie A. Empoli played a division below in Serie B. Pisa's record of 1 win, 1 tie and 14 losses in 16 games looks grim. Then you see who they played. Napoli, Roma, Lazio, Torino and Como are all on that list. Those numbers make Pisa look far worse than they are against a team from the division below. They score less than a goal a game, so we are not expecting a big win. Empoli travel badly. They won none of their nine away games last season and score just over a goal a game. Both sides arrive cold. Pisa have not played a competitive game in 86 days, Empoli in 101. This is one match, the loser goes out, and a tie after 90 minutes brings extra time. Teams in that spot protect what they have instead of throwing men forward. A 1-0 to Pisa is how this most likely goes, decided by one moment from the home side. The warning is real. Empoli finished level or within one goal in 13 of their 16 games, so they are awkward to beat even when they are poor. We still want Pisa, at their own ground, against the weaker squad.

💬 The gap in class is what this pick rests on. Sassuolo spent last season in Serie A, playing Milan, Juventus, Fiorentina, Bologna and Torino. Cesena were a division below, and they were poor on the road. They scored 2 goals in 7 away games last season and won none of them. They have also lost by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 16 games. Sassuolo were strong at home, winning 5 of their 7 home games last season. They scored almost 2 goals a game there and let in a goal a game, and one of those wins was 2-0 against AC Milan. Recent history backs them too. Sassuolo have won three of the last five meetings with Cesena, and the last two finished 2-0 and 2-1. Both teams arrive cold, Sassuolo after 85 days without a game and Cesena after 101. That suits the better squad, who only need one clean spell to take control. A 2-0 home win is the read, a goal before the break and one after it. The worry is that Cesena games often die out. Three of their last ten finished 0-0 and they tied 6 of their 16, so a 1-0 grind would leave us short. Sassuolo also won by 2 or more only twice in their last 14, though that was against Serie A sides. We still back Sassuolo to win this by a couple of goals.

💬 Halmstad barely score, and that is the strongest reason to expect a quiet night. They have managed one goal across their last four league games. They sit bottom of the Allsvenskan on 7 points with a goal difference of minus 22, the worst in the division. On the road they have not won at all, taking 2 ties and 5 losses. They score less than a goal a game away from home and let in more than 2. Hacken are much the better side, but they grind out results rather than blow teams away. They have tied 7 of their last 16 games. At their own ground they score almost 2 goals a game. They keep the ball, take their time finding the opener, and then see it out. That mix points to a controlled game rather than a shootout. Thirteen of Halmstad's last 16 games finished with 3 goals or fewer. Hacken beat this same side 2-0 away four weeks ago. They are without B. Engdahl and F. Ohman through injury. A 2-0 home win looks like the shape of this one, and that leaves plenty of room. The danger is a collapse. Hacken beat Halmstad 4-0 back in March, and a side already cut adrift can fold once it goes behind. We still want the low-scoring game.

💬 Neither of these teams scores much, and that is the heart of the case. Cremonese scored under a goal a game across their last 15. Sampdoria were no better, also under a goal a game, and they let in just over a goal a game. The setting drags the goal count down too. This one is not being played in Cremona at all. The pitch there was wrecked by the August heat, so both clubs travel to Bolzano and neither gets a home crowd behind it. It is also the first competitive game of the season for both. Cremonese have gone 85 days without a match and Sampdoria 101. Cold sides in a knockout game tend to feel each other out rather than trade chances. Their history says the same. The last six meetings averaged just over 2 goals and produced three ties, including a 0-0 and two 1-1s. A 1-1 again is the likeliest finish, and a game in that range is what we want. Only the first 90 minutes count here, so extra time does not matter. There are real warnings. Both squads were rebuilt over the summer, so last season's numbers describe teams that no longer exist. Rusty legs can also mean sloppy defending and an early goal that opens things up. We still expect a tight, low-scoring night.

💬 Wrexham are not scoring, and that is the strongest reason to expect a quiet opening night. They did not score in three of their last four games. They are also without Josh Windass, last season's top scorer, through injury. Their away record reads 3 wins, 1 tie and 5 losses, with under a goal a game scored on the road. Cardiff look frightening on paper. They score just over 2 goals a game and have won 8 of their last 16. Those goals came in League One, though, against Northampton, Port Vale and Mansfield, a full division below Wrexham. At their own ground Cardiff were tidier than explosive. They won 5, tied 1 and lost 2 there, scoring almost 2 goals a game and letting in a goal a game. This is opening night and Cardiff's first game back in the Championship. Both sides will be nervous, and Wrexham are missing their main source of goals. A 1-0 to Cardiff is the likeliest finish, and one goal deciding it fits what both teams have been doing. The risk is that neither of these sides is reliably low scoring. Cardiff had 3 goals or more in 8 of their last 16 games, and Wrexham in 10 of their last 18. If Cardiff go ahead early, Wrexham have to come out and chase. We still want the tighter game.

💬 Elche are the reason to back goals here. Their games have almost 3 goals in total on average, and 9 of their last 15 finished with 3 or more. On the road they are looser again: they score a goal a game and let in 2. They have already shown what they can do at this ground. Elche won the last meeting at Riazor 4-0 in June 2025. Deportivo are a fine story but an untested one. They lost only 1 of their last 13 and let in under a goal a game. All of that came in the second division against Valladolid, Cadiz and Burgos, and this is their first La Liga game in years. They still score more than a goal a game, and at Riazor they will go after this one. Both attacks are short-handed. Elche are without A. Osorio, Diangana and Yago Santiago. Deportivo's main creator Yeremay is doubtful. That is why the single most likely score is a tight 1-0. So this needs the game to open up, and a one-goal night is not enough. Elche's habit of turning up in busy games is why we still want the goals.

💬 This is a relegation six-pointer, and those games are usually tight and nervous. Internacional sit 17th on 23 points and Remo are 18th on 22. The loser takes a real step toward going down, so neither side will take many chances. Internacional have not been creating much lately, and their league form reads five games without a win. They are a different team at their own ground, though. There they have won 5, tied 3 and lost 2, letting in under a goal a game. Even in a poor run the Beira-Rio has been hard to score at. Remo do not offer much either. They score just over a goal a game and have won 8 of their last 20. This is not an attack that blows games open. Put the pressure on top of that and this shapes as a game decided by one moment. A 1-0 to Internacional is the likeliest finish, and that keeps the goal count comfortably where we want it. The worry is team news. Internacional are missing six players including first-choice keeper S. Rochet, so the back line will not be the one behind those home numbers. Remo's away games have averaged 3 goals in total. We still expect a cagey, low-scoring night.