Vasco DA Gama vs Santos — Tips & Analysis

Vasco DA Gama -0.25: Santos come to Sao Januario with their back line in pieces. Gustavo Henrique, Lucas Verissimo and Igor Vinicius are all out, and Moises is missing too. Vasco have made this ground hard to play at, letting in less than a goal a game across their 10 home matches. That is the way in for the home side. Vasco have won 6, tied 7 and lost 6 of their last 19 and they score just over a goal a game. They are not a big scoring team, but they defend their own box well. Santos have won 8, tied 5 and lost 4 of their last 17 and score almost 2 goals a game, so they still carry a threat. Both clubs played in the Sudamericana on 13 August and have had only three days since. This is a huge game at the bottom of the table. Vasco sit 18th and Santos 17th, level on 22 points from 21 games, so nobody will take a risk early. The most likely single score is 1-1, so be clear about the ask. This pick needs Vasco to win the game. A broken away defence and a tired trip across Brazil are how that happens. The worry is obvious. Vasco have tied 7 of their last 19 games and 4 of their 10 at home, which is the exact result that beats us. We still want Vasco to find a way to win it.