Mirassol vs Flamengo — Tips & Analysis

Mirassol +0.75: Mirassol have not lost a home game all season. They have won 7 and tied 3 in ten games at their own ground, and they let in under a goal a game there. Their league position comes from the away trips, not from anything that happens here. Flamengo are the better side. They have won 8, tied 6 and lost only 2 of their last 16 games. They score almost 2 goals a game and they let in under a goal. The catch is what they actually do on the road. Flamengo have tied four of their nine away games, as many as they have won. The tie is one of the two things they do most on the road. They also arrive without four senior players. Alex Sandro, Everton, Luiz Araujo and Vitao are all out. Both clubs played in the Libertadores three days ago and both have second legs to come. That points to a controlled, slow away performance rather than a statement. A 1-1 is our read, and Mirassol holding them to that is the night this pick wants. The worry is Flamengo's ceiling. They have won by 2 or more in 6 of their last 16 games, so they can put a game away when they want to. Team news is late as well, and either side could make big changes. We still like Mirassol to stay with them.