Atletico-MG vs Gremio — Tips & Analysis

Gremio +0.75: Atletico-MG are patched up and short of rest, and that is why we side with Gremio. They played a Sudamericana away tie on 12 August and have had four days since. Gustavo Scarpa, L. Duarte, Indio and Patrick Silva are all out, and Lyanco is doubtful. Atletico-MG have won 9, tied 5 and lost 5 of their last 19, but they only score just over a goal a game. They have won by 2 or more in only 3 of those 19 games. Gremio have had eight days to get ready. They won 6, tied 5 and lost 5 of their last 16 and they score more than a goal a game. They are also hard to beat by much, losing by 2 or more in just 1 of their last 16. History is on their side too. Gremio have won the last three meetings and lead the last 20 games between the clubs 11 to 6. Two teams a few places apart in the table, both missing forwards, usually means a tight night. A 1-1 tie is our read, and that is a fine result for this pick. The catch is that Gremio are short up front as well. Tete is injured and Joao Pedro and Willian are not available, so goals may be scarce at their end too. We are still happy on Gremio's side of this one.