Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.75: Bahia have stopped scoring, and Chapecoense were never scoring much anyway. Bahia's last four league games finished 0-0, 0-0, 1-1 and 1-1. Four goals in four games is the clearest guide we have to what is coming. Chapecoense are bottom of Serie A with 10 points from 21 games and a goal difference of minus 23. They score just over a goal a game and have lost 9 of their last 18. Six players are ruled out, including Bolasie, Joao Paulo and Victor Caetano, so a sudden burst of goals from them is hard to picture. Bahia are not much livelier. They also score just over a goal a game, and they have tied 7 of their last 18. They sit sixth and are chasing a Libertadores place, which points to a careful night rather than an open one. Ademir is suspended, and Erick, Everton Ribeiro and Leo Vieira are all out. These two are quiet against each other as well. Their last 13 meetings have averaged under 2 goals in total. A 0-1 Bahia win is the read, most likely from a set piece or a late break, and a game like that lands well on our side. The honest warning is that both sides have had 3 or more goals in 11 of their last 18 games. This quiet spell is recent rather than permanent. We still want the low scoring game.